Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

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Sunday, May 20, 2018

Tesla Model 3 exceeds 4000 per week

From a commenter at the Tesla Motor Club (hat tip to CleanTechnica)

Report from Freemont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):

* 4290- Last 7 days production of M3
* 638- Last 24hrs production of M3

The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26-27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.

This is not inconsistent with Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 tracker, nor with Musk's comments in a leaked staff email.  However, over the last week fewer VINs were registered (possibly because of another scheduled shut down of the assembly line towards the end of the month), so Bloomberg's model predicts fewer assemblies next week and the week after.

Source: Bloomberg

I reiterate: by end June Tesla will have achieved at least a week of 5000+ model 3 production.  By end of Q4, they'll be running at 7000 a week.  Some of these will be directed to Canada and other international markets, but even assuming 20% are exported, US sales of the Model 3 alone will be running at double the rate of sales of all EVs in the US in 2017 (3800 per week.) 

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