They had no air force, they had no navy

 By Broelman

The Ukraine war is becoming Putin's Vietnam

 From Time Magazine

As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth month with no end in sight, a number of observers are beginning to ask, “Will the West grow tired of supporting Ukraine?” Some commentators have opined that “time is on Putin’s side,” and that the fierce response of NATO and other global democracies will gradually wane in the face of economic challenges stemming from inflation, Russia’s choking off of Ukrainian agrarian and hydrocarbon products from the global economy, internal political divisions (especially in the U.S.), and issue fatigue as the relentless 24/7 news cycle moves on.

I’m old enough to remember the U.S. experience in Vietnam, and Putin’s situation is increasingly reminiscent of that long, painful misadventure. His hand of cards, weak at the start of the conflict, is getting weaker by the day. Time is more on the side of Ukraine and the west than on Putin, and as the year wears on this will become more apparent.

Let’s start with the military facts on the ground. Putin’s original goal was to conquer all of Ukraine in one sweeping thrust, decapitating the Zelensky government and installing a puppet regime in Kyiv. That “Plan A” has failed, a result of over confidence, bad intelligence, worse generalship, execrable logistics, and terrible on-the-ground leadership. His “Plan B,” is a retreat to traditional Soviet/Russian tactics: grinding out small stretches of territory and terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population with a deliberate campaign of war crimes.

But like the U.S. in Vietnam, the majority of the population in Ukraine is deeply opposed to the outside aggressor. Instead of being greeted with promised bottles of vodka when they invaded, Russian soldiers were greeted with Molotov cocktails. The revelations about war crimes will only stiffen the resistance and will of the Ukrainians, and time will only strengthen their resolve.

Thus Putin’s chances of truly upending the situation on the ground and gaining a significant additional amount of territory appear small. In essence, he started with control of 15% of Ukraine before the invasion, set of goal of gaining nearly 100%, and may end up at best at with 20-25%. That’s a failing grade on any test.

Also similar to the U.S. experience in Vietnam, Putin faces a determined foe with access to outside sanctuaries and bases. The U.S. never successfully cut off the flow of weapons to the Vietcong, and the Russians will likewise be unable to stop significant assistance headed to the Ukrainians. Indeed, the Ukrainians enjoy vastly greater weapons flows across their borders, superb intelligence and cyber support, and far more significant financial resources than the Vietcong ever did.

Casualties are also mounting rapidly, both to Russian soldiers and to their equipment. Reliable estimates indicate Russian killed in action heading toward 20,000—a staggering number almost triple what the US lost in 20 years of the forever wars. The sinking of the Black Sea flagship Moskva was a dagger in the heart of the Russian navy. Over a thousand Russian tanks have been destroyed. This level of loss is unsustainable without Putin putting Russia on a full war footing, something over time that will impact his hold at home, regardless of his media control. LBJ would understand the painful choices ahead for Putin.


In some ways, Putin’s situation is worse than the U.S. in Vietnam. Putin’s democratic opponents—the U.S., most of Europe, all of NATO, Japan, Australia and others—represent nearly 60% of the world’s GDP. Russia’s economy is only around 10%, and they are thus seriously outgunned in the economic sphere. China is showing little appetite to provide Russia a lifeline, and if the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions of those doing business with Russia, the economic situation will only become more dire over time for Putin.

Fortunately for Kyiv, the cost of support to the Ukrainians—set against the huge size of Western economies—is quite small. Compared to the billions per day pumped into Afghanistan and Iraq at the peak of operations, the cost of Ukraine at current standards of support, is modest.

Finally, strategic communications are working against Putin. President Zelensky has proven a master communicator, easily outstripping the ham-handed and implausible Russian narrative of toppling the “Nazi regime” in Kyiv. Over time, Zelensky’s skills in promoting the cause of his nation will strengthen his case.

Putin’s most likely course of action will be to secure as much territory as he possibly can before the “burn rate” in terms of Russians killed in action, destroyed equipment, crushing sanctions, and international opprobrium really kicks in. As an exit strategy, he is probably hoping the west will simply pressure the Ukrainian people into accepting an armistice that gives Russia de jure control over 20% of their nation.

That appears unlikely at this point, given all the war crimes and the Ukrainian’s spirited resistance. Both of those factors will harden in the months to come. Putin holds a bad hand of cards, and like the U.S. in Vietnam, is headed for a significant defeat. Time is not on his side.

