Showing posts with label The Guardian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Guardian. Show all posts

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Feedback climate loops very bad news

 

Fiercer wildfires in drying forests are occurring globally, as seen in this image from Indonesia in August 2026. Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA


From The Guardian

Rising global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels are transforming the world’s forests, wetlands and tundra to the point they are releasing emissions that could further worsen global heating by as much as 30%, a new study has found.

As the world heats up, permafrost in the high latitudes is thawing, fiercer wildfires are burning in drying forests and wetlands and lakes are warming. All of these changes are themselves causing the release of planet-heating methane and carbon dioxide locked in trees and soils, therefore worsening the climate crisis, the paper states.

While scientists have long known of these “feedback loops” that amplify the impact of direct pollution from burning coal, oil and gas, the emissions from natural sources are largely unaccounted for in climate projections.

This additional heating is, however, significant, researchers found, with emissions from natural sources set to amplify global heating by 20% to 30% by the end of this century. This would add an estimated 0.2C to 0.4C to the global average temperature by this time, depending on the overall action taken by countries to combat the climate crisis.

Even small fractions of temperature change across the global climate can greatly change the risk of severe and deadly heatwaves, floods, drought and other impacts.

The United Nations last week conceded the international pact to constrain the global temperature rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will be breached in the next few years, causing climate impacts such as this summer’s record heatwaves and wildfires to “strike faster, hit harder and last longer”.

Yet the increase in the world’s fever will likely be even larger than most projections currently account for, the new research warns, as they do not factor in the methane and CO2 that will spew from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters and wildfires – the four areas the paper analyzed.

“This hidden multiplier is missing from the models guiding climate policy, so those models are likely underestimating how much warming is coming – and overestimating how much carbon we can still afford to emit,” said Sam Abernethy, a scientist at Spark Climate Solutions who led the research, published in Environmental Research Letters.

The disruption of the world’s carbon cycles is now being seen in “real time”, said Rob Jackson, a Stanford University scientist and study co-author. “The results are a wake-up call, and it’s imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies,” he added. “Failure to do so will make meeting the world’s climate goals less and less likely.”

There has been longstanding concern that should global heating melt enough of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, thaw enough permafrost, warp crucial ocean currents and turn the Amazon rainforest into a savannah, the world will career past a series of catastrophic tipping points where the climate system spins wildly outside any sort of restraining human influence.

The planet is getting closer to such a “point of no return” where this runaway global heating becomes reality, a separate study earlier this year warned.

This latest paper makes clear that action by countries to cut fossil fuel pollution will still lessen the amount of additional emissions that come from landscapes. Under the most optimistic climate scenario where emissions are cut quickly, natural sources will add 0.2C of warming, the paper found. Under a worst-case higher emissions scenario, 0.4C will probably be added.

Current policies put in place by governments are likely to see the global temperature rise to 2.6C above pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker. This will probably cause severe disruption and hardship to billions of people through sea level rise, crop losses and other consequences.

“One of the most troubling aspects of climate change is that warming can trigger natural processes that cause still more warming,” said Bill Ripple, an ecologist at Oregon State University who helped author the research earlier this year on runaway heating. He was not involved in the new paper, which he called “important”.

“This does not mean that a Hothouse Earth trajectory is inevitable, but it provides another warning about the possibility of reinforcing feedbacks that can amplify the warming humans initiate,” he said.

“The paper also reminds us why every fraction of a degree matters. The more we warm the planet, the more we risk activating natural processes that add still more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. This makes rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions even more urgent.”


These feedbacks are causing accelerated heating.  

Meanwhile, Australia is approving new and expanded coal and gas extraction, the US is cancelling wind farms and opposes EVs, the UK wants to licence new North Sea oil exploration, Europe is dragging its feet on the transition to EVs, and China, Indonesia and India are still building new coal power stations.  Politicians clearly do not accept the urgency of the change needed.

Friday, September 4, 2026

The Equal Earth map

Africa on the traditional world map based on the Mercator projection, left, and on the 2018 Equal Earth map, right. Composite: equal-earth.com, Getty Images


 From The Guardian


The UN general assembly will vote on Friday on a resolution for the world to formally phase out the traditional Mercator map of the globe in favour of one that more accurately displays Africa’s size.

Robert Dussey, Togo’s foreign affairs minister, said the resolution was sponsored by Togo and backed by countries including the African Union’s 54 other member states. He did not specify the total number.

