More asphalt doesn't reduce road congestion .....

.... but light rail does.

From Transport & Environment (T & E)

We will have to get used to the fact that traffic jams are here to stay. After all, if traffic can move one per cent faster during rush hour, this will increase car commuting by just over one per cent. This follows from research by Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch Road Authority. The study provides a simple insight into the behavioural effects of various mobility measures. These are average effects that can vary in specific situations.

Rijkswaterstaat's findings are in line with international research. A synthesis of five studies concludes that in urban areas, one per cent extra motorway capacity leads to one per cent extra traffic. For urban trunk roads, the figure is 0.75 percent. This confirms the 'fundamental law of road congestion', as one of the five underlying studies is called. A study of the impact of 16 motorway widenings in the Netherlands also shows that the additional traffic growth on the main road network exceeds the increase in capacity.

Congestion regulates mobility behaviour. Excessive congestion encourages drivers to choose a shorter journey, to avoid the rush hour, to travel with someone else or to use another mode of transport. Less congestion has the opposite effect. After the opening of the Zeeburger tunnel near Amsterdam, 16% more cars crossed the North Sea Canal during rush hour, the average occupancy of these cars fell by 7% and 31% of drivers returned to driving during rush hour.

So, congestion remains. Back in 1988, McKinsey advised in its report 'Ending traffic jams' that more asphalt would not solve congestion. The statistics bear this out: after some ups and downs, the time lost per kilometre driven on Dutch motorways today is about the same as it was twenty years ago. Traffic jams slow traffic down by an average of one tenth of a kilometre per hour.

This analysis also implies that converting roadways to pedestrian zones, i.e., making roads traffic-free, will not increase congestion, even while it makes using the streets more pleasant for pedestrians.

Meanwhile, building light rail leads to less congestion, shorter travel times, and less pollution: 

From Science Direct

I find evidence that an increase in the supply of [light]rails [in European cities] leads to less congestion, less travel time and less pollution. Furthermore, I find that cities with a new rail system have 7% less congestion, 1% less travel time and 3% less pollution than cities with no rail systems. I find no evidence of different pre-trends of treated and control cities. The impact of rails on congestion, travel time and pollution is gradual, and increases over time.

The analysis would imply that expanding a light-train or tram system after the first section has been constructed will lead to further traffic/congestion reductions, especially with network effects.

This paper suggests that in Melbourne (with the world's largest tram network) the impact is somewhat larger, despite stops being much closer together than on most light rail systems:

In inner Melbourne trams have a much higher impact in reducing congestion; vehicle time travelled and total delay on the road network decreases by 3.4% as a result of tram operations. The average road network speed rises from 41.6 km/h to 41.9 km/h (an increase of 0.9%). The operation of trams in inner Melbourne increases actual travel time on average from 2.14 minutes/km to 2.13 minutes/km. Although trams contribute to reduce the number of car trips on the road network, the average travel speed increases slightly. This is because the travel speed on links with non-exclusive tram rights-of-way decreases due to the low speed of trams and boarding/ alighting passengers. The tram network contributes to reduce 16% of the number of moderately congested links in inner Melbourne

The moral of the story is clear:  if your freeways are getting congested, don't add more lanes or more freeways.  Build light rail.  And add pedestrianised streets, which, the Melbourne experience shows, work particularly well with trams.

See also :  Metcalfe's law

Why "baseload" is so antiquated

Hazelwood big battery. Source: Engie

Back in the 50s, electric grids everywhere had coal power stations backed up with peaking gas. Since coal power stations couldn't ramp up quickly (or economically) they tended to provide what was called "baseload". This was designed to provide a fixed supply of electricity to the grid, the level set at the point of lowest demand. The fluctuations in demand above that tended to be provided by gas, which can ramp up or down quickly.

Then along came wind and solar. Their output is driven by the weather. Peaks in supply didn't necessarily coincide with peaks in demand, although in hot places, the surge in demand because of a heatwave is now routinely met by a surge in output from solar. This required changes in how we run our grids. Most likely, we will end up with some over-capacity in wind and solar (estimates vary, but, say, around 20%) along with 4 to 6 hours of grid-wide storage.

