Volewica: Trump

Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Monday, September 21, 2026

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Stunning BYD EV price cut

BYD ATTO 1

From The Driven

BYD has cut the price of its cheapest electric car to just $19,990 driveaway [US$14,190, but the Australian price includes a 10% GST (sales tax), taking the price down to an effective US$12,775], pushing the cost of a new EV in Australia below the $20,000 mark for the first time.
The special offer applies to the entry-level BYD Atto 1 Essential and is available nationwide, according to BYD Australia.
The Atto 1 was already comfortably Australia’s cheapest new electric car, launching at $23,990 before on-road costs late last year. The new offer cuts $4,000 from that headline price while also including on-road costs.
It puts the compact electric hatchback into a price bracket occupied by some of Australia’s cheapest new petrol cars, and represents another significant step down in the cost of entry to a new battery-electric vehicle.
Electric cars have already taken a huge chunk out of the Australian car market this year, posting a record 24.9 per cent share in August, and outselling petrol cars, and diesel, for the first time.
The Atto 1 Essential uses a 30 kWh BYD Blade Battery and offers up to 220 km of WLTP range. Its front-mounted electric motor produces 65 kW and the car can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in 11.1 seconds.
It also comes standard with 11 kW AC charging and DC fast charging at up to 65 kW, along with a 10.1-inch infotainment screen, wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, vehicle-to-load (V2L) capability and six airbags.
BYD Australia chief operating officer Stephen Collins said the price cut was aimed at making electric vehicles accessible to more Australian households as cost-of-living pressures continue.
“At a time when Australian families are carefully considering every household expense, we’re committed to making vehicle ownership more attainable,” Collins said.
“The BYD ATTO 1 at $19,990 driveaway demonstrates our commitment to delivering outstanding value without compromising on technology, safety or quality.”
The deal further intensifies competition at the affordable end of Australia’s rapidly expanding EV market. When the Atto 1 arrived, its $23,990 starting price opened a sizeable gap to other new EVs and made it cheaper than many popular entry-level petrol cars.
Competition has since increased, including the arrival of the Geely EX2, which starts from $26,490 before on-road costs and offers 252 km of WLTP range in entry-level Complete form.
The Atto 1 is also offered in a more powerful Premium variant, which uses a larger 43 kWh battery for up to 310 km of WLTP range and a 115 kW motor.
BYD has been rapidly expanding both its model range and physical presence in Australia. The company says it has introduced eight new models or major variants since October last year, with that number expected to reach 10 by this October.
Upcoming additions include a plug-in hybrid version of the Atto 2 small SUV and the M9, BYD’s first premium people mover for the Australian market.
BYD says it has also been opening an average of one new sales and service centre a week over the past 12 months, and expects to have more than 150 dealerships across Australia by the end of 2026.
BYD has not indicated in its announcement how long the $19,990 driveaway Atto 1 Essential offer will remain available.

This is extraordinary. To date, the cheapest new car in Australia has been the petrol-driven MG MG3, at $19,990. And that isn't the drive-away price — you still have to add $1000 to $2000 to that. The electricity to fill the battery would cost you $9 (30 cents/kWh) on a typical daytime home charge rate, or, at midday, thanks to a new government program, or if you have solar panels, it would be free. Fast chargers typically cost 65 cents/kWh, so to recharge from empty to full using a fast charger, would cost you $19.50. However, most people charge at home, and many use off-peak charging at 20 cents/kWh, if they're not using their own solar panels or the low or zero rate over midday.

The equivalent range in the MG3 would cost roughly $30 of petrol. (That is with current prices; without the Iran war it would be cheaper.)

Problem: the range is short. If you wanted to drive from, say, Melbourne to Sydney, you would have to stop 3 times to recharge. With the petrol MG, you might not have to refuel at all, since the MG3's range is 750 km. In practice, though, one only makes long journeys occasionally. The average daily commute is 16 km, and 73% commute 20 km or less.

To sum up: you can now buy an EV which is cheaper up front than the cheapest equivalent petrol car, and will cost you much less to run.