“This discussion is not a political discussion [but] a scientific discussion, because there is scientific proof so we all have to accept the reality,” he said.

UN resolutions are non-enforceable but if the vote passes, it could lead to an update of classroom curriculums and everyday technology, given the wide usage of the Mercator projection in education, technology and governance.

The layout was introduced by the Flemish cartographer Gerardus Mercator in 1569 to help sailors navigate the seas. Almost five centuries later it remains the global standard.

Because of its projection style, however, regions near the equator appear significantly smaller than they are, whereas high-latitude areas look much larger. For example, the map shows Africa as being similar in size to Greenland, but the continent is 14 times larger than the Danish territory.

“You could fit the United States, China, India, Japan, Mexico and much of Europe into Africa and still have land to spare,” says a petition on Change.org for the #CorrectTheMap campaign, which has more than 11,000 signatures. The African Union endorsed the campaign in August 2025 and then asked Togo to spearhead its adoption.

Historians and geographers have said for years that the Mercator projection is rooted in western stereotypes. Activists have echoed this, with some coining the term “cartographic colonialism”.

Some argue that the map has subtly shaped international power dynamics by minimising the physical presence of the global south and visually inflating northern hemisphere nations while shrinking equatorial regions. This, they say, has reinforced systemic biases in international trade, development priorities and educational frameworks.

One of the Mercator projection’s most prominent critics was Arno Peters, a German historian, who launched the Peters world map based on the Gall–Peters projection in 1973. It has often been used as an alternative to the Mercator map.

Togo’s #CorrectTheMap campaign is promoting the use of the more accurate 2018 Equal Earth design, which was developed by an international team of cartographers. Supporters say it will help to reverse perceptions of Africa and decolonise global curriculums.

Some analysts agree too. JJ Enoch, a London-based senior associate at JS Held, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, said the Mercator projection visually diminished Africa’s true scale. He linked the campaign to a quest by African nations for “greater influence in global institutions and greater control over how the continent is represented”.

He added: “Adopting an equal-area map … would provide a more accurate basis for education and public understanding, while signalling that Africa’s demographic, economic and geopolitical importance should no longer be viewed through inherited and distorted conventions.”

Togolese authorities hope the vote will go the same way as another African Union-backed decision at the UN this year. In March a Ghana-sponsored resolution to describe the slave trade as “gravest crime against humanity” passed, with 123 states voting in favour. Three states voted no and 52 abstained.

Ghana’s success has given supporters of the map cause to believe in a favourable outcome. Togo’s government is planning an event in Lomé, the Togolese capital, with Unesco, the African Union and tech brands such as Google Maps during the first quarter of next year to map out the implementation of the resolution.

Dussey said: “To those who say why now, I say, why not? When we look at the world map … it is time for us to change the narrative.”

He added: “It’s time for us in Africa to take responsibility to change what we can change ourselves.”


Fascinating.  You can read The Guardian's piece here


I started following several African economies a while ago — industrial production, inflation, GDP,  exchange rates, discount rates.  What I monitor is still expanding, and I have finished work on it yet, but at some point I'll do some pieces on it.


The 2018 Equal Earth Map. Photograph: equal-earth.com


Thursday, September 3, 2026

El Niño 'supersizing' before our eyes

 From The Guardian


The El Niño climate phenomenon is “supersizing before our eyes”, the UN has said. The event is near certain to shatter temperature records, according to the latest forecasts.

The El Niño is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years and will pile extra heat into an atmosphere where temperatures are already rising rapidly due to global heating. The combination means 2027 is set to “blow apart” the record and be the hottest year ever recorded.

The rising heat from the El Niño is already having impacts, from worsening wildfires in Indonesia to the weakening of vital monsoon rains in India. The impacts will spread globally, from greater fire risk in Australia to more intense floods in South America. The World Food Programme said in August that the El Niño was likely to push about 50 million people into acute hunger.

The climate crisis, caused by pollution from fossil fuels, is already supercharging extreme weather and killing people, with the most extreme heatwave ever recorded hitting Europe this summer and leading to at least 35,000 deaths. The El Niño will ratchet up the impacts even further, with the scale of the event having been described as “truly mind-blowing” and a “Godzilla-level” event.

El Niño is a natural climate cycle where wind changes over the Pacific lead to rising ocean temperatures and the transfer of huge amounts of heat to the atmosphere. The most recent data, from Monday, shows the temperature of the ocean at the heart of El Niño at 2.6C above the 30-year average. That is already close to the highest anomaly ever recorded in the satellite data era, 3.1C in 2015, with months to go before the peak is expected.


