US Business confidence suggests ongoing eco decline

The chart below shows US business confidence (estimated by the OECD) relative to the year-on-year change in real GDP.  It leads GDP by 3 or 4 months, so its sustained decline points towards further economic slowdown.  We shall see whether business confidence recovers over the next few months.  I suspect it won't, thanks to the trade war.  Economic activity is just going to keep on sliding.

Das ist aber sehr schade!