Batteries are taking over Australia's evening peak

 From Gavin Mooney

Just one year ago, peaking gas was still doing much of the heavy lifting during Australia's evening peak. Today, that is no longer the case.

The chart below compares average daily dispatch profiles across Australia's main grid (the NEM) in April 2025 and April 2026.

The change in just one year is remarkable.

While peaking gas generation has fallen sharply, battery discharge has surged and is now dominating the evening peak.

This isn't just about more batteries being installed. It's also about batteries performing one of the grid's most valuable jobs: supplying electricity during the high-demand evening period when solar output falls away.

A few things stand out:

✅ Battery discharge in Q1 2026 was around 3x higher than a year earlier
✅ Batteries now set wholesale electricity prices roughly one-third of the time
✅ Wholesale electricity prices were 12% lower in Q1 - largely due to the influx of batteries

Perhaps most strikingly, battery discharge across the NEM has now overtaken peaking gas generation – and it appears on track to overtake mid-merit gas in the next year as well.

This shift is being primarily driven by economics.

Battery costs have fallen dramatically, projects have become larger and the growing spread between low daytime prices and higher evening prices increasingly favours battery storage.

For decades, peaking gas plants were the default solution for the evening peak.

Increasingly, that role is being performed by batteries instead.

Australia now has more battery storage capacity per capita than any other country in the world - more than double the second-ranked country.

Even in absolute terms, only China and the US have more installed battery capacity. That's pretty remarkable for a country of just 27 million people.

The Oz government has a program to subsidise home batteries, and this has helped drive the huge surge in battery installations.  It's also driving down wholesale electricity prices, which of course was the intent.  Australia achieved widespread penetration of household solar by generous subsidies (now mostly wound down) and the same looks set to happen in storage.  Wind + solar + batteries is producing ever cheaper electricity, and this will drive fossil fuels out of the grid.  

PV panel prices just keep on sliding

This shows the costs of photovoltaic (solar) panels, in constant dollars, from Our World in Data.  In 2024, PV panels cost just 0.2 per cent of what they cost in 1975, and 70% of what they cost in 2020, a compound annual rate of decline of 12%, despite the bounce during and after Covid.  This trend is likely to continue.

Since battery costs are falling even faster than panel costs, solar is getting closer and closer to being able to provide baseload power, as increased storage capacity becomes affordable.   In 2020, solar provided 3.2% of the world's electricity, in 2025 it reached 8.7%, and it seems likely that by 2030, it will be 23.6%, assuming the growth rate of the last 5 years continues.  Given the impact of the Iran war on gas prices outside the US, even this jump may prove too conservative.  

This is the first oil crisis where there is an alternative:  solar plus storage, and EVs.  Repeated oil crises have shown how unwise it is to rely on oil and gas.  The great irony of Trump's war is that it will accelerate the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.  

Spain's cheap wholesale electricity

 From  Bright Spots (Jan Rosenow)

In the first four months of 2026, the average wholesale electricity price in Spain was €44 per megawatt-hour. In Italy, it was €127. In Germany, €96. In the UK, €103. Spain is now cheaper than France, well below the central-European bloc, and within striking distance of the Nordic hydro-and-nuclear heavyweights that have always topped the cheap-power league.

This is not where most observers expected Spain to be. A decade ago, Spain was a cautionary tale of stranded solar investment and one of Europe’s more expensive power markets. Today it sits near the bottom of the price table, and the gap is widening.

The story behind that ranking is, on its surface, simple. Spain increasingly pushed gas increasingly out of its electricity supply, and the price of electricity followed.

The mix has changed beyond recognition

Twenty-five years ago, a third of Spain’s electricity came from coal. Today, coal is effectively gone. Gas, which surged in the 2000s as the replacement, peaked above 30% of generation in the late 2000s and has since been pushed back to roughly 19%. Nuclear has held steady around 19%, hydro and bioenergy together around 14%, and the remaining capacity has been steadily filled by wind and solar.

Wind alone supplied 20% of Spanish generation in 2025. Solar, which barely existed at scale in the early 2010s, hit 22%. Between them, those two technologies now generate more electricity than any other single category in the system, including the nuclear fleet that was once Spain’s reliable workhorse.

2022 was the turning point

If you stack solar and wind against all fossil generation (gas plus the last embers of coal and oil), the lines crossed in 2022. That was the first year wind plus solar generated more electricity than every fossil source combined. Through the first quarter of 2026, the gap has widened further. Solar and wind delivered 44% of generation, fossil fuels 17%.

This is the structural story that many arguments about energy policy circle around. Spain did not just add renewables on top of a fossil base. It substituted. The fossil curve has been falling, year after year, while the renewable curve has been climbing.

2022 also a turning point for wholesale electricity prices in Spain: The Iberian exception capped electricity prices initially to below EU27 average prices but even after the mechanism ended Spain widened the price gap further.

Why this shows up in the price

In a wholesale electricity market, the price in any given hour is set by the most expensive plant that needs to run to meet demand. For most of Europe, for most of the last decade, that has been a gas plant. The merit-order link from gas prices to power prices is the reason European households got an electricity bill shock when Russian pipeline gas collapsed in 2022.

What has quietly happened in Spain is that gas now sets the price far less often. In 2022, gas was the marginal plant in roughly 55% of all hours. In 2024 it had fallen to 27%. By the first four months of 2026, it was just 9%.

[The article continues, and you can read the rest here]

A similar phenomenon has happened in Australia, where gas is also the most expensive generation source.  Over the last year, enough storage has been added to the grid to mean gas is used to set the price less often, and this has resulted in a significantly lower wholesale price.

What took sodium batteries so long?

 A fascinating analysis of why sodium-ion batteries are only now coming into widespread use.  Dr Ben Miles discusses the chemistries of lithium- and sodium-ion and how they developed, and why hybrid batteries with lithium-ion and sodium-ion cells might make sense. 