Many still hanker for the old simplicities. The "Liberal"/National Party Coalition in Australia is very keen on nuclear. It doesn't matter that it's at least 50% more expensive even than new coal; or that new nuclear power stations in Australia won't start operating for, probably, at least another 15 years, which is a bit of a problem given that aging coal power stations will have closed down by then; or that even with 8 hours of storage with batteries (at current prices), wind and solar are 1/4 the cost of nuclear. But there is another problem with nuclear. It's even harder to ramp up or down than coal. And given the penetration of rooftop solar, the net demand on the grid (i.e., after rooftop solar) in east coast Australia now falls so low at midday that there simply is no space for GW-level baseload. (A situation already driving coal power stations to bankruptcy).

From Renew Economy

On Monday at around 5 pm (AEST), Victoria posted a new high for operational demand for the state’s grid of 9,581 megawatts (MW) in the midst of a record-breaking December heatwave.

Despite having two of its coal generation units off line, the state had little trouble dealing with the surge in demand because renewables were also delivering a record level of output.

Within 24 hours, however, the Australian Energy Market Operator, having spent much of the day issuing lack of reserve warnings for NSW and elsewhere, was back on line issuing a market notice of a different kind: warning not of a lack of reserve but of a lack of demand (minimum system load) for Victoria for Saturday, December 21.

The sudden switch from nearly too much demand to nearly too little demand is symptomatic of the dramatic changes that are occurring on the grid, and one of the fundamental reasons why most energy experts thing the idea of shoe-horning gigawatts of inflexible nuclear power capacity into the grid would be nuts.

The best to deal with such fluctuations, the experts say, is with flexibility – both in demand and supply – and most of that can be delivered by providing incentives to change the times when electricity is consumed, and ensuring fast reaction and flexible power sources, such as big batteries, can be deployed.

The warning for minimum system load cited potentially insufficient demand for Victoria at around 1pm on Saturday, with sunny conditions, high rooftop solar output, mild temperatures and the lack of business activity contributing to low operational demand.

The MSL notices are issued so that the markets can prepare a response. There are various options, but at the last resort AEMO can issue instructions to big batteries in that state (like the Hazelwood battery pictured above) to stand by on empty and get ready to charge – i.e. creating demand – if conditions warrant.

If that fails, there is a solar switch off mechanism, although that has limited application and is not popular, with either households or politicians and is seen as very much a last resort.

The MSL notice from AEMO – like another that was issued in early December – cited a forecast minimum demand of around 1,643 MW. The one issued for December 8 expected minimum load of around 1,250 MW.

This fits in with Tesla’s observations, in a submission to the federal nuclear inquiry, that most states in Australia, including Victoria, would struggle to support even 1 GW of baseload, or “always on” power because of the growing impact of renewables, and rooftop solar in particular.

It has warned that the federal Coalition’s nuclear power plan would result in “severe” constraints on rooftop solar – not just the occasional partial switch off in events like those cited above, but almost on a daily basis to accommodate nuclear power that does not like to ramp up and down.

“Given Australia’s world-leading solar and wind resources, and leading rates of rooftop solar PV, the power system’s minimum operating demand threshold becomes an upper ceiling for baseload supply to operate the power system in a secure and reliable state,” Tesla wrote in its submission.

“Increasing renewable penetration at these times further displaces baseload generation, reducing capacity factors and increasing the cost of supplying energy to consumers.

“The practical sizing of baseload generation is now significantly less than the minimum operating load.”

Vitasoy Australia's biggest year yet

The soy milk I drink,
which is the closest to the taste of cow's milk as I remember it.

From the ABC

A major Australian plant-based milk processor is forecasting its highest yearly production as consumers continue to embrace the dairy alternative.

Vitasoy Australia is tipped to produce about 70 million litres of soy, almond, oat, rice, and coconut milks on top of a new line of soy and oat-based yoghurts this year.

The factory, in Baranduda in north-east Victoria, opened in 2002 and at the time produced about 10 million litres a year.

Vitasoy Australia chief executive David Tyack said the market was projected to keep growing.

"In the past 10 years, there hasn't been a contraction in the market," Mr Tyack said.

"It's gone from the hippy-alternative sold in health food shops to a mainstream product. Forty per cent of Australian households now have a plant-based milk in the fridge."

