The very clever Scottish electoral system

The capital of Scotland, Edinburgh

Scotland's elections are conducted using a very clever combination of first past the post and proportional representation.

From Bylines Scotland

Ultimately, the outcome of any democratic election depends on how voters decide to cast their ballot. However, the impact of their choice also depends on how their votes are treated by the electoral system. That is likely to prove particularly the case in the Scottish Parliament election in May.

As at previous devolved [Scotland only] elections, the battle for Holyrood [the Scottish Parliament] will be conducted using a variant of the ‘Additional Member System’. It comes in two parts. Of the 129 MSPs to be elected, well over half will be chosen using first-past-the-post. In 73 separate constituencies, voters will be able to cast a vote for their local MSP. Whichever candidate secures most votes in each seat is elected. At previous Holyrood contests, the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the SNP have put up a candidate in every constituency, whereas the Greens have only contested a handful. It remains to be seen how many constituencies Reform will decide to fight.

The remaining 56 seats are elected using a system of proportional representation. For this purpose, Scotland is divided into eight regions, each of which elects seven ‘additional’ members. Each party puts forward a list of candidates in rank order. Voters are invited to vote for one of these regional party lists – they can vote for the party whose candidate they have backed as their local constituency MSP or for a different party. Crucially, the seven additional members are allocated to the parties such that the overall tally of seats in a region – both constituency and list – is as proportional as possible to the share of the list vote cast for each party in that region.

The constituency race

Polls taken towards the end of 2025 put the SNP, on average, at 34% on the constituency ballot, well down from the 48% the party secured at the last Holyrood election in 2021. Nevertheless, the SNP were still well ahead of its nearest rivals, that is, Reform on 20% and Labour on 16%. Trailing further behind were the Conservatives with 10% and the Liberal Democrats with 9%, while the Greens (who again may not contest many constituencies) were on 8%.

Support for the SNP does not vary a great deal from one part of Scotland to another. Given the size of its Scotland-wide lead, on these figures the party is therefore likely to be ahead in most constituencies. Consequently, despite the fall in its support, the SNP might well retain all but a handful of the 62 constituency seats the party won in 2021. In that event, the outcome of the constituency contests would be highly disproportional. The party will likely have won three-quarters to four-fifths of the constituency seats on little more than a third of the vote.

A barrier for Reform and the Greens?

On the evidence of last year’s Westminster election, support for Reform could also be quite evenly spread across Scotland. But whereas first-past-the-post is generous to a party with an evenly spread vote that is well in the lead (because it comes first in most constituencies), it punishes a second (or third) placed party whose share of the vote is much the same everywhere (because it comes second or third almost everywhere).  As a result, Reform might fail to win a single constituency seat – along with the Greens. In contrast, the other opposition parties – the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats – all have local fiefdoms that should ensure they all at least win some constituency seats.

Reform is thus likely to be especially dependent on winning regional party list seats. At 19%, their level of support on the list vote in recent polls has been similar to their 20% support on the constituency ballot. Much the same is true of Labour (16%), the Conservatives (12%), and the Liberal Democrats (9%). But, at 29%, support for the SNP on the list vote has been markedly lower, not least because those who say they would back the SNP on the constituency vote are especially likely to say they would support the Greens on the list vote. Indeed, at 12%, support for the Greens has been both four points higher than on the constituency ballot and four points up on what the party won in 2021.

Compensation on the list?

Consequently, as at previous Holyrood elections, the Greens will be dependent on the allocation of list seats. But this time around, the single biggest beneficiary could prove to be Nigel Farage’s party. Indeed, if Reform does emerge as the second most popular in list votes, it could win sufficient list seats to become the second largest party and thus the official opposition at Holyrood.

However, under these circumstances the allocation of list seats will not correct fully the over-representation secured by the SNP in the constituency contests. The party’s likely success in those would mean that, despite not being awarded a single list seat, the nationalists will have 45% or so of the seats in the chamber, well above the party’s 29% share of the list vote. There are simply too few party list seats to reverse the SNP’s likely over-representation on the constituency ballot.