 Also, note this:  CATL (who developed the new sodium-ion batteries) has just received a 60 GWh order for new sodium-ion batteries, equal to 50% of its lithium-ion battery sales last year.   Remember that LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) batteries cost $55-$70/kWh, while sodium-ion are heading for $19/kWh.   And that's not the end of the likely price decline:  CATL thinks they can over time cut the cost to $10/kWh. Sodium-ion batteries also support 10,000 cycles.   In other words, even if you fully charged and discharged it every day, it would still last 27 years. 

And all this has happened in one year, going from laboratory to mass production!

Implication:  as solar prices continue to decline, gas and oil is (again) proved to be volatile and unreliable, and storage costs fall precipitously, wind, solar and storage will be so much cheaper than fossil fuels that they will rapidly replace them. Only the US won't join in this bounty of dirt-cheap energy.  The rest of the world will receive a huge boost to economic growth as electricity costs plunge. 

Tallest, mightiest and widest

Cutting the cost of wind power by 30%

 

From RenewEconomy

The Spanish wind turbine technology company Nabrawind has confirmed that it will supply 17 of its giant, self-lifting wind turbine towers for Fortescue’s first wind project, describing them as “the tallest, the mightiest, the widest” in the world.

Nabrawind, now fully owned by Fortescue following a deal announced last year, has been testing the first of its installations for Fortescue’s 133 megawatt (MW) Nullagine wind farm in the Pilbara with Chinese turbine supplier Envision.

“This project brings together, for the first time in an onshore wind farm, the highest hub height (188 metres), the highest power rating (7.8 megawatts), and the largest rotor (182 metres) ever deployed in combination,” Nabrawind said in a LinkedIn post this week.

Nabrawind, which was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Pamplona, Spain, was fully acquired by Fortescue last year, following at least two investments into the company in 2023 and 2024.

The main interest in Nabrawind technology is its Self-Erecting System (SES) that negates the need for large-size cranes in favour of a self-erecting, three-column framed structure that can be installed in segments under an integrated wind turbine generator consisting of tower, nacelle, and rotor.

According to Nabrawind, the full cost of its towers, including foundation, logistics, and installation, is between 15 to 30 per cent less than traditional towers. Similarly, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 40 per cent, compared to traditional towers, as is the assembly platform’s emissions.

Additionally, despite boasting a hub height of 188 metres, the Nabralift towers maintain a maximum tubular diameter of around 4.6 metres, making them easier to transport by adhering to standard road infrastructure, thus helping to reduce logistical complexity in remote locations.

Nabrawind says the self-erecting allows super-tall towers to be installed with standard cranes, and it means that the turbine can be installed at wind speeds of up to 15 m/s [33.5 mph], significantly reducing delays caused by strong winds.

The extra height is useful to access the best possible conditions in low-wind areas (such as Pilbara).

The Nullagine project is likely to be the first stage of a potential 2 gigawatt facility, mostly on the adjoining Bonney Downs lease, and will form a major part of the five gigawatts of wind, solar and battery capacity that Fortescue needs to reach its target of “real zero” in the Pilbara by 2030.

That target means burning no fossil fuels for terrestrial activities by the end of the decade, and the full electrification of transport and mining equipment. It has now installed 12 fully electric excavators, has taken delivery of its first two electric locomotives and is trialling giant 274 tonne electric haul trucks.

Meanwhile, Envision has announced that it has successfully grid-connected the first AI wind turbine prototype for the Nullagine project, it’s its first major project in Australia.

“The achievement marks a major milestone in Envision’s presence in the Australian renewable energy market and underscores the potential of physical AI system to enable large-scale industrial decarbonization across the country,” it said in a statement.

We are winning, despite Trump & big oil

 From Claes de Vreese

And now something positive:

Solar and wind energy production in the EU surpasses fossil energy for the first time.

#TippingPoint

Source: https://dr.dk

 

Despite big oil, despite Trump, despite the Right's betrayal of ordinary people: we are doing it. Too slowly, certainly, but the trend is in the right direction, on renewables, on EVs, and on heat pumps.

Victory is possible.

Australia reaches 50% renewables

 

In Q4 2025, the percentage of renewables in Australia's main electricity market, the NEM, reached 50%, or to be precise, 49.9%.  This is the best quarter of the year for renewables' share because wind and sun are strong, but since it is spring, demand for electricity for air conditioning is low.   The average percentage of electricity demand provided by renewables for the whole year was just 42.9%, up from 5.8% in 2008.  The percentage of renewables in the NEM is rising by ~3.5% per annum, which means that we're still 16 years before it provides 100% of demand throughout the year.

All the same, it's a landmark.  In 2008, almost all the renewables provided came from hydro, and the growth of wind power was slow, because in those early days, it was more expensive than coal, especially existing coal power stations.  Governments, both state and national, provided high feed-in tariffs for rooftop solar, which in Q4 2025 provided an astonishing 17.6% of total electricity demand, even though subsidies for rooftop solar have now been withdrawn.  The rapid growth in rooftop solar led to everybody in the system becoming familiar with it, with the result that soft costs (permitting, etc.) are low.  A very successful policy.  Rooftop solar in Australia is much cheaper than in the USA because of this factor.  Obviously, the panels cost the same, it's the soft costs which are so high.

The Right has opposed renewables all the way, and even now that renewables are cheaper than even existing coal power stations, still is hostile.  For example, Queensland (run by a right-wing party) has banned new wind and solar farms, despite their cost advantage.  And at national level, the so-called Liberal Party and the Murdoch press continue to say that high electricity costs are because of renewables--they're not, they're because of gas.  And they continue to spruik nuclear, which in Australia is entirely unnecessary, and also insanely expensive, more expensive than new coal.

It seemed such a long way to go, back in 2008, and progress was so slow.  And yet, we are half-way there!  I hope that as solar, wind and batteries continue to drop in price, the transformation of Australia's electricity grid will accelerate, but here in Australia, as elsewhere, vested interests are doing their damnedest to stop it.  But the public knows that installing solar will save them money, and rooftop solar installations continue.  Outside Queensland, Labor-controlled states have fairly aggressive renewables targets, driving continued growth in wind and utility-scale solar.  