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the amount of dairy substitutes purchased from supermarkets and other food retailers jumped another 14 per cent in 2020–21.

Almond milk had shown an increase of 31 per cent in apparent consumption from 2020–22.

Mr Tyack attributed the market's growth to a range of consumer behaviours including the "rise of veganism" and people wanting plant-based milk for health reasons.

"There's a needs basis. People who can't have lactose, and for coeliacs the only way to engage with milk is through rice milk," he said.

"Also, there are not many coffee shops that don't offer soy, almond, or oat milk."

Vitasoy said its most popular product for the past five years had been almond milk, however Mr Tyack expected oat milk to soon become the number one plant-based milk.


"Oat has gone absolutely ballistic in the past four years," Mr Tyack said.

"It's the most sustainable crop in the plant-based milk game, uses less water, less emissions and, in terms of taste, it's quite a neutral taste so it's a good gateway jump from dairy. It's creamy and in the coffee sense it makes coffee shine through."

Although soy milk was less popular than oat and almond, Mr Tyack said it still had a place in the market.

"The role that soy plays is that it's the closest to dairy milk in terms of protein calcium," he said.

"Almond and oat don't come anywhere near to the delivery of benefits."

Looking ahead, Mr Tyack said the future was bright for plant-based milks, however there was a limit to the growth.

"On top of the current 40 per cent, we know from our research there's another 30 per cent of households that are open to having plant-based milk in their repertoire but that's probably the limit," he said.

"The other 30 per cent of the market are dairy loyalists and won't consider a plant-based offer." [39 years ago, 90% of the public "wouldn't consider a plant-based offer".  We've come a long way.]

The plant-based milk market is still small compared to the dairy industry.

According to Dairy Australia, more than 8 billion litres of milk was produced last year, however that was the lowest raw milk production in 30 years.

This is a park in the area where the factory is located, 
which is in the foothills of the Great Dividing Range.

Record renewables in Australian grid

Even with relatively calm days producing the lowest recent quarterly utilisation rate, total wind farm output exceeded any previous December quarter. Photograph: Russell Freeman/AAP

From The Guardian

Milder temperatures and record levels of renewable energy drove [net] electricity demand to its lowest levels for any December quarter, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Wholesale power prices also retreated during the period, particularly after the Albanese government imposed price caps on black coal and gas that are used to generate power, AEMO said in its quarterly report released on Wednesday.

“Electricity futures prices saw steep falls in the mainland states through to the end of the quarter” after the price limits were imposed on 9 December, said Violette Mouchaileh, an AEMO executive.

The average price of $93/megawatt-hour across the national electricity market (NEM) that serves eastern Australia was less than half the $216/MWh cost in the September quarter. Still, it was almost 80% higher than for the final three months of 2021.

Renewable energy from wind, solar and hydro supplied an average of 40.3% of power in the NEM, a record for any quarter since the NEM started in 1998.

It exceeded the previous high, set a year earlier, of 35.8%, AEMO said.

The tail end of the third La Niña event in as many years trimmed power demand for daytime air-conditioning.

A 16% increase in electricity output from rooftop solar panels, or 410MW on average, also decreased demand from the grid.

As a result, [net] operational demand fell 2% from a year earlier to an average 19,431MW, the lowest December quarter reading. New record lows for a quarter were set in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, while the 11,892MW use on 6 November was a new low for the NEM in the December quarter.

Power generation from black and brown coal-fired plants was the lowest since the NEM started. Higher prices for the fossil fuel in Queensland and NSW – at least before the price caps began – was one factor for the reduced use but also plant failures, particularly in Queensland.

Increased output from renewable energy, with its near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market.

New instantaneous renewable penetration records were set in the NEM at 68.7% on 28 October – up 4.6 percentage points on the previous record – and in the Western Australian market at 84.3% on 12 December, up 3.7 percentage points. The records were “largely driven” by rooftop solar, AEMO said.

During a fault that cut South Australia off from other states for several days in November, renewables’ share of generation peaked at 91.5%.

“Output from wind and grid-scale solar grew strongly as new facilities were connected and commissioned,” AEMO said. Even with relatively calm days producing the lowest recent quarterly utilisation rate, total wind farm output exceeded any previous December quarter.