That peak is forecast to reach about 4C in November, according to the average of 14 different models. Data from analysis of corals, tree rings and historical documents suggest no El Niño has reached this level in the last millennium, said Zeke Hausfather, a climate analyst. Any temperature anomaly above 0.5C is classed as an El Niño.

A further concern is that recent research shows global heating is now intensifying El Niño cycles, which then in turn intensify the impacts of the climate crisis.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN secretary general António Guterres. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”

The WMO El Niño updates are the world’s most authoritative forecasts and are based on a consensus of models from climate prediction centres around the world. The latest update, published on Thursday, said the El Niño was firmly established and would intensify into a “very strong event” in the coming months, with “big impacts” including floods, drought and extreme heat continuing well into 2027.

In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were an extraordinary 8C above average during July and early August.

Chris Jaccarini, of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit in the UK, said: “Extreme [weather] around the world has driven up food prices, hitting the poorest hardest. This is not just the food we import, but also what we grow at home.

“After five heatwaves and widespread drought, British arable farmers are now facing the worst harvest on record in 2026. And yet, without action, these could be the good years. Unless we rapidly cut emissions and strengthen resilience, climate change impact will continue to worsen with El Niño turbocharging the trend every few years.”


Yet governments are not 'supersizing' their efforts to slash emissions.

We could, for example, ban the import/production of pure petrol/diesel vehicles, allowing only hybrids and EVs.  After five years we would also ban hybrids, except for EREV*s. 

We could give electricity utilities a renewable energy target (RET), starting at the current average for the industry, for example, 40%, and upping it each year by 10%.  Utilities which don't reach this rising annual target each year would be required to buy surplus credits from those which have reached it, or from the government.  

We could ban new oil and gas heating for buildings, and subsidise heat pumps.  Together, all these steps could cut emissions by ~60%.   

But, paralysed by fossil fuel company funding and lobbyists, governments take none of these steps, even though the vast majority of their citizens are terrified of climate collapse and want something to be done.

Unless we act, we face catastrophe.

AI hell

By Ben Jennings



 

Saturday, August 29, 2026

How to spot a psychopath

Source: VeryWellMind

 
[To be honest, you won't have to look far to find many prominent examples.]

From The Guardian 


The classic checklist for psychopathy was developed in 1980 by Prof Robert Hare, who is still the recognised giant of the territory. The 20 traits, which ranged from pathological lying to a lack of empathy, were based entirely on prison populations. This worked because not only did Hare have the benefit of a large sample, with pronounced psychopathic behaviours, but he was able to compare interviews and self-reporting with data collected about the individuals – so inconsistencies could be identified.

However, Hare knew this approach was limited. In 1976, he said that he simply didn’t know to what extent his results could be generalised to non-incarcerated psychopaths, including female ones. “Research into the socially successful psychopath is badly needed,” he concluded. Even decades later in the early 2000s, when Hare wanted to look into psychopaths in politics, he still needed to go to prison to find them (Pinochet’s henchmen in Chilean jails). Research into the higher-functioning psychopath – who doesn’t get caught, or maybe doesn’t even resort to crime – has proved elusive, not least because self-reporting questionnaires don’t work. Psychopaths lie; arguably, that’s their main thing.

It wasn’t from a forensic psychology but a business studies background that Dr Karen Mitchell arrived in the territory of high-functioning psychopathy. By the late 2010s, she’d spent 30 years working as a consultant on large-scale change in corporate culture. Her work tended to be with organisations in crisis: “So it might be market alignment, or deaths or suicides in companies,” she tells me from her home in Australia. Observing the sheer number of problems at work that stemmed from specific individuals with predatory traits, she started to research those same “dark personality” behaviours in other precincts. “Child sex abuse in religion, coercive control in human trafficking and domestic violence and terrorism,” she says. “When you look at all our global knowledge on human predators, there are so many fields and none of them interact.”

This matters because predatory personalities cause an astronomical amount of harm. We’re bad at recognising them interpersonally, for reasons to be discussed, but we’re also bad at pattern finding in aggregate – mainly because different disciplines have so many different names for these kinds of people. Mitchell lists some of the terms: “Malignant narcissist, dark triad, psychopath, coercive controller, primary psychopath, grandiose narcissist, corporate psychopath, Machiavellian, dark tetrad, covert narcissist, toxic leader.” These are all traits that she argues are part of the same phenomenon, the Dark Personality, or the Persistent Predatory Personality.