Despite the opposition, we'll get to 100%, sooner than we got to 50%.

[If you want to play around with the data, you can do so here]

CATL reveals sodium-ion battery with 3.6 million mile lifespan

•  CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion costs are around $19/kWh at the cell level. LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells are currently $55-$60/kWh (when bought at massive scale), so roughly 65% cheaper at the moment.  CATL thinks these sodium-ion cells could fall further in cost, possibly down to $10/kWh in 2 or 3 years.
• They are roughly half the cost of the LFP packs at pack level
• The Naxtra battery is capable of around 3.6 million miles (6 million kilometres) of driving before the capacity drops to 85%, 3 to 6 times as long as what we get from the very best LFP batteries today.
• Energy density.  Sodium-ion historically has struggled here. A couple of years ago, sodium-ion packs had an energy density of 120-140 Wh/kg.  The Naxtra pack now has an energy density of 175 Wh/kg, which means the Naxtra has now overtaken BYD's current Blade battery's energy density of 160 to 165.
• It performs much better in winter and summer, in a range between -40C to +70C, and can be charged at full speed even at -20C.
• Doesn't catch alight if pierced or in an accident.
• The Naxtra materials are abundant, cheap and not strategic: sodium (salt), aluminium, carbon.
• Sodium cells can be built on current LFP assembly lines.

As I pointed out in previous pieces on CATL's sodium-ion battery, the combination of low price and very long life make battery storage very, very cheap.  

Solar, with an LCOE* at $42.60 /MWh (Our World in Data figures) is already the second-cheapest source of electricity globally, and the cheapest in the sunbelt, and sodium-ion batteries will allow 12 hours of storage at under $1/MWh.  That doesn't include the cost of charging the batteries, but right now, wherever solar is plentiful, midday output of solar is often curtailed or sold at zero cost, because of excess supply.   The cost of solar quoted above includes income losses from curtailment/zero wholesale prices, so solar will get cheaper as 12 hour storage becomes the norm, and curtailment is no longer necessary. 

What does nuclear cost, i.e., what is nuclear's LCOE?  $155/MWh, according to Our World in Data.  That's the average global price; it's much more expensive in Europe and the USA.  And coal?  Again, the average global LCOE according to OWID,  is $110/MWh.  So, you can have solar, for $40/MWh, which is falling by 10%-plus every year, or coal, which is three times as expensive and not getting any cheaper, or nuclear which is four times as expensive, and getting more expensive (except SMRs**.  Maybe.)  

Wind will also have a rôle in our future grids, because it is seasonally complementary to solar, and is 20% cheaper than solar in high latitudes.  

Sorry, guys, fossil fuels don't stand a chance, except perhaps, in high latitudes.   And even there, HVDC*** power lines can import electricity from solar farms in low latitudes, more cheaply than nuclear or coal.

*Levelised cost of electricity.

**Small modular reactors

***High voltage direct current

The coming cheap electricity boom

 A comment by Jilles van Gurp, on Electrek's Solar and wind are covering all new power demand in 2025. 

Basically the penny that hasn't dropped yet with a lot of people is that there are going to be two types of countries. 1) the type of country that covers all their power needs with self-generated, cheap, clean power 2) the type of country that are hopelessly dependent for most of their power needs on both expensive fossil fuel imports and domestic fossil fuel companies taking huge chunks of their GDP out of the economy.

One of those will do really well in competing with the other. That's China vs. the US right now. Everything the US does, China can do cheaper, faster, and better. That really matters when you are selling to the rest of the world like China is and the US seems to be struggling to do. It really is that simple. If the US wants to have an export market in the future, it needs to let go of fossil fuel. The sooner it figures that out the better it's chances.

China is on a track to go cold turkey on fossil fuel by the 2060s. Yes they are building coal plants. But those are not running at full capacity anymore. They are hitting peak coal even as they build more plants. Solar/wind are growing faster. Compound growth curves mean all that coal capacity is rapidly becoming less relevant. Just like the Chinese have been planning. If anything, that's speeding up because they are doing unexpectedly well with solar and battery.

After WWII, the world entered a period of sustained high growth, with declining inequality, low unemployment, and a belief that their children would be better off.  In retrospect, a golden age. 

It was driven by three forces:

• High taxes on the rich, which were used to boost education, science, transport and economic progress.
• Keynesian economics, which advised governments to increase spending during recessions, instead of embracing austerity, which is the current failing orthodoxy.
• Cheap energy.  The global oil price was controlled by the Texas Railroad Commission, and remained stable until the oil crisis.

These three drivers of prosperity failed with the Vietnam War; the surge in the oil price as US supply declined and OPEC flexed its muscles and instituted an oil embargo; and the rise of neo-liberalism.

Today, solar and battery costs continue to decline, battery costs precipitously.   This means that the cost of energy will once again be low, and even better than stable---it will be falling.   Countries which embrace renewables will have low and falling energy costs.  Countries which don't, will reduce their growth rate and standard of living.  As Jilles van Gurp says, it's obvious.  

As an aside, the countries which will benefit the most from cheap solar are in the sunbelt, between latitudes 30 North and South, and they're mostly developing countries, which have hitherto been held back by poor access to electricity.  That is all changing.  Since they are so far inside their production possibility frontier, these poorer countries embracing renewables could achieve very high growth rates.  China sees this.  The US, blinded by racism and arrogance, calls them "shithole" countries, and completely missed the point.

(Source)

India's renewable electricity reaches new record

 From Reuters

Clean electricity production in India has surged by 20% to new highs so far this year, giving utilities a rare chance to cut fossil fuel-fired generation and reduce reliance on energy imports for power production.

India's clean electricity sources are also on track to provide a third of its utility electricity for the first time over the next month or so, thanks to record combined output from renewables, hydro and nuclear assets, data from Ember shows.