One election in two different parts

Between them, then, the two parts of Holyrood’s electoral system are likely to have a significant impact on the shape of the next Holyrood chamber. The outcome of the first-past-the-post contests could well ensure that, despite being far less popular than five years ago, the SNP remain the dominant force in the parliament. Yet at the same time, by ensuring both the Greens and Reform secure representation they might otherwise lack, the allocation of party list seats could still prove crucial. The Greens could do well enough to ensure that, together with the SNP, there is once again a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

Meanwhile, the list part of the system opens up the possibility that Reform could become the second largest party in seats should they manage to emerge as the second largest party in votes. All of which could leave the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats at risk of all looking a little bit like ‘also rans’.

2022 was Scotland and the UK's hottest year

From the BBC

The Met Office has confirmed that 2022 was Scotland's hottest year on record.

The average temperature was 8.5C, beating the previous record of 8.43C in 2014.

Across the UK, the average annual temperature last year passed 10C for the first time at 10.03C - topping the previous high of 9.88C in 2014.

A study by Met Office scientists has concluded that human-induced climate change has made record annual temperatures 160 times more likely.

All four nations set records for heat in 2022, with England seeing the highest average temperature at 10.94C, followed by Wales (10.23C), Northern Ireland (9.85C) and then Scotland (8.50C).

The year also saw Scotland set its highest ever daily temperature, when it hit 34.8C (94.6F) at Charterhall in the Borders on 19 July.

Dr Mark McCarthy, head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, said: "Although an arbitrary number, the UK surpassing an annual average temperature of 10C is a notable moment in our climatological history.

"This moment comes as no surprise, since 1884 all the 10 years recording the highest annual temperature have occurred from 2003.

"It is clear from the observational record that human-induced global warming is already impacting the UK's climate."

The latest data shows that 15 of the UK's top 20 warmest years on record have all occurred this century - with the entire top 10 within the past two decades.

The Met Office said that a UK mean temperature of 10C would have been expected once in 500 years in a natural climate - before humans started producing the emissions that are responsible for climate change through activities such as burning fossil fuels.

But it said this was now likely to occur every three to four years.

[Read more here]

Tory war on woke

The Tories are the Conservative Party, in the UK.  The Party is having a leadership contest.  I love the demented drawings, which capture exactly the essence of the two very unattractive contenders,

The cartoon is by Steve Bell

It's survived countless summers, but now ....

 From The Guardian

The UK’s longest-lasting snow patch, which has survived through countless summers on a remote mountainside in the Cairngorms, has melted away for only the eighth time in 300 years as the Cop26 climate talks take place in Glasgow.

Nicknamed “the Sphinx”, the hardy patch of snow is found on Braeriach, Scotland’s third-highest mountain at 1,296 metres (4,252ft), near Aviemore. It had shrunk to the size of an A4 piece of paper in recent weeks before finally disappearing in mild weather.

Iain Cameron, an expert in snow cover who has been studying snow patches in Scotland for 25 years, said global heating was a significant factor. “How ironic and prescient it is that our longest-lasting patch of snow melted for the third time in five years, right on the eve of Cop26. Before 2000 it had melted only three times in the last 150 years.”

According to records, the Sphinx previously melted fully in 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2017 and 2018. Before 1933, it is thought to have last melted completely in the 1700s.

Cameron, author of the book The Vanishing Ice, said warmer weather caused by the climate crisis “seemed to be the logical” explanation for the increased rate of melting. “What we are seeing from research are smaller and fewer patches of snow. Less snow is falling now in winter than in the 1980s and even the 1990s.”

The Sphinx lies in Garbh Choire Mor, a hollow known as a corrie that was formed by ice or a glacier during the last ice age.

A report commissioned by Cairngorms National Park Authority and published last year said declining snow cover had been observed on Cairngorm mountain since the winter of 1983-84. Researchers also noted a trend for increasingly warmer weather since the 1960s, and suggested that by the 2080s there would be some years with very little or no snow at all on Cairngorm.