The percentage of renewables in the Ozzie grid is rising by rough 5% per annum.  At this rate, by 2035, we will have reached 100%.  However, the opening of new offshore wind farm lease areas off the cost of Victoria will most likely accelerate the switch.   We will still need some gas backup for cold, cloudy, windless days ("dunkelflaute"), which on average will be about 5% of total output.   Until, that is, we find a cheap means of long-term storage, such as molten-salt storage (CSP) or power to gas.   So the practical limit for non-hydro renewables now is prolly 85%.   And we could reach that by 2030.

Metcalfe's law

 

The London Underground is a dense, connected network, which makes it extraordinarily valuable
 to London and Southern England. 

From History-Computer

Metcalfe’s Law is one of the foundational principles of network economics. It suggests that as a network grows, its value grows much faster than its user base.

The idea behind Metcalfe’s Law is that, while a network’s cost generally grows as a direct proportion of its total number of nodes, its value grows in proportion to the square of that number. Network value grows fast because it’s related to the number of connections between nodes rather than the number of nodes. Metcalfe’s idea implies that node connectivity is the real source of utility in a network.

The word node comes from a Latin word that means knot. In this context, we use it to mean any endpoint in a network. Telephones, computers, train stations, or individual people can all act as nodes in different kinds of networks.

A network with 10 of these nodes might cost about 10 times the price of one node, but Metcalfe’s Law suggests that the network’s inherent value will be closer to 100 times the value of one node. If you add a node, the cost will jump to 11, but the value will jump to 121, the square of 11. In mathematical terms, network cost grows linearly, but network value seems to grow nonlinearly as an exponential function of the total number of nodes in the network.

Metcalfe’s Law isn’t a physical or perfect law of network value. Just like economics has the idea of supply and demand that works perfectly only under perfect conditions, Metcalfe’s idea of network effects is more of an approximation rather than an exact formula. It’s most useful as a conceptual model that you can use to think about network economics in general terms.

Metcalfe’s Law observes that any network’s value is a proportion of the square of the network’s total number of connected nodes.

The mechanics of Metcalfe’s Law are simple. If a network gains new nodes that can connect with all its existing nodes, then the amount of connections grows much quicker than the number of nodes. Every single new node adds as many connections to the network as there are existing nodes.

When Metcalfe first came up with the idea, he indicated that the formula for a network’s value worked best as an exponential function of its total number of nodes. He and other researchers like Bob Briscoe later scaled it back, calculating that the network value was closer to a logarithmic function of its number of nodes.

In 2013, data analysts from the Netherlands released a broad study of seven years of internet use across 33 European countries. They concluded that the growth patterns of smaller and newly launched networks do seem to follow Metcalfe’s exponential estimation. As a network grows, however, the growth of its value seems to taper off into a logarithmic rather than exponential function of its number of nodes.

Other recent studies involving data from the past decade from Facebook, Tencent, Bitcoin, and Ethereum networks also indicate that these networks seem to fit Metcalfe’s observation in their initial phases and then slow down as they reach widespread adoption.

The network effects of this value escalation tend to be both direct and indirect.  

We call network effects symmetric or direct when a node increase provides direct utility to the other nodes. We can see direct network effects in social networks like Twitter or Tinder, where additional users joining directly improves the user experience of the existing users, giving them the possibility of more followers or matches.

We call networks effects asymmetric or indirect when there is more than one type of node and a node increase provides indirect utility to other types of nodes. Indirect network effects show up in networks like Uber or Airbnb, where more drivers and hosts indirectly improve the experience of the riders and guests, and vice versa. Indirect effects often look like increased supply encouraging increased demand, which then encourages even more supply.

Metcalfe’s Law seems to work best when all the nodes in a network have equal value and provide equal benefit. Nodes with fewer connections are less valuable than highly connected nodes.

Many networks don’t match Metcalfe-style growth because some new nodes don’t create connections with all existing nodes. This can happen when, for instance, new users of a network speak different languages or have interests and expertise in areas that don’t overlap.

To estimate network effects accurately, we have to take into account not only the number of nodes but also the affinity between nodes. If a network’s cost per user is fixed and later users use the network less than the trailblazers, the newer users will be less valuable to the network, and the network will become less efficient.

