Mars Base Alpha

Mars base Alpha--2028

In a tweet (how else?) Musk said that the first Mars "city" could be completed by 2028.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has announced what may be the company’s most ambitious deadline yet, stating that he believes a full ‘Mars Base Alpha’ – a preliminary city on the Red Planet – could be completed as soon as 2028.

In essence, Musk has implied that SpaceX could go from completing the first prototype spaceship segments to a full-fledged Martian city in a decade, a goal that might be even more ambitious than President John F. Kennedy urging – in 1961 – the U.S. to commit itself to landing humans on the Moon “before this decade is out”. In fact, the comparison becomes increasingly apt after examining the finer details of both major proclamations.

For Kennedy’s famous May 1961 speech, NASA had launched its first astronaut ever – and only on a suborbital mission – less than three weeks prior, and would not place an astronaut in orbit for another nine months after that. This was perhaps the boldest aspect of Kennedy’s announcement – he wanted NASA to go from a tiny, suborbital rocket (Mercury-Redstone) to Saturn V – a rocket that could literally place five fully-loaded Redstone rockets into low Earth orbit in a single launch – in well under a decade.

Examining NASA in the early 1960s, the challenges ahead of SpaceX may be quite forgiving in comparison. While NASA had less than three years of experience launching extremely small launch vehicles and placing even smaller (but still pioneering) satellites and space probes into orbit prior to May 1961, SpaceX has a full 60 successful launches of its massive Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets to bastion its expertise, as well more than 30 successful rocket landings and 15 reuses of a number of those recovered Falcon 9 boosters.

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This is consistent with the timing of the lunar mission--2023, which implied that the Mars 2022/25 timing (2 cargo BFRs in 2022 and 2 cargo, two manned BFRs in 2025) has slipped to  2025/2027.  First will come the "hopper" tests (2019), with the BFS taking off vertically and then landing, every test taking it higher.  Then there will be the first orbital test of the BFR (booster) and the BFS (spaceship), with re-entry at high speeds, giving the first real test to the fins and canards and the heat shield (2020).  Then there will have to be several test orbits and landings with several days spend in orbit to test the life support systems before the BFS will be certified for manned travel.  Then there will be the circumlunar tests (10?), again without humans on board (2022).  Meanwhile more BFRs and BFSs will be being constructed. Remember that these will be the new workhorses of the SpaceX fleet, and SpaceX will have to make money while it is sinking billions into the BFR.   And a working BFR/BFS will be the best way to make money, as each launch of the BFR/BFS to LEO (low earth orbit) will cost less than the launch of the Falcon 1 according to Musk ($7 million in today's money) because the BFR will be fully re-usable.  SpaceX will be able to charge a lot more per launch and the profits will be used to fund a fleet of BFRs and BFSs.  It seems to me that this timetable is realistic (for once!)

Meanwhile, a whole host of other technologies will need to be developed for Mars Base Alpha.  There won't be any quick rescues from Earth, because spaceflight between Earth and Mars is only really feasible with current technology when Mars and the Earth are in opposition, i.e., roughly every 26 months.  So everything will have to work, reliably.

Life support?  Removing CO2 from the habitat air, and putting O2 back, with machinery which is robust and easy to maintain.    Techniques to extract nitrogen from the Martian atmosphere--essential for plant growth.  Machines to keep the atmosphere inside the domes and habitats balanced.  Treating human waste, to recycle water.  (The dry residue will be useful to create soil on Mars--organic material will be needed!)

Shelter?  Bigelow Aerospace's inflatable kevlar habitats.  Inflatable domes under a foot (300 cms) of regolith or ice to protect from solar and stellar winds.  Lava tubes, sealed in sections.

Energy?  Solar panels, except that dust storms complicate that, so prolly wind turbines and NASA's new kilopower nuclear generator.   (See this video about wind power on Mars.  Despite Mars's low air pressure, wind turbines could still manage 20% or more of the efficiencies they get on Earth.  Moreover, when there is a dust storm obscuring solar panels the wind speeds are much higher.)

Food?  The first mission will have to take 2 years of food.  But it will be far more economical to grow our own.  That means we have to manufacture soil.  All we'll have is toxic regolith.  Soil is a hugely complex organism.  We take it for granted on Earth.  But we will have to make it on Mars before we can grow vegetables, fruits and grains.

Communications?  A satellite relay on Mars akin to Spacex's Starlink planned for Earth.  Ironic that we'll have a satellite relay around Mars and a link with Earth before we'll have our first home-grown lettuce.

Propellant production?  An efficient machine to produce methane and oxygen for the return flights to Earth.  And possibly also as a store of energy.  Unlike on Earth, we would also have to make oxygen to burn the methane.

And those are just the beginning.  It seems to me, though, that the "Mars community" has accepted that we will be able to get to Mars, and is now seriously considering what we'll do and how we'll survive when we get there.  I hope I live to see the day the first manned BFRs land on Mars.

The first carbon-composite section of the BFS.  Note propellant tank on the left, and human-sized door on the right, for scale. (Source: Teslarati)

Yusaku Maezawa stands on the first BFR composite tank/fuselage section
(Source: Teslarati)