Before they were hit by coronavirus closures, Scotland’s ski resorts faced one of their most difficult seasons in 2019, with a lack of snow forcing them to close many of their slopes.

Iain Cameron with Sphinx snow patch in 2019. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Scotland's hottest September day in 115 years

Burnmouth, Scotland
MERCURYB/BBC WEATHER WATCHERS

 

From The BBC

Scotland's highest September temperature in 115 years has been recorded in the Scottish Borders.

The Met Office said the temperature in Charterhall had reached 28.6C.

It said this had made Wednesday the warmest September day in Scotland since 1906 when Gordon Castle in Moray hit 32.2C.

The warm weather - which has been experienced widely across Scotland this week - has seen the Met Office issue a warning for thunderstorms on Thursday.

The yellow "be aware" warning is in place for all mainland Scotland, Skye, the Inner Hebrides and Western Isles from 10:00 to 20:00.

The Met Office said some places could see 20mm to 30 mm of rain fall in less than an hour, and up to 40 mm in two hours.

Last month, the Met Office said its provisional figures showed Scotland had its fourth hottest summer on record.

The city of Glasgow had its hottest ever summer since records began in 1884.

The Met Office said it was unusual for the UK's highest August temperature to come from Scotland.

Most powerful tidal turbine ever starts generating

 

From The BBC

A tidal-powered turbine, which its makers say is the most powerful in the world, has started to generate electricity via the grid in Orkney. The Orbital O2 has the capacity to meet the annual electricity demand of 2,000 homes for the next 15 years.

In May, it was sailed out of Dundee, where it was assembled over 18 months.

The 680-tonne turbine is now anchored in the Fall of Warness where a subsea cable connects the 2MW offshore unit to the local onshore electricity network.

Orbital Marine Power said its first commercial turbine, which will be powered by the fast-flowing waters, is a "major milestone".

It is also providing power to an onshore electrolyser to generate green hydrogen.

The turbine's superstructure floats on the surface of the water, with rotors attached to its legs which extract energy from the passing tidal flow.

 

It is held on station by a four-point mooring system with each mooring chain having the strength to lift over 50 double decker buses.

Electricity is transferred from the turbine via a dynamic cable to the seabed and then through a static cable to the local onshore electricity network.

The company is now aiming to commercialise its technology in a move it says will deliver a jobs boost to coastal communities.

Mr Scott said: "We believe pioneering our vision in the UK can deliver on a broad spectrum of political initiatives across net zero, levelling up and building back better at the same time as demonstrating global leadership in the area of low-carbon innovation that is essential to creating a more sustainable future for the generations to come."

The construction of the O2 turbine was enabled by public lenders through the ethical investment platform, Abundance Investment.

It also received £3.4m from the Scottish government's Saltire Tidal Energy Challenge Fund.

Energy Secretary Michael Matheson said: "With our abundant natural resources, expertise and ambition, Scotland is ideally-placed to harness the enormous global market for marine energy whilst helping deliver a net-zero economy.

"The deployment of Orbital Marine Power's O2, the world's most powerful tidal turbine, is a proud moment for Scotland and a significant milestone in our journey to net zero."

On my calculations, this tidal generator will provide about 2% of Scotland's power, meaning that just 5 of these will provide 10% of Scotland's electricity.  Scotland uses roughly 10% of the UK's power, so 50 of these machines could provide 10% of the UK's electricity.   We can get to ±90% renewables in the grid, with around 4 hours of storage.   Larger percentages of wind and solar will require exponentially more storage, so the remaining 10% will need to come from more stable generation sources.  For now, that will likely be gas, but tidal power, wave power, and micro hydro, though each will be relatively small on their own, could fill the gap.  Tidal power is more expensive than wind because it is a relatively new technology.  But the question is: is it more expensive than the exponential jump in battery storage we'll need to get to 100% without it?  And is it more expensive than nuclear?

Scotland reaches 97% renewables

 From The BBC.