While experts in network economics and computer science continue to battle over whether the correct formula for calculating network effects should be exponential, logarithmic, or some other function, Metcalfe’s general point is clear. A network’s overall value tends to grow much quicker than its size.

Metcalfe’s Law of network effects seems to have the strongest applications in these four main kinds of networks:

• Physical networks
• Protocol networks
• Personal networks
• Market networks

Physical networks are composed of physical nodes connected by physical links. These include electrical grids, roads, railroads, sewer systems, and broadband internet services.

Thanks to Metcalfe’s Law, it’s not uncommon to see these physical networks grow so powerful that they overwhelm smaller competing networks and turn into monopolies or duopolies. When that happens, governments tend to nationalize them and call them utilities.

Protocol networks are standards of use for digital or communications networks. They layout sets of rules for how nodes in a network must format and process data.

Nodes in protocol networks are generally digital devices rather than humans, so you can think of protocol networks as computer languages. Just like a human language, once a protocol network has been widely adopted, it’s nearly impossible to replace.

Ethernet is an example of a protocol network. When Metcalfe and Boggs came up with the Ethernet standard, other local area network protocols existed. Thanks to Metcalfe’s Law, however, the more market share Ethernet captured, the less valuable the competition became until it dwindled to almost nothing. More recent examples of protocol networks include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies.

A network is considered personal when the nodes are people. Human nodes may be anonymous or may have their real identities tied to their usernames.

Personal networks generally grow when real-life people find value in them and influence their inner circles to join as well. When a large number of people who you like and respect are using a network, you’ll usually find a lot of value in joining it too.

Examples of personal networks include TikTok and Facebook.

Market networks take the identity-based format of personal networks and combine it with the transactional focus of marketplaces to facilitate mass transactions from many buyers and sellers. Instead of optimizing for quick transactions, market networks generally encourage long-term projects that allow users to improve their reputation with each successful purchase or sale.

Market networks provide value in both directions, from the sellers to the buyers, and vice versa. In double-sided systems like these, the value is derived from the network connectivity not from the specific system itself. Once a market network is established, the two sides tend to cement the network in place. To get users to move, you have to find a way to provide more value to both sides at once than what they’re getting from the existing network.

I'd never heard of Metcalfe's Law before I read this article, but I realise now that I'd always understood it without being aware of it.  

In particular, I thought of it as it applies to public transport networks.  Think of the extraordinary network of the London Tube, including the Underground, the Overground, the new Elizabeth line (Crossrail), the tram network, and mainline trains and airports, where almost every line connects with several other lines.  

In Victoria, the tram (light rail) and transit networks don't connect very well.  There are connections at the main downtown termini, but in the suburbs, because the tramways and railways were owned by different companies, their stops at the end of the line are sometimes far apart.  It has been suggested to the public transport authorities that tram lines should be extended to the nearest railway station to improve network connectivity.  Alas, this still hasn't happened.  Although the Labor government has committed to a new outer circle rail line, which will connect all the radial suburban branch lines.  Predicatbly, the LNP opposition doesn't want it.

World's biggest offshore wind coy comes to Australia

From RenewEconomy

Ørsted, the world’s biggest offshore wind developer, has confirmed it plans to make major investments in Australia, with the initial focus on the country’s first offshore wind zone in Gippsland, Victoria.

The Danish company’s newly appointed head of Asia Pacific, Per Mejnert Kristensen, says the company has been monitoring developments in Australia for many years, and opportunities in offshore wind, as well as onshore wind, solar and “power to X” (green hydrogen), are getting very interesting.

“We feel that with our experience and track record, we will be able to play a strong role here in the renewable sector,” Kristensen told RenewEconomy in an interview on the weekly Energy Insiders podcast.

Kristensen says Ørsted’s initial focus is on gigawatt scale projects in the Gippsland offshore wind zone in Victoria, which is likely to be officially declared shortly, allowing for the first detailed feasibility studies to be conducted.

The company is also about to open its first permanent Australian office in Melbourne.

“We are talking to a number of different stakeholders and partners here,” Kristensen says. “At this point in time, I’m not able to say anything specifically regarding that. We really feel that now we are kicking off our efforts in Australia.”