Outside the US and Europe, Chinese-made EVs are going to grab market share from ICEVs, not because people care about climate change, or because of pollution, but because EVs are cheaper. And the switch to EVs, here in Australia, and globally, has accelerated because of Trump's Iran war. What a glorious irony.

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Commodity prices point towards higher inflation

A surge in commodity prices usually precedes (and leads to) a surge in consumer price inflation.

You could argue that the rise in overall commodity prices is mostly oil. But other commodity prices are also going up (see lower chart), although that is partly because methane (natural gas) is used to make fertilisers.

Note logarithmic scale

My "brekkie" index — an equally weighted index of corn (maize), wheat, oats, cocoa, coffee, sugar and orange juice — has been surging since Trump's Iran War.

N.B. Log scale

If inflation remains stubbornly high because of higher oil prices and surging general commodity prices, Central Banks will, albeit reluctantly, raise interest rates and tighten credit. And that will pop the private credit and the AI bubble, driving the economy into deep recession.

Trump's legacy will long outlive him, just not in the way he thinks.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Treasuries point to a US bond crisis

US bond yields are soaring.

Bond yields in any country rise for one or more of the following factors:

Inflation has risen and/or is expected to rise.
Growth is picking up.
The government deficit is ballooning
Default risks are rising.

In the US, inflation is expected by the markets to remain high. This is because of the soaring oil price as a result of the Iran war, and also because the new Governor of the Fed Kevin Warsh is Trump's creature, and is suspected of being soft on inflation. It's also because of Trump's penchant for tariffs.

Growth appears to be picking up, for now, which makes it more likely the Fed Funds rate will be raised rather than lowered. This will push up long bond yields, unless the markets decide it will increase the risk of recession.

The federal deficit is exploding, thanks to Trump's tax cuts as well as the Iran war. Tariffs, on again then off again then back on again, have not plugged the gap. The big cuts DOGE was supposed to bring have turned out to be mouse-sized. The Trump administration is unlikely to take any action to reduce the deficit, and the Iran war is not going away.

Default risks are rising. The deficit has doubled from $20 trillion in 2017, to $40 trillion. Paying the interest charges is now the largest single item in the Federal budget. This makes it harder to repay the debt, because as interest rates rise, the debt and interest burdens increase. And Trump has repeatedly gone bankrupt in the past, and may think that a US debt default would be as painless as his property companies going to the wall. Then there was some half-wit in the administration (whose name escapes me) who proposed recalling the debt and issuing new paper for half the value of the old. Or maybe at half the yield. Either way, that is, of course, a default.

A further unique factor to this crisis is that foreign central Banks of countries which were once allies of the United States — Canada, Europe, Japan — are big holders of Treasuries, as is China, and could decide to sell for political reasons. They probably won't because they know the risks better than I do, but I would not be at all surprised if they were quietly allowing their Treasury holdings to run off and replacing them with gold, bought by intermediaries, and not held in the vaults of the New York Fed. Trust in the US has gone, and that makes everything much harder to navigate, and much riskier.

Bond yields are at 20-year highs, and are still rising. This creates a doom-loop, where interest rates rise, increasing the deficit as new paper is issued, which increases the interest burden which causes interest rates to rise even further. It was this dynamic which created the Euro crisis 15 years ago.

The US bond market is central to the operation of global financial markets. A default would cause a deep global depression. One hopes that the grown-ups will act in time to prevent this catastrophe. But will they?

Monday, August 24, 2026

Gas just 9% of new capacity in the US

From Ohio Citizen Action

Small to mid-size utility-scale solar projects paired with battery storage accounted for more new generating capacity than any other technology so far this year. These projects work because they're easier to site and build than a mega gas plant. bit.ly/4g9nVsK

They're also easier to connect to the grid.

For now, we still need some gas for times when both wind and solar are low — "dunkelflaute". But, given the Trump administration's obsession with fossil fuels and abolition of Biden clean-energy subsidies, this is a surprisingly low figure.