 

[BY JAMES STAVRIDIS


Admiral Stavridis (Ret.), a TIME Contributing Editor, was the 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO and is Vice Chair, Global Affairs at The Carlyle Group and Chair of the Board of the Rockefeller Foundation. He is the co-author of 2034: A Novel of the Next World War. His new nonfiction book is To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision ]

(Source)

 

Vietnam plans 2/3 cut in coal power

 From VNExpress

Vietnam will reduce coal-fired power supply by two-thirds between 2025 and 2045 and increase renewable power supply to account for more than half of the total.

All localities have expressed agreement with the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s latest version - Power Development Plan 8 – which was announced earlier this month. The ministry is required to complete its final draft of the plan and submit it to the government by the end of this month, Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh has said.

The plan includes targets to bring down the ratio of coal-fired power supply from 29.3 percent in 2025 to 9.6 percent in 2045, when the country is set to have a total supply of 401,556 megawatts from all sources.

This means coal-fired projects under construction will still be completed, but no new plant will be approved.

Hydropower will also see its ratio reduced from 27.2 percent in 2025 to 9 percent in 2045.

Renewable energy, comprising mostly of wind and solar power, will see its ratio increase from 23.7 percent in 2025 to 59.5 percent by 2045.

Offshore projects are set to account for zero percent of supply by 2025 but will rise to 17 percent by 2045.

Solar power farms will see its ratio more than double from 8.9 percent to 19.4 percent.

The industry ministry also eyes a gradual transition from liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects to hydrogen power over 20 years. By the 10th year of their operation, the government wants LNG plants to have 20 percent of their capacity coming from hydrogen power.

The latest development plan aims to maximize the reduction of coal-fired power sources in order to meet the country’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the industry ministry told the government in its report.

Carbon emissions are set to hit 175 million tonnes by 2045 and fall to 42 million tonnes by 2050.

The Pine-green wedge represents coal, biomass & ammonia 

Vietnam builds solar farm in 3 months

 From PV Magazine

Vietnamese construction company Trungnam Group has announced the inauguration of what is thought to be the nation's biggest solar project – the 450 MW Trung Nam Thuan Nam Solar Plant, in the southeastern province of Ninh Thuan.

The company on Monday announced completion of the project, including associated electricity grid improvements, and said the solar plant had been completed within 102 days of finance being agreed in April.

Trungnam stated the solar project, in the Phuoc Minh commune of Ninh Thuan's Thuan Nam district, would generate 1.2 GWh of solar electricity in its first year of operation and “more than” 1 GWh annually thereafter.

The company said some 8,000 laborers and engineers carried out land clearance of the site in just 45 days and said it had joined with public bodies the Vietnamese Fatherland Front, the Thuan Nam communal people's committee, and the provincial association of poor patients to donate 102 houses worth a total VND5.1 billion ($220,000) to poor households during the build phase.

Noting that the government wanted Ninh Thuan province to become a “national renewable energy center,” Trungnam said the 500 kV transformer station and 220/500 kV power line installed as part of the project would enhance the grid in the province and the wider south central coast region.

[Read more here]

The advocates of nuclear power as a solution to climate change face three problems:

1. Full-sized 1000 MW power stations seem to take a decade or more to build.  We don't have the time to wait for a roll-out of nuclear power when we can build a solar farm in 3 months.  
2. Nuclear power costs five times as much as solar.  Even adding the cost of "firming" with batteries or pumped hydro,  solar is still cheaper than nuclear.  SMRs might be cheaper.
3. There remains the issue of nuclear waste and the fact that accidents, though rare, are prodigiously expensive.

5 milestones in green energy

 From the World Economic Forum

1. 2020 was a record year for renewables

Globally, 260 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity were added in 2020, exceeding expansion in 2019 by close to 50% – and breaking all previous records, IRENA says.

More than 80% of all new electricity capacity added last year was renewable, with solar and wind accounting for 91% of new renewables, according to the agency’s Renewable Capacity Statistics 2021. Total fossil fuel additions fell from 64GW to 60GW over the same period.

“These numbers tell a remarkable story of resilience and hope,” IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said.

Emissions won't peak until the increase in non-renewables is zero, which still seems to be a couple of years away if you extend the trend of the grey bars, and in any event depends heavily on China sorting out its coal muddle.