Major players converging on Victoria offshore wind

Ørsted, whose interest in Australian offshore wind was first reported by RenewEconomy earlier this year, joins a host of major international energy players jockeying for position in the nascent Australian offshore wind industry.

These include Iberdrola, Shell, Equinor, Macquarie Group’s Corio, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Vena Energy, plus a host of smaller players such as OceanEx, Flotation Energy, Bluefloat, and more.

There are now more than 20 declared projects representing more than 50GW of proposed capacity. See RenewEconomy’s Offshore Wind Farm Map of Australia

All eyes are on Victoria, which has set a target of 2GW of offshore wind in production by 2032, 4GW by 2035, and 9GW by 2040. Its newly announced 95 per cent renewables target for 2035 counts heavily on offshore wind.

But the federal government has also flagged five initial offshore wind zones, mostly grouped around Victoria and NSW, and also likely to expand to Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.

Gippsland is already the focus of at least five competing projects, including the 2.2GW Star of the South project, regarded as the most advanced in the country, and the most recently announced 2GW Blue Marlin project, unveiled by Singapore-based Vena this week.

Joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners

Interestingly, Ørsted just this week announced a major joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, the majority owner of the Star of the South project, to develop 5.2GW of offshore wind capacity in Danish waters.

Ørsted already has 13GW of offshore wind capacity under operation, and a stated goal to expand this to 30GW by the end of the decade.

Kristensen says the industry – and consumers – are suffering from rising costs “everywhere in the world”, particularly for steel prices, but also for interest rates.

“It is putting some of both pressure on cost. I think that would be fair to say. And I think that’s acknowledged by everyone. Now, this, of course, cannot cannot keep going like this. So we expect it to be a temporary thing with the extreme levels that we’ve seen in many parts of the world now.

“It is … putting pressure on the companies and the capital, we have to … have a very robust balance sheet. We have strong support from our investors. And we have a very good credit ratings.

“So I think (Ørsted) remains in the strongest position to keep developing our offshore wind ambitions. And we are indeed on track to to achieve this 30 gigawatt into 2030.

“It would be fantastic if we could get the first offshore wind farms going, for example, here in Victoria, just before the turn of 2030.

Ørsted has 30GW offshore wind target for 2030

“We know that this would require the frameworks to be in place rather quickly. But we also have the sense that this is what the Commonwealth Government and the Victorian state government are working very hard on.

“So I would say that, that it will be be tight, but I think it’s still it is possible with the right framework. And indeed, for me personally and for (Ørsted), we would indeed love Australia to be part of this 30 gigawatts.”

Ørsted recently set a 100 per cent renewables target for all its 22,000 suppliers by 2025, and Kristensen says the company is hopefully of sourcing Australian content – where it makes sense – when it does begin projects in coming years.

Ørsted built the world’s first offshore wind farm in 1991 and now lays claims to a 30 per cent share in the global industry.

Power-to-X technology

Kristensen also says the company is interested in onshore wind and solar projects in Australia, as well as the “Power-to-X” technology that is included in its newly announced deal with CIP in Denmark.

Power-to-X describes the production of green hydrogen or green fuels to help power heavy industry and heavy transport. “We are a long term player,” Kristensen said.

Ørsted has been cited as a potential bidder for CWP Renewables, which has a gigawatt scale portfolio of existing and pipeline projects in wind, solar and storage. Ørsted declined to comment on specific opportunities.

The proposed wind farms off Victoria's Gippsland coast will together provide at least 80% of Victoria's electricity, and 20% of the nation's.  Ignoring rooftop and utility scale solar, they will add enough renewable capacity to take the nation's renewable energy output to nearly 60% of the total o ver the next 10 years.

Victoria reaches record 84% wind & solar

 From RenewEconomy

The state of Victoria has established a new record share of renewables, reaching a peak of 83.8 per cent of state demand in the early afternoon on Easter Sunday, April 17.

According to data analyst Geoff Eldridge, from the data collection site NEMLog, the new record was established at 1.10pm (AEST) with wind the biggest contributor, followed by rooftop solar and large scale solar. There was a negligible amount of hydro generation at the time.

