Model 3 deliveries

It's no secret that Model 2 production has been way behind target.  In the chart below, which compares GM's Bolt sales to Tesla's Model 3 sales, you can see how behind schedule Tesla is--Bolt sales in Novemnber are where Model 3 sales were planned to be by now.  Tesla had been hoping for 1000 deliveries of the Model 3 per week in December.  The Model 3 is a far superior car to the Bolt, but sells at roughly the same price.  If Model 3s were properly available, their sales would surely greatly exceed the Bolt's.

Source of data: InsideEVs.com

So, should we give up hope that Model 3 production will never pick up and that Tesla is finished?    Well, no.  The chart below shows Model 3  VINs as seen by the public (source Teslarati).  The first Model 3 built had a VIN of 1 (or close to; the relationship isn't exact)  Note that recent VINs are running above 2000.  Note also that the curve is exponential, as Tesla said it would be.

I also use Musk's behaviour as a guide.  At the International Aeronautical Congress in September, he was puzzingly distracted, even depressed.  Then there was the tweet of him camping on the roof of the gigafactory while he fixed the problems delaying production of the batteries used in the Model 3, camping because it would take too long to drive to the nearest town to spend the night at a motel.  What other chief exec would do that?  Then came the launch of the Tesla semi and the new Roadster, where he was very upbeat, even ebullient.

From the chart above, I estimate that production of the Model 3 has already reached 300 per week.   Their new target of 1000 per week by the end of March seems achievable.  But production actually has to be much higher than that.  Over 400,000 people have reserved a Model 3.  Production of 1000 a week equals just 52,000 a year. It would take 8 years to satisfy the pent up demand.   From 1000 a week, production will have to rise to 2000 and then to 4000 by the end of 2018.  The exponential curve will have to continue to steepen.  Can Tesla do it?  Yes, I think so.  The first few months were the hard bit. 

What happens when Tesla "uses up" all the reservations?  Nothing.  Tesla Model 3s will be ubiquitous.  Everybody will know someone who has one, someone who will give their family or friends test drives in their new car, someone who will extol the pleasures of owning and driving a Tesla.  And if that isn't enough, Tesla can start advertising.

This production schedule will double US EV/PHEV  sales by end 2018.  And that's without the new longer-range Nissan Leaf or the Bolt., and there could easily be a 50%+ increase from those heights in 2019.  Which is vital.  We must cut carbon emissions as rapidly as possible.