Mitchell embarked on a PhD, published in 2024, in which she interviewed people who had met persistent predatory personalities professionally – some clinical, but others not, from fields as wide as HR, social work, family courts, the FBI and other law enforcement agencies, church leaders, and academics from different fields.

Her method, she says, was unorthodox, being qualitative, not quantitative. And some of her conclusions directly contradict clinical definitions of psychopathy, which rely heavily on impulsivity. Mitchell says this is because other definitions such as Hare’s are derived from the prison population, which is the low-functioning end of the scale. “People try and put Hare’s stuff into workplaces and domestic violence spheres, but there’s no way you can overlay something so blunt, built from criminal offenders, on to sophisticated CEO-type behaviours.”

Mitchell’s interviews are remarkable. People from very different fields say alarmingly similar things: there’s one question about whether the interviewee had themselves ever been frightened of a persistent predatory personality (bear in mind that these weren’t victims, they were seasoned professionals) and the answers came back: “I constantly worry that he will ruin my career” (from an HR person); “I worry that they will … want to seek revenge” (from a social worker); “I am pretty sure there are no lengths to which this man would not go to, to see that I am destroyed” (expert practitioner from the charity sector). These and arguably every statement from the interviews are so extreme that you can’t imagine saying them socially because you would sound mad – which some testimonies explicitly address. “People can’t get it. People who don’t work in our fields … often don’t hear about or see the kind of evilness perpetrated on others, and just can’t believe it. Whereas, unfortunately, it’s commonplace in my work.” (That’s from one forensic expert practitioner).

From this research, which took her five years, Mitchell built a template of 20 attributes, divided into four clusters, and 25 tactics that would identify a high-functioning persistent predatory personality type. Cluster one includes a need for control; a grandiose sense of self; pathological inner response to challenge; vengefulness; refusal to compromise. Cluster two includes being predatory or exploitative; sadistic and cruel; having a low regard for laws, agreements, social and moral codes; no boundaries in sexual relationships; unreasonable expectations of others. Cluster three relates to the truth: Dark Personalities cultivate a façade of normality; they are chameleon-like; dishonest; devious and manipulative; and unwilling to accept responsibility for the negative impacts they cause. Finally, cluster four is around the Dark Personality’s own interior life: their emotions are acted and they do not experience affinity or the joy that comes with it; they are callous and devoid of empathy; unremorseful; self-interested; and brazen.

Essi Viding, a professor of developmental psychopathology at UCL, is a leading figure from the classic research sphere, co-director of the Developmental Risk and Resilience Unit and Hare’s natural successor in many ways. “I often think of these individuals as having an in-group of one,” she says. “In social psychology, we talk about people that we care about, and most of us, because we’re group-living animals, collaborate, do altruistic acts, we’ll behave in ways that across the ages have increased our survival. But across the ages, we’ve had people who exploit other people’s altruism, and when the chips come down, only care about themselves.”

Viding fixes on the traits that leave society extremely bad at protecting itself against predatory behaviour. We all know that people lie, but think instinctively that we know when we’re being lied to. “These individuals almost short-circuit us in our ability to detect the danger signals until it’s too late,” Viding says. “The majority of us, if we get caught lying, look deeply uncomfortable. It’s not nice to get caught lying, we worry about our reputation, it’s embarrassing. But these individuals are not embarrassed when they’re caught lying. This has not been formally tested, but one might hypothesise that they take people in much more readily, precisely because they display these characteristics of extreme confidence and do not seem nervous.” She cites a 2019 paper in the Journal of Personality Disorders which developed the idea that behaviours which don’t normally go together in the human population – for example, absolute confidence and total untruth – tend to go together in Dark Personalities. This, Viding says, is why these people “can often do a lot of damage before anyone catches them”.

This causes much more havoc outside prisons than it does in them. While Mitchell says she stays out of politics, her tactics, once you see them assembled, are strikingly visible on the world stage. Indeed, the first time I read the phrase “dark triad” was when Donald Trump got elected the first time around.