It beats the previous record of 79.6% reached on October 27 last year, and came as South Australia set a new record for that state’s grid of 136.6 per cent instantaneous renewables earlier in the day.

Spring and autumn are usually the seasons when renewables records are set, due to moderate demand with the absence of air conditioning, and records are often established on weekends or public holidays.

Another data source, OpenNem, put the share of renewables at 1.10pm at an even higher number of 85.3 per cent. It was not immediately clear the cause of the difference. 

The share of wind and solar might have been higher had some facilities not decided to dial down their output, or cease generation entirely, as a result of negative prices.

Had they not done so, the share of wind and solar would have peaked at 99.8 per cent around an hour earlier.Over the past 12 months, Victoria has averaged a 34.8 per cent contribution from renewables, although only just over 31 per cent in the past 30 days.

New wind farms off the Victorian coast will provide at least 20% of Victoria's electricity.  So over the next couple of years, renewable production will routinely exceed 100% of Victoria's demand, while the annual average for renewables will head towards 60%.

Stockyard Hill wind project

Victoria's game-changing offshore wind target

 From RenewEconomy

Victoria has announced an ambitious new plan to accelerate the rollout of offshore wind energy generation projects in the state, setting rolling targets of 2GW installed by 2030, 4GW by 2035, and 9GW by 2040.

In a State of the State speech at a CEDA luncheon in Melbourne on Friday, Victoria’s Labor Premier Daniel Andrews announced the “new and even more ambitious” renewable energy goals for the state, which he said his government planned to “meet and exceed.”

In a release detailing the new targets, the state government said the first power from offshore wind was expected as soon as 2028 following a competitive process.

“For the first time anywhere in Australia, we will set a minimum target for offshore wind power generation,” Andrews said.

“By 2032, Victoria will reach a massive 2GW of offshore wind energy production, that’s the equivalent of 20% of Victoria’s energy needs today, [and] set a target of 4GW by 2035 and, finally, 9GW by 2040 – targets, ladies and gentlemen, that we will meet and we will exceed.”

Victoria, which has legislated a target for a 50% renewable energy powered electricity grid by 2030, was the first state in Australia to have an offshore wind project proposed off its coast – albeit in federal waters.

That project, the 2.2GW Star of the South, is proposed for waters off the south coast of Gippsland in Victoria, and remains on track to be the first offshore wind farm in Australia.

In 2021, the project entered into a $43.1 million partnership with the Victorian government designed to accelerate its development, and establish the beginnings of a local Victorian offshore wind industry.

It’s overall progress has been delayed, however, by the wait for federal legislation – finally passed in November of last year – enabling offshore electricity projects to be built and operated in Australia; the Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Bill 2021.

The new, rolling targets from Victoria are clearly an effort by the state to make up for that lost ground, in an area that will be crucial to its shift to renewables beyond 50 per cent.

“[This] is the clearest and best signal that we can send to investors – to those who will build and operate and those who want to invest in this resource,” Andrews said on Friday.

“It’s more than a signal, though, it’s a message from a government with a proven track record of getting things done. And a government not prepared to simply say, well that’s a matter for the Feds, who we know will do precious little about it.”

Victoria has plenty to gain from fast-tracking investment in offshore wind. Studies have shown the state has the potential to support 13GW of capacity from coastal regions by 2050 – five times the state’s current renewable energy generation.

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest Integrated System Plan – its planning blueprint – now adopts as its central scenario a “step change” model that assumes all of Victoria’s brown coal generators will cease operations by around 2032.

Biggest windfarm in Southern Hemisphere

 From The Age

Construction on the biggest wind farm in the southern hemisphere will start in Victoria next year after the state’s Planning Minister gave the final tick of approval to the $2 billion facility.

It will have almost twice as many turbines and be roughly double the megawatt capacity of the wind farm at Coopers Gap in Queensland, which is presently the biggest in Australia.

It comes after years of legal challenges by local farmers and wrangling over the size of the wind farm, where 230-metre turbines – almost as tall as Melbourne’s Rialto Towers – will produce enough power for more than 765,000 homes per year, according to the project’s operators.

The site at Rokewood, 130 kilometres west of Melbourne, will cover 167 square kilometres.