The steep build in home-grown clean electricity comes just as India faces unprecedented scrutiny over its energy import practices, particularly its heavy reliance on sanctioned Russian oil that has triggered stiff new tariffs from the United States.

Solar output rising exponentially

India also faces pressure to boost imports of U.S. LNG as a means to reduce its trade deficit with the United States, but has steadily reduced its reliance on gas for power as clean energy output has increased.

Continued growth in clean generation - alongside rising homemade production of clean energy tech such as solar panels and battery systems - may help India limit its reliance on foreign-sourced fossil fuels while continuing to expand its overall energy generation.

Over the first half of 2025, India's utilities generated a record 236 terawatt hours (TWh) of clean electricity, data from Ember shows.

That total is 20% more than during the same months in 2024, and allowed utilities to curb generation from fossil fuels by 4% from the year before to around 691 TWh.

A 29% jump in wind generation (to 47.2 TWh) and a 25% rise in solar generation (to 85 TWh) were the main drivers of the advance in clean electricity supplies.

The collective upswing in multiple clean generation sources is leading to clean power grabbing a record share of India's generation mix, which will likely exceed 30% for the months of July, August and September.

 

Over the first half of 2025, total clean generation from all sources was around 24% more than average generation levels from India's clean generation assets during the same months from 2022 to 2024.

If wind and hydro production rise as expected during July, August and September, total clean electricity production in India will smash previous records this year and may set the stage for even steeper cuts to fossil fuel generation going forward.

Given the fast pace of electricity demand growth in India, utilities are likely to continue adding coal-fired generation capacity to the generation system to ensure that overall electricity supplies keep up with consumption.

But with solar and wind capacity expected to continue growing at a faster pace, the share of fossil fuels within India's overall generation mix may be close to peaking, which would mark a major milestone for India's fast-growing energy system.

An established peak in the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation could then trigger a potential decline in fossil fuel imports and use, and reduce the pressure on India to succumb to international pressure on oil and gas import trends.

In this piece, Emissions have peaked, I argued that China's emissions have most probably peaked, because of the extraordinarily rapid roll-out of solar, and the S-curve rise in EVs as a percentage of total car sales.

Europe's emissions peaked in 1990.  They are back at 1965 levels.   The USA's emissions peaked in 2007, and its emissions have fallen to 1987 levels. The UK's emissions peaked in 1973, and are back at 1880 levels.  Japan's emissions peaked in 2013.  

If China's emissions have peaked, then the big remaining emitter where emissions must peak, is India.  And it looks as if India's emissions might be close to peaking, too.  Emissions from fossil fuel electricity generation fell 4% in the first half of this year.   Yet India is booming---the average annual GDP growth rate over the last 5 years was 7%.  In other words, despite high growth, the share of renewables still rose and fossil fuel emissions still fell.  

Global emissions have almost certainly peaked.   And this is at least in part due to the plunge in solar and battery prices, which have moved switching from fossil fuels to renewables from a luxury only rich countries could afford to a necessity where even poor countries are willing to do it.  Global emissions will fall slowly at first, but the decline will accelerate as solar, battery, and EV prices continue to decline.  And when emissions have fallen enough, global temperatures will stop rising.

  

Fossil fuels are losing

 From Need to Know

One Third of All Energy Used is Now Clean Energy

The chart above shows that 33 countries generate more than 50% of their electricity from solar and wind. Surprising, right?

Here’s another big surprise: 32% of total energy use worldwide comes from renewable sources.

In other words, one-third of all energy used today is being met by zero-carbon sources.*

The transition to clean energy is well underway.

There is a lot of misinformation and disinfo about energy. Clarification of some terms is necessary:

The term energy includes electricity and liquid fuels like gasoline.

Energy generation or energy production (also called primary energy) is the amount of energy generated/produced by an energy source, such as a coal power plant or solar panel.

Energy consumption (sometimes called energy demand or final energy) is the amount of energy used to perform tasks such as moving a bus.

It is important to know the difference. Here’s why:

Two cars of similar size, driving the same distance.

One is gasoline-powered, the other electric.

The electric vehicle will consume or use 75% less energy. Why is that? Burning gasoline generates a lot of energy, but 65% of that energy is lost as waste heat. Also, electric motors are inherently more efficient.

Bottom line: You can travel the same distance using 75% less energy with an EV. **

(Bonus: no air pollution and very little CO2 added to the atmosphere.)

Building new solar/wind farms is cheaper than operating existing coal plants

The costs of wind, solar, and batteries have plummeted. It is now cheaper to build and operate new wind and solar farms than to keep many existing coal plants operating.

That’s why 93% investments in all new electricity generation in 2024 went into wind and solar.

Also, 1 in 5 cars sold in 2024 was an EV or hybrid. This year it’s expected to be in 1 in 4 vehicles sold. (In China, it is 1 in 2. )

56 Countries get most of their electricity from clean energy

The chart below includes other sources of producing clean electricity, such as hydro. 56 countries now get 50% or more of their electricity from clean energy sources. (Note: electricity and “power” are often used interchangeably, although that’s technically incorrect.)

67.3% of the energy generated in the U.S. is wasted

The main thing to keep in mind in the complex world of energy is that burning fossil fuels wastes 65% of the energy they produce. (See chart from the U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory — 67.3% of All Energy Generated in the U.S. is Wasted.)

 

 

 * Note: Some of this post is drawn from energy expert Michael Liebreich’s excellent essay “The Five Horsemen and Five Superheroes”.

** Here’s Liebreich’s more detailed car comparison:

Say your VW Golf is managing 40 miles per gallon, a pretty normal figure for real-life usage. This translates to 1kWh/mile or, after accounting for losses in extracting, refining and distributing your fuel, 1.2kWh/mile. The equivalent electric VW ID3, after adjusting for grid and charging losses, uses just 0.3 kWh/mile. By switching, you have achieved a 75% reduction in Primary Energy Demand and opened up a route to eliminate 100% of emissions from driving – with no reduction in mobility.