Scotland has narrowly missed a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity demand from renewables in 2020.   New figures reveal it reached 97.4% from renewable sources.  This target was set in 2011, when renewable technologies generated just 37% of national demand.

Industry body Scottish Renewables said output had tripled in the last 10 years, with enough power for the equivalent of seven million households.  Chief executive Claire Mack, said: "Scotland's climate change targets have been a tremendous motivator to the industry to increase deployment of renewable energy sources.  "Renewable energy projects are displacing tens of millions of tonnes of carbon every year, employing the equivalent of 17,700 people and bringing enormous socio-economic benefits to communities."

In 2019 Scotland met 90.1% of its equivalent electricity consumption from renewables, according to Scottish Government figures.  Scotland has some of the most ambitious climate targets in the world, with its Climate Change Bill setting out a legally binding target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2045.  By 2030, ministers want renewable energy generation to account for 50% of energy demand across electricity, heat and transport.

Ms Mack, added: "Domestic and commercial transport accounts for almost 25% of the energy used in Scotland, with heat making up more than half, as well as more than half of its emissions.  "Currently 6.5% of our non-electrical heat demand is generated from renewable sources.  Industry and government must continue to work together if we are to fully realise our potential to meet net-zero by 2045."

The next steps on the road to zero carbon will be carbon-neutral gas for heating, and electric vehicles.

Scotland on path to 100% green electricity by 2020

Ardrossan wind farm.  Source: Wikipedia

From World Economic Forum:

So far this year, Scotland's wind turbines have produced almost double the amount of wind energy needed to power every household in Scotland, according to WWF.

As WWF explained in the report, between January and July of 2019, Scotland generated 9,831,320 megawatt hours (MWh) of wind energy, as per data recorded by WeatherEnergy. That's enough to power 182 percent of all 4.47 million Scottish homes, or nearly 100 percent of homes in both Scotland and the North of England. The new figures have set a new record for the country's wind power output.

“These are amazing figures, Scotland’s wind energy revolution is clearly continuing to power ahead. Up and down the country, we are all benefitting from cleaner energy and so is the climate," Robin Parker, WWF Scotland's Climate and Energy Policy Manager, said in a statement for WWF.

Alex Wilcox Brooke, Weather Energy Project Manager at Severn Wye Energy Agency, added that these statistics show how reliable wind energy can be. “These figures really highlight the consistency of wind energy in Scotland and why it now plays a major part in the U.K. energy market," Brooke told WWF.

Scotland is pretty forward-thinking when it comes to renewable energy. As detailed on Scotland's government website, the country has a goal of using renewable energy sources to provide 100 percent of Scotland's gross annual electricity by 2020. If Scotland accomplishes this goal, that would mean that beginning next year, Scots will not be using any fossil fuels to generate electricity.

When Scotland set that 2020 target, it also set an interim goal of powering 50 percent of its electricity with renewable energy by 2015.

Since achieving that interim goal in 2015, Scotland has continued to ramp up its dependency on renewable energy. The Independent called the country a "world leader" in renewable energy, and noted that in 2016, 54 percent of Scotland's electricity came from renewables, and in 2017, 68.1 percent came from renewables. And in 2018, 74.6 percent of Scotland's gross electricity came from renewable sources, according to Power Technology.

When a country at first starts to replace fossil fuels with renewables, the percentages seem to mount so slowly.  It's just 2% then 4% then 6%, and fossil fuels remain overwhelmingly important.  The task of getting to 100% seems overwhelming.  But then we reach a tipping point, where suddenly renewables are significant, and not long after that, it is fossil fuels which provide only small percentages of total generation. 

This is because of the effect of compound growth.  If renewables capacity is growing by 20% per annum, even if you start with just 5% of your electricity coming from renewables,  within 10 years it will have reached 30% and within 20, 100%.    The annual growth rate in renewables capacity is the key factor, eventually, even though at the beginning the transitions seems so slow.  Every country should commit to increasing their renewables capacity by 20% per annum.  Even if at the beginning that doesn't lead to big falls in emissions, within a few years, it will.