Planning Minister Richard Wynne last week quietly approved WestWind Energy’s final proposal for the Golden Plains Wind Farm. The operator says it will start building in the middle of next year.

Under the plan, WestWind will give annual payments to neighbours, starting at $1000 per turbine to those who live within two kilometres of them. “We appreciate that all major infrastructure projects have some impacts to the communities in which they are constructed,” a spokeswoman said. “We are grateful to the local community who have worked with us over the past five years while the Golden Plains Wind Farm has been in development, irrespective of their personal opinion of the project.”

The Andrews government has set a target of halving emissions from 2005 levels by the end of 2030, resulting in significant investment in renewable energy.

Last week the Premier pledged $40 million towards proposals for three offshore wind farms near the Gippsland coast. The largest project, Star of the South, would power about 1.8 million homes if it comes to fruition.

Golden Plains Shire welcomed the decision on the wind farm at Rokewood, which mayor Gavin Gamble said would create 768 jobs in a town with a population of 300.

“Council is a keen supporter of renewable energy and the Golden Plains Wind Farm will generate sustainable green electricity for more than 765,000 homes and save up to 4.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually,” he said. “The proponents of the wind farm have engaged with the Rokewood community throughout the development of this project, including the protection of farmland and sustainable farming, as well as improvements to local roads.”

GRAPHIC: MATT DAVIDSON
Melbourne Central is 57 stories high.

Victorian cottage in Rokewood, Vic.

Hawaiian Electric to pay customers to install batteries

 

From Energy Storage News

Hawaiian Electric has launched a new programme that will pay customers to add battery storage to an existing or new rooftop solar system.

The ‘Battery Bonus’ scheme is a one-time cash incentive paid to residential and commercial customers on the island of O‘ahu, which Hawaiian Electric hopes will move the state toward its goal of 100% clean energy by 2045.

Capped by the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) at a total 50MW supplied from storage among all participants, the programme has three levels of incentive.

The first is US$850/kW for those accepted for the first 15MW. Hawaiian Electric will confirm the yield by checking battery data.

Second, US$750/kW for those accepted for the next 15MW and, third, US$500/kW for those accepted for the last 20MW.

“The Public Utilities Commission sees the value that solar and batteries can bring to our grid, and have unveiled a new program to accelerate adoption here in Hawaii,” said Robert Harris, Sunrun’s director of public policy for Hawaii.

Applications will be accepted until June 20, 2023, or until the cap is reached, with customers required to use a contractor. Taxable payments will be made to the solar-plus-storage system owner.

Customers who take part must use or export stored electricity at the contracted amount on a two-hour schedule specified by Hawaiian Electric between 6pm-8pm every day (including weekends and holidays) until December 31, 2023.

After this, they will be given the option to move onto the scheme’s next phase – a ten-year programme to be defined by the PUC.

“The Hawaii Commission is encouraging customers to install batteries so as to keep their own lights on, as well as prevent system-wide blackouts,” said Harris. “This is just one more instance proving that clean, distributed energy resources can and should replace fossil fuel power across the United States.”

Last year, Hawaiian Electric submitted eight contracts representing nearly 300MW of solar energy generation and about 2,000MWh of energy storage to be built on the islands of O'ahu and Maui.

This report isn't completely clear.   Battery storage is measured in kWh (kilowatt-hours).  So a battery with, say, a 10 kWh capacity could deliver 1 kW of output over 10 hours or 10 kW over one hour or any combination in between.  (Though in practice, maximum output over a short period is bad for the battery.)  According to this report, it looks as if users will be paid for the power output during the two-hour window in the evening, which makes more sense.  Assuming 5 kW of output over 2 hours, the subsidy would be 5*$850 = $4250, or about half the cost of 14 kWh Tesla Powerwall.   That's substantial―a 14 kWh Tesla Powerwall battery cost roughly $8500 installed, so a 50% subsidy.  Nice.  But it works to offset the evening demand peak, so presumably makes sense for the utility too.

The State of Victoria has a similar battery rebate program, with the rebate last fiscal year of A$4174 (± US$3000) falling this FY to A$3500 (± US$2500).  However, Victoria's rebate is untaxed. 

A new offshore wind farm in Gippsland