Unlocking cheaper energy

The EU’s Green Deal aims to ensure that the European Union achieves climate neutrality by 2050, through a comprehensive transition to renewable energies. Image by Rawpixel (CC0)

From East Anglia Bylines

 

National targets for solar and wind power will see reliance on natural gas massively decline, reducing electricity price volatility across Europe, with major beneficiaries including the UK and Ireland, the Nordics, and the Netherlands.

Hitting the current national 2030 quotas for solar and wind energy could reduce the volatility of electricity markets by an average of 20% across 29 European countries, according to a new study from the University of Cambridge.

The intensity of spikes in power prices are predicted to fall in every country by the end of the decade if commitments to green energy are met, as natural gas dependency is cut.

The UK and Ireland would be the biggest beneficiaries, with 44% and 43% reductions in the severity of electricity price spikes by 2030, compared with last year. Germany could experience a 31% decline in electricity price volatility, with the Netherlands and Belgium seeing price spikes ease by 38% and 33% respectively.

The simulations conducted for the new study show that scaling up renewable energy minimises the market impact of fluctuations in natural gas price – increasing stability even when considering the reliance of renewable technologies on weather.

Some EU leaders and energy ministers have called for renewables targets on grounds of energy security as well as decarbonisation, particularly since Putin’s war on Ukraine stemmed the flow of Russian gas.

The study, published in the journal Nature Energy, calculates in detail how such aims would affect the volatility of wholesale electricity prices in energy markets across Europe.

“The volatility of energy prices is a major cause of damage to national economies,” said Laura Diaz Anadon, the University of Cambridge’s Professor of Climate Change Policy.

“Consumers are still reeling from sharp increases in electricity prices brought about by natural gas shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Anadon. “We show that hitting renewables targets reduce the likelihood of such price spikes in the future.”

Daniel Navia, a researcher with the University’s Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG), said: “Meeting renewable energy targets is not only good for carbon neutrality, but we can see it is a boost to economic resilience”

“We had probably underestimated how costly energy price shocks are to our societies, and the last crisis has been a stark reminder.”

The Cambridge researchers used the University’s high performance computing facilities to model a wide range of factors – from fluctuations in weather patterns and energy demands to fuel capacity – to map the current and future grids of all 27 EU nations plus the UK and Switzerland.

They assessed electricity markets in 2030 based on the commitments to renewables as stated in each nation’s national energy and climate plan.

“The UK in particular is projected to see major benefits to its energy market stability from renewables,” said Anadon.

“The UK has struggled with its exposure to gas prices due to a lack of energy storage and limited connections to the European grid. This has led to more hours where electricity prices are set by natural gas.”

The research also suggests that wholesale prices of electricity could fall by over a quarter on average across all countries in the study by decade’s end if they stick to current national renewables targets.

Again, populations in the UK and Ireland stand to gain significantly, with electricity prices predicted to fall by around 45% by 2030, compared with the current situation.

Several of the Nordic nations could see over 60% reductions in electricity costs by 2030, while in Germany the price is predicted to fall by 34%, with Belgium seeing a similar drop of 31%. The study suggests the Netherlands could see the price of electricity fall by 41%.

Anti-renewables critics (mostly on the Right) maintain that renewables bring higher prices.  But this is because gas is used to balance the grid, and gas prices outside the USA have gone up 5-fold since early 2020.  New wind and solar and batteries have continued to fall in price over the last 5 years, solar and batteries especially.  Electricity from peaking plants is always expensive because they only run for a short time, yet their expenses must still be covered, meaning that the cost per MWh is several times the cost of other sources of power.

This ratio of gas peaking plants to wind and solar is obviously made even worse if the gas price has quintupled.  As battery costs decline, more and more of the need for peaking plants will be assumed by "big batteries" (and also by the batteries in our EVs.)  Costs will inevitably fall, not rise.

Battery cell costs to halve again

 Hat tip to Anish Kumar Sinha

Battery pack costs are higher than cell costs, but even so, LFP (Lithium-Iron-Phosphate) battery pack costs could drop from the current $94/kWh to  $60/kWh or below.  And that's before sodium-ion batteries go into mass production.

It's really simple: the market share of EVs is heading inexorably to 100%.  

Even in countries with high import tariffs on imported EVs (US/Europe), the cost of Chinese EVs will fall so fast that domestic EV prices will have to respond, leading to rising EV sales.  Not to mention Chinese EV companies opening new EV plants in S.E. Asia, Latin America and Africa.  

With electricity generation, ultra-cheap batteries will allow 24/7 solar power in sun-belt regions of the globe (35 degrees S to 35 degrees N), and mixed solar/wind in higher latitudes.  Beyond latitude 60 degrees, some form of long-term storage will be needed, prob'ly green hydrogen/green methane/green methanol.  But all this can be done using renewables, not fossil fuels. 

This revolution cannot be stopped by big oil.  Demand for coal and oil will fall progressively.  And global emissions will fall too.

Rural school gives teachers a pay rise funded by solar

Energy efficiency measures and a solar power system at Batesville High School in Arkansas have helped local school officials increase teacher pay. Credit: Entegrity Partners / via E&E News

From Energy News Network

In Batesville, Arkansas, just 17 miles west of the state’s largest coal-fired power plant, a solar array at the local high school is having an unconventional impact: boosting teachers’ pay.

In 2017, energy efficiency company Entegrity conducted an energy audit of the Batesville School District, which currently comprises Batesville High School and five other schools that serve roughly 3,200 students.

The Little Rock, Arkansas-based company found that the district’s annual utility bills surpassed $600,000, a steep sum for a school system that for years was strapped for cash — and struggled to retain teachers as a result.

But there was some good news.

The audit also revealed that the school district could save at least $2.4 million over 20 years if it outfitted Batesville High School with more than 1,400 solar panels and updated all of the district’s facilities with new lights, heating and cooling systems, and windows.

For Michael Hester, the Batesville superintendent, that eye-popping figure was reason enough to move forward with a comprehensive energy efficiency project.