2. Britain had its greenest day on record

Easter Monday, 5 April, broke a renewable energy record for Great Britain.

The nation’s electricity grid reached the greenest it’s ever been, with zero-carbon power sources including wind, solar and nuclear making up 80% of the energy mix.

At the same time, the carbon intensity of electricity – the measure of CO2 emissions per unit of electricity consumed – dropped to 39gCO2, the lowest figure in history.

3. IEA crowns solar ‘the new king of electricity supply’

Solar power will be the new king of electricity supply and looks set for massive expansion, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Its World Energy Outlook 2020 report predicts renewables will set new records each year after 2022, thanks to “widely available resources, declining costs and policy support in over 130 countries.”

“For projects with low cost financing that tap high quality resources, solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in history,” the IEA says.

This includes being more cost-effective than coal and gas in many countries today, including in the largest markets – the United States, European Union, China and India.

4. Adelaide’s operations run on 100% renewable electricity

Swimming pools, car parks, depots and community buildings in the Southern Australia capital of Adelaide are now powered entirely by renewable energy.

The city is the first council in South Australia to use 100% renewable electricity across its operations, including the historic Adelaide Town Hall, which was built in 1866.

The switch will reduce emissions by more than 11,000 tonnes a year – the equivalent of taking 3,500 cars off the road.

5. Viet Nam increases solar capacity by 25 times in just one year

Government-backed incentives to install rooftop solar systems helped Viet Nam soar to new solar energy highs in 2020.

By the end of December, 9.3GW of solar capacity had been added – equivalent to six coal power plants – and a 25-fold increase in installed capacity compared to a year earlier.

There are now more than 101,000 rooftop solar systems on homes, offices and factories across the country, according to Vietnam Electricity, the state utility.

Viet Nam has previously been heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation.

Vietnam's solar up 400 times

Source: PV Magazine, Australia

In a year, Vietnam's installed utility-scale solar capacity has gone from 10 MW to over 4 GW (4,000 MW), basically from nothing to 8% of capacity, though it will make up a smaller proportion of output because of solar's lower capacity factor.  This expansion is to take advantage of a relatively high FIT (feed-in tariff) of $93.50/MWh, guaranteed for 20 years, which ended for new projects at the end of June.  This extremely rapid expansion suggests that the FIT was set too high.  However, this has moved Vietnam fast down the solar learning curve, which will make all future solar cheaper and easier to install.  No doubt the next FIT set will be a lot lower, reflecting the government's experience of this FIT, plus the ongoing cost declines in solar.  As I discuss here, Vietnam also has excellent wind resources.

There has also been a huge expansion in Australia's utility-scale PV capacity, only this time without the benefit of a generous FIT—although not nearly as fast as Vietnam's, installed utility scale PV capacity has still risen 5 fold.  Whereas in Vietnam, the rapid expansion has been due to a generous FIT, and will fall back short term, in Australia utility-scale PV is expanding because its electricity is cheaper than the average wholesale price for grid electricity.  And that isn't going to change, though future solar farms will increasingly incorporate 4 hours of storage, which will raise costs by US$13/MWh, based on US experience.  Combined, solar plus storage will have a total cost way below the wholesale electricity price and the cost of new coal power stations.  So we will likely surpass Vietnam's total utility-scale solar installed capacity over the next year.

[Read more here]

The last redoubt of coal

Europe's been dumping coal.  And the US has.  India is building less new coal generation capacity than it's shuttering.  Even in China, once the great hope of coal miners, only  5 MW of new coal generation was given permits in 2018.  Japan is. Even Pakistan is turning away from coal. But there are still new coal power stations being planned and constructed in SE Asia—Vietnam and Indonesia being among the worst offenders. 

Some good news.

First, OCBC (Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, and no, it's not a Chinese State-owned bank), SE Asia's second largest lender, has said it will stop all new lending for coal power stations.

From Bloomberg:

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. said two Vietnamese coal-fired power plants will be the last it finances as it increases funding for renewable projects.

“We won’t do any new coal-fired power generation plants in any countries, except for the power projects that we are already in, or we have committed to,” Chief Executive Officer Samuel Tsien said in an interview at its Singapore headquarters Monday. “We hope that by doing this, we are encouraging the governments to do facilitating, arrangements for the countries to move from coal to renewable.”