The idea of a “pathocracy”, a democracy of normal people taken over by psychopaths, was conceived by an obscure Polish psychologist, Andrew Lobaczewski, who had lived under both the Nazis and then Soviet-era communists. His ideas never landed, because “the psychology publishers thought it was too political, and the political publishers thought it was too psychological,” according to editor and blogger Harrison Koehli. It’s unfashionable to the point of being taboo in psychiatry and psychology now to ascribe personality disorders to public figures. “One of the perils of bringing psychology into politics is that it’s very easy for anyone with any given political perspective to look at their political enemies or rivals and say: ‘OK, well, they’re all psychopaths,’” says Koehli. There’s also the Goldwater Rule, which established as a psychiatric principle that professionals are not allowed to diagnose public figures they haven’t had clinical contact with or met (this was after 1,189 psychiatrists declared Barry Goldwater unfit to be president in the 1964 election). Viding, however, finds the fixation with diagnosis perhaps irrelevant in this context. “I always find the obsession with diagnosing these people interesting. You don’t need to diagnose them, there are a set of personality traits, and you can recognise individuals with those traits. If someone’s in political power, you can see those exemplified in behaviour, and most people are perfectly capable of making an assessment of what that signifies.”

Brazen lying in public life is a tactic Lobaczewski recognised – he called it the “reversive blockade”. Koehli describes it as: “When you tell a lie convincingly and it’s such an absurd lie, most people’s automatic reaction is that they can’t comprehend a lie told on that scale, so they try to find the ‘golden mean’ between the statement and the reality. But that, Lobaczewski says, is the intention of the big lie. They know it will sow confusion.” The impact on the population over which a dark personality presides is huge: some will try and find that golden mean; others will remain steadfast in calling it a lie and fall out with the first lot; others will try to adjust their own reality to make the lie true; while others will become inured to the new normal – that we just all lie now.

On an interpersonal level, this brazenness is even more head-spinning. Often both predator and victim know it’s a lie, or the predator is accusing the victim of exactly the thing he or she just did, or the lie has been expressed using the victim’s own language. Reverse attribution is so familiar in the domestic-abuse sphere that it has its own acronym – Darvo, for deny, attack, reverse victim and offender – yet it still absolutely fogs the victims, who feel their credibility is permanently in doubt. In the workplace, the effects are also devastating, because there tend to be spectators who themselves have a decisive impact on the outcome. As Mitchell says about one of her interviewees who worked in HR: “People were genuinely convinced the dark personality was the victim and the victim was the dark personality. It destroyed the life of the victim, even though they had an excellent professional track record.”

The reality is that the higher the levels of these traits, the wider the harm caused. Mitchell describes one of her research participants, “The head of a large Catholic diocese, in charge of child sex abuse. She had a horrible job, right? Incredible, impeccable credentials, CEO of several children’s organisations. She’d go to the Holy See and say, ‘Look, this person has been abusing children’ and they’d go: ‘Really? But he’s such a nice guy.’”

In the non-criminal, non-violent space of endless persecution – as might happen in a workplace – there are layers of disbelief. People can’t fathom that the Dark Personality is dark, they can’t believe that anyone would want to be deliberately harmful, they can’t process that harm was caused at all. It was bracing to hear Mitchell describe workplace suicides as an issue that partly spurred her research, since it is completely forbidden, in the mental health world, to ascribe a person’s suicide to anyone else’s behaviour. Yet a landmark ruling in France did exactly that in 2019, and found “torment” in the workplace, linked to a number of executives, had created the culture at France Télécom in which 19 employees took their own lives, 12 attempted suicide, and eight suffered from serious depression, between 2006 and 2009. Jane Monckton-Smith, professor of public protection at the University of Gloucestershire, has said in the past that, if we included provoked suicides, domestic homicide statistics could be multiplied “five, six or seven times”.

In Hare’s study of Pinochet’s lieutenants, which spanned 20 years and was written up in 2022, “when they looked at individuals who were commanding officers, this top brass had really high levels of psychopathic features, particularly the lack of empathy for others,” says Viding.

Mitchell delivers her conclusion with businesslike bluntness: “These are completely boundary-less, dangerous people with very different brains – it’s like the difference between a domestic cat and a wild cat. Millions and millions of people have been hurt because we haven’t known the red flags, so we have to put them out there and then teach people to be discerning.” Viding, in different terms, and by a different route, has the same conclusion. “As I’ve done this research for 20-plus years now, I have increasingly started to think we really need to understand more about how we can inoculate people against being victimised. Because based on the literature, and what little I know about evolutionary and cross-cultural psychology, we are very unlikely to weed these traits out.”