“Let’s use that money to start pumping up teachers’ salaries,” Hester said in an interview. “It’s the way we’re going to attract and retain staff. And it’s the way we’re going to attract and retain students in this day and age of school choice.”

The project that resulted has helped slash the district’s annual energy consumption by 1.6 million kilowatts and in three years generated enough savings to transform the district’s $250,000 budget deficit into a $1.8 million surplus.

Just as Hester envisioned at the outset, a major chunk of the money is going toward teachers’ salaries — fueling pay raises that average between $2,000 and $3,000 per educator.

“Now we’re in the top quartile in the state,” Hester said.

The schools in Batesville aren’t alone. At least 7,300 schools across the United States are using solar to save on utilities, introduce students to renewable energy and — in some cases — reduce their planet-warming emissions.

That’s according to a report by Generation 180, a nonprofit that advocates for clean energy and tracks the proliferation of solar through the U.S. public education system.

According to the group’s analysis, in 2019, 16% of U.S. school districts had installed a total of 1,337 megawatts of solar capacity. That means that about 5.3 million students now attend schools with solar, representing an 81% increase since 2014.

Also notable was the organization’s conclusion that if every U.S. public school used 100% solar power, the education system could drive emissions reductions that would be equivalent to closing 18 coal-fired power plants.

Standing in the way are several challenges such as policy roadblocks, financing complications and unease in some communities about opting for a nontraditional energy source.

According to Generation 180, 28 states and the District of Columbia have adopted policies to begin addressing those obstacles.

The policies do so by allowing solar development companies like Entegrity to use power purchase agreements to finance, build and maintain solar arrays on a customer’s property. The customer then pays the developer for the energy that the panels produce over a period of time — almost always at a lower rate than it would pay the utility.

Nearly 80% of solar capacity installed at U.S. public schools resulted from the arrangements that shift solar’s financial and logistical burdens onto professional energy companies, according to Generation 180.

“That means more than three-quarters of that solar on schools is not coming out of school budgets — it’s getting paid for by a developer who owns, installs and maintains the solar energy system,” said Tish Tablan, a Generation 180 program director. “So they’re seeing no upfront costs and immediate cost savings.”

In Arkansas, the Legislature didn’t pass its own version of that policy until March 2019. So the Batesville district’s array — which got off the ground earlier that same year — did not benefit from the financing mechanism. Instead, the district acquired the necessary funds through a $5.4 million bond.

The project nonetheless was successful, and it since has had a ripple effect on the surrounding region.

“There’s at least 20 school districts just in our area that have emulated our model,” Hester said. “We have the numbers to prove and to show from performance that we’re walking the walk. That’s a slam-dunk for districts around us.”

Rick Vance, who oversees Entegrity projects in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri, confirmed that the Batesville project — with the help of the recently adopted Solar Access Act — spurred a significant uptick in the number of nearby school districts considering solar.

“Batesville is in Independence County. So is Cedar Ridge and Midland and Southside. … All of them are doing solar, and they’re all doing it with us,” Vance said.

According to Tablan, that’s why Generation 180 advocates for solar in public schools. In many areas, educational facilities serve as influential community hubs. And that puts them in a position to “equip and inspire people to take action on clean energy in their own communities,” she said.

Hester said one of the more surprising outcomes of the energy efficiency initiative was the positive reaction from the Batesville community — which sits in the shadow of Independence County’s coal-fired power plant.

Nearly 30% of the Batesville area’s population is more than 60 years old, Hester said, which contributed to his initial uncertainty regarding how the community would feel about using taxpayer dollars to install solar at the local high school.

But Batesville residents were quick to notch their support of the initiative, Hester added, and they commended the district for doing its best to be efficient with their tax money.

Hester attributed that attitude, in part, to the reality that the nearby plant, which is run by Entergy Arkansas, is set to shut down by 2030.

“People know that that coal plant has a limited life,” Hester said. “It’s a loss of revenue; it’s a loss of jobs. There’s an anxiety about that.”

“So when this started showing how there are ways to help offset [those losses] and move on in alternative ways … it became a very pleasant surprise,” Hester added.

Vance said that in his work with Entegrity, he does encounter some resistance to solar. Many people have long-standing relationships with their local utilities, and renewable energy often is a new and unfamiliar concept.

But he added that it ultimately comes down to the savings, jobs and environmental benefits that solar can offer any community. He called it a “boomerang effect.”

“I’m in real rural parts,” Vance said. But, he added, “I get a lot of affirmative nods when I’m able to explain that solar is the cheapest way to produce power in the world right now. It beats coal; it beats gas — you know, all the fossil fuels that you would expect someone with a different mindset would be more into.”

Wind and solar save money.  Money which is then available for other things,

Record lows for wind and solar costs

 From The Guardian

Renewable energy companies have promised to build and operate projects for record low minimum power prices in a New South Wales government tender that shows market interest is high.

The results of NSW’s first renewable energy tender were released on Monday, kicking off a series of auctions to be held over the next decade as the state transitions from coal-fired power generation.

The tender process fosters competition while providing companies and their backers with the confidence to develop projects, as winning bidders are guaranteed a minimum price for energy generation. When energy prices are higher than an undisclosed maximum, the spoils will be shared between the energy companies and the NSW government.

There were winning bids of less than $35 a megawatt hour for two solar farms and less than $50 a megawatt hour for a windfarm, the auction organiser, Aemo Services, said. These prices are perhaps the lowest for such auctions ever seen in Australia.

“The transition to clean renewable energy in NSW is essential and under way,” said the NSW energy minister, Penny Sharpe.

“This tender has shown how much demand there is to invest in NSW to build renewable energy and it is very welcome that this investment will also support 3,300 jobs over the next 10 years.”

The first tender locks in 1.4 gigawatts of new clean energy generation, bringing the total committed so far to 4.1 gigawatts as part of the former Coalition government’s 12 gigawatt target by 2030. This will go some way to replacing the coal-fired power stations dropping out of the market, such as AGL’s Liddell power plant did last week.

The new Labor state government has made public its concerns that the looming exit of Origin’s Eraring power station – the nation’s largest – in 2025 could leave the market short of supply in periods of high demand.

The tender also included long-duration renewable energy storage. The winning bidder, RNE Renewables, offered a battery that would supply 50 megawatts for at least eight hours (400 megawatt hours). AEMO Services did not provide the winning bid’s price.

Three of the four winning bids were for projects in NSW’s special renewable energy zones, including ACEN Australia’s 720 megawatt solar farm planned for New England and a 400 megawatt solar farm earmarked for the central-west Orana zone, also by ACEN. The battery is in the south-west zone.

Goldwind Australia also won for its 275 megawatt Coppabella windfarm in the southern tablelands.

AEMO Services estimates the projects will avert as much as 11m tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over a 20-year period.

Wholesale power prices in the national electricity market averaged $83 a megawatt hour in the first quarter of 2023, down about two-thirds from the record levels of $264 averaged in the June quarter of last year.

The executive general manager of AEMO Services, Paul Verschuer, said the projects were first assessed on their “social licence commitments, deliverability and quality”, with a second level assessing financial value.

“This tender round has brought forward a range of innovative and considered initiatives from proponents, including ambitious projects to secure employment outcomes for First Nations people, careful and creative site selection and other community benefits,” Verschuer said.

To put this in perspective, A$35/MWh is US$24/MWh, A$50/MWh is US$35/MWh.  Or, another way of looking at it, A$35/MWh is 3.5 cents per kWh.  This is extraordinarily cheap.  I pay >30 c/kWh, as well as a monthly fixed charge for the "poles and wires".       

Because wind blows at night when the sun doesn't shine, and because wind is at worst uncorrelated with solar, and at best negatively correlated, it's easier to get a stable grid with a mixture of wind and solar.  Its average cost would be $42.50/MWh.  

Even if you have twice as much capacity as you would on average need, the cost per MWh would be $85, way below the cost of new coal or gas (>$120/MWh).  And that assumes that output is curtailed when there is too much wind and sun.  What if surplus green electricity is used to make green hydrogen and green methane instead of being curtailed?  Then the cost is lower.  What if we build more HV powerlines, connecting areas with different climates and time zones, minimising the need for overcapacity?  Then the cost is lower, too.  

In other words, at these prices, we can easily switch to 100% renewables at a lower cost than the existing grid.  (Last year in NSW, the average grid price was $198/MWh, the year before $81.)   So far this year, just 31% of NSW's electricity has come from renewables, including hydro.   The new renewable energy zone concept, which involves HV grid connections plus a guaranteed minimum price set by auction, will turbocharge NSW's switch to renewables. 

Indian metal producers switch to renewables

From Bloomberg

India’s metal producers are speeding up their transition to renewable power after a coal crisis led to a supply crunch and sky-high prices of the fossil fuel, according to Greenko Energy Holdings.

GIC Pte.-backed Greenko, one of India’s largest renewable energy companies, signed an agreement earlier this month with Hindalco Industries Ltd. to provide carbon-free electricity to the aluminum producer’s Odisha smelter for 25 years, following a similar deal with ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Ltd.

Greenko is now in talks with two to three other metal producers for round-the-clock power supply, co-founder Mahesh Kolli said, declining to name the firms.

The coal crisis is “a big factor that accelerated this transition” to renewable power from coal-based energy usage, Kolli said in an interview. The metals industry in India is willing to invest in renewable energy and build solar plants, adding a big funding source for clean energy, he said.

The country is emerging from an acute power crisis after a blistering summer and a post-pandemic industrial revival, which spurred electricity demand and overwhelmed domestic coal output. That prompted some metal producers to scour global markets for supplies, where prices are trading near record levels.

The increased expenses slashed profits of some of the biggest mills in India at a time when commodity prices were rallying to multi-year highs. They are now exploring ways to minimize their dependence on coal, with renewable energy looking more attractive.

“In this carbon-free energy that we are giving, this price is fixed for the next 25 years,” Kolli said. “So now at least when the price goes up, they benefit a lot.”

ounded in 2004, Hyderabad-based Greenko develops solar, wind and hydro power projects with 7.5 gigawatts of operating capacity across 15 states in India. Aside from GIC, it counts Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Japan’s Orix Corp. as investors.

Greenko uses hydro-pumped storage technology to ensure round-the-clock power to the mills. Unlike Europe and the US, where storage costs are high, developers in India have been following a similar model to China and have managed to control the expenses using this cheaper technology, Kolli said.

Greenko expects to benefit as India’s renewable market opens up due to rapid industrial decarbonization. Currently, India’s renewable energy market is dominated by state-run power utilities as the government has ordered them to buy a certain percentage of clean electricity. To spur industrial carbon reduction efforts, India’s power ministry has changed rules to allow large power consumers to buy green electricity directly from a supplier of their choice without having to pay heavy charges to the state distribution utilities.

“The industrial decarbonization, without putting obligations on utilities, is a four to five times bigger opportunity for renewables,” Kolli said.

Renewable costs plunged again in 2021

 From IRENA

The competitiveness of renewables continued to improve in 2021. Data from the IRENA Renewable Cost Database and analysis of recent power sector trends affirm their essential role in the journey towards an affordable and technically feasible net zero future. 

The global weighted average cost of newly commissioned solar photovoltaics (PV), onshore and offshore wind power projects in 2021 fell. This was despite rising commodity and renewable equipment prices in 2021 given there is a notable lag before these cost increases appear in project total installed costs; and significant improvements in performance in 2021 raised capacity factors, especially for onshore wind. 

The global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of new utility-scale solar PV projects commissioned in 2021 fell by 13% year-on-year, from USD 0.055/kWh to USD 0.048/kWh. With only one concentrating solar power (CSP) plant commissioned in 2021, after two in 2020, deployment remains limited and year-to-year cost changes volatile. Noting this caveat, the average cost of electricity from the new CSP plant was around 7% higher than the average in 2020.

The global weighted average LCOE of new onshore wind projects added in 2021 fell by 15%, year-on-year, from USD 0.039/kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2020 to USD 0.033/kWh. China again dominated new onshore wind capacity additions in 2021 and also experienced, against the trend elsewhere, falling wind turbine prices. The cost of electricity for new onshore wind projects excluding China, fell by a more modest 12% year-on-year to USD 0.037/kWh. The offshore wind market, saw unprecedented expansion in 2021 (21 GW added), as China increased its new capacity additions and the global weighted average cost of electricity fell by 13% year-on-year, from USD 0.086/kWh to USD 0.075/kWh.

Cost reductions were not universal however, the country weighted average total installed costs of utility-scale solar PV increased year-on-year in three of the top 25 markets, while for onshore wind this was true of seven of the top 25 markets in 2021. The period 2010 to 2021 has witnessed a seismic shift in the balance of competitiveness between renewables and incumbent fossil fuel and nuclear options. The global weighted average LCOE of newly commissioned projects utility-scale solar PV projects declined by 88% between 2010 and 2021, that of onshore wind and CSP by 68%, and offshore wind by 60% (Figure ES.2).

Note that the fossil fuel cost range includes cheap gas in the US.
Gas outside the USA is much more expensive.

 In 2021, the global weighted average LCOE of new utility-scale solar PV and hydropower was 11% lower than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired power generation option and that of onshore wind 39% lower. Geothermal and bioenergy globally remain, on average, more expensive than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option, but provide secure supply and can be very competitive in non-OECD regions. Rising commodity prices, especially materials prices such as steel, copper, polysilicon and aluminium; saw module and wind turbine prices rise from around Q4 2020. For instance, depending on materials prices and other supply chain pressures over the rest of this year, solar PV module prices might average a fifth more than they did in 2020. Yet, in 2021, the global weighted average cost of electricity from new solar PV and onshore wind fell. There are a number of potential reasons for this, including:

• Overall equipment cost increases were modest in late 2020 and into early 2021, when many projects commissioned in 2021 would have placed orders. 

• Larger projects have greater purchasing power and longer lead times, and are increasingly dominating capacity additions outside Europe. 

• Contingency allowances in many projects will have absorbed some or all of any increased costs. • Technology improvements (e.g. more efficient PV modules and larger wind turbines) and improvements in manufacturing efficiency and scale continue.

• China remains the dominant market for new solar and wind and has lower commodity prices, transport costs, while wind project developers squeezed turbine price reductions from manufacturers in 2021. 

However, the data suggests that not all of the materials cost increases witnessed to date have been passed through into equipment prices, while manufacturer’s margins have also been squeezed. If materials prices remain elevated in 2022, this suggests – when combined with the lag between materials costs increases and project costs – that price pressures in 2022 will be more pronounced than in 2021 and total installed costs are likely to rise this year in more markets. 

The impact on the levelised cost of electricity for solar PV and onshore wind is, however, likely to be modest – in the order of 2-4% for utility-scale solar PV and 4-9% for onshore wind. Increasing profit margins to the more sustainable levels seen in 2017, might increase this figure for onshore wind to an 8% to 12% increase, but it is not clear if all these cost increases could be passed through in 2022 alone. 

More importantly, with the extremely high fossil fuel prices already experienced in 2022 likely to continue, the additional cost is outweighed many times over by the economic benefit of new renewable capacity. 

Indeed, the extent of the benefits from renewables in 2022 will be unprecedented. Assuming average wholesale fossil gas prices in 2022 of USD 0.109/kWh in Europe, the average generated fuel-only cost (excludes carbon dioxide (CO2) prices) of existing fossil gas generators will be in the order of USD 0.23/kWh, or 540% higher than in 2020. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) emission prices also raises fuel costs to USD  0.27/kWh in 2022, or 645% higher than in 2020, (Figure ES.3). To put this figure of USD 0.27/kWh in context; this is 4 to 6 times more expensive than the new solar and onshore wind capacity added in Europe in 2021 and it exceeds the average retail tariff (excluding taxes and levies) paid by households in 13 EU of the 27 countries in 2020 that covered transmission, distribution, wholesale electricity purchases, marketing and overheads.

 Countries investments in renewables are paying huge dividends in 2022. Globally, new renewable capacity added in 2021 could save USD 55 billion this year alone, given the fossil fuel price crisis. Looking at the benefit of the cumulative stock of renewables draws an even starker picture. In Europe, between January and May 2022, solar PV and wind generation alone have likely avoided in the order USD 50 billion in fossil fuel imports, predominantly fossil gas. The unprecedented extent of the fossil fuel price crisis in 2022 has overshadowed the fact, that without renewables, the situation for consumers, economies and the environment would be much worse. 

Marginal fossil fuel electricity generating costs are so high in 2022, that a new onshore wind plant connected to the grid on 1 January 2022 and operating in the wholesale market might receive revenues in 2022 alone that are between around two (in Mexico) and thirteen times (in Brazil), the required annual return on capital required from the possible marginal avoided costs of fossil fuel generation for the full year. That countries have not prioritised accelerated renewable power generation capacity deployment in this year, but left the response largely to individuals and business, appears likely to have cost society billions of dollars this year and the next in direct energy costs. This is before accounting for the macroeconomic damage that accrues from the fossil fuel price crisis.

My take on this:  

I don't think neither hoi polloi nor politicians are aware of just how cheap renewables are compared with fossil fuels.  Granted, current very high fossil fuels are likely to decline again as we go into recession, globally, but even in 2020, before the recent price surges, renewables were still cheaper.  Also, which everybody, from citizens, politicians, and electricity companies likes, the costs are fixed, once the wind or solar farm is built.  Fossil fuels aren't just more expensive.  They're also more volatile.

We have passed peak coal, that much is clear.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown the dangers of relying on bloodthirsty petro-state dictators, and that means we will see peak gas soon too, as Europe weans itself off Russian gas.  And peak oil is close, as EV sales grow exponentially.  Good news for the climate, bad news for fossil fuel companies.