At least 100 major lenders have put restrictions in the past five years on mines that produce coal and power plants that burn it, according to a February report from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. Their decisions reflect the rising recognition of coal’s role in climate change, and the potential for the fuel and facilities that rely on it to become obsolete before investments in them are paid off.

OCBC can’t backtrack from its earlier commitment to two projects in Vietnam, said Tsien, who declined to identify the developments. OCBC was among lenders for the 1.2 gigawatt Nghi Son 2 power station in Vietnam, the Straits Times reported in April last year. The lender also co-funds the Van Phong 1 project, according to Market Forces, a climate advocacy group.

The bank, which decided on the financing strategy this quarter, hasn’t engaged in discussions on coal-fired power plants over the last two years, according to Tsien.

Meanwhile, OCBC is stepping up efforts to finance renewable energy projects, an area the bank sees as a profitable business, Tsien said. It’s currently funding more than 20 solar farms in Malaysia, as well as wind projects in Australia and Taiwan.

Falling costs for renewable energy mean that building new solar plants may become cheaper than continuing to operate existing coal projects by 2027 in Vietnam, 2028 in Indonesia and 2029 in the Philippines, according to an October study by Carbon Tracker, a London-based non-profit think tank funded by several groups and charities, including Bloomberg Philanthropies. Renewable generation capacity will rise to about 100 gigawatts in Southeast Asia in 20 years from 8 gigawatts currently, consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd said in October.

Note this:

Falling costs for renewable energy mean that building new solar plants may become cheaper than continuing to operate existing coal projects by 2027 in Vietnam, 2028 in Indonesia and 2029 in the Philippines

This means that any coal power station built now (remember, they take 5 to 7 years to construct) will be immediately uneconomic even before they start operation.   And  existing coal power stations, which are built to last at least 30 years, will also be uneconomic.  That's  before depreciation and loan repayments.

Second, Vietnam has acknowledged that it has superb wind resources.

The sea from Quy Nhon to Ho Chi Minh City is considered one of the areas with the greatest potential for offshore wind power production in the world, with average wind speeds of 7-11 metres per second, experts have said.

The assessment was provided at a roundtable discussion on the development of offshore wind power in Vietnam with Dutch experience, held by the Dutch Embassy in Vietnam in collaboration with the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) in Hanoi on April 9.

Speaking at the event, Do Duc Quan, Deputy Head of the MoIT’s Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority, said that the demand for energy in Vietnam, especially electricity during 2020-2030, would be huge, as energy demand is increasing, while energy supply is and will be facing challenges, amidst traditional energy sources such as hydropower, coal, oil and gas that are gradually depleted and difficult to develop.

In such context, considering the exploitation of renewable energy sources, the Vietnamese government aims to produce 10.7% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. It targets that the total wind power capacity will reach about 1,000 MW by 2020 and 6,200 MW by 2030.

Currently, Vietnam’s total installed wind power capacity is about 190MW, with four wind farms onshore and near shore with a capacity of 6 MW to 100 MW each, while an additional of 263 MW of wind power is under construction and 412 MW is in the process of appraisal approval. Approximately 4,236 MW have been approved, raising the total registered wind power capacity to 10,729 MW.

With great advantages in wind power, especially the sea area from Quy Nhon city, in Binh Dinh province, to HCM City, offshore wind energy in Vietnam has yet been fully exploited. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is one of the top five countries in the world in research and development of offshore energy. The Dutch experience would be useful to Vietnam in selecting the optimal solution for the development of offshore wind power in the most appropriate way, Quan emphasised.

[Read more here]

Offshore wind is for obvious reasons more expensive than onshore wind.  But it compensates for this by being more regular and stronger.

Source: WindMinds

Vietnam also has reasonable solar resources.  According to the trusty NREL/PVWatts calculator, 5 kW of panels even in the north of the country (Hanoi) will produce 5679 kWh/year.  Further south, in Ho Chi Minh City, that same configuration would produce 7223 kWh/year.  For comparison, in Columbus, Ohio it would produce 6498 kWh/year, about the same as where I live, in Victoria.

Source: ResearchGate

SE Asia is made up of several fast-growing economies.  It's important that their high growth in electricity demand isn't filled by coal.  It looks as if renewables will help prevent that.  There is no question that coal is on its way out.  But avoiding 2 degrees C of warming requires that we stop building new coal power stations now, and then start closing them down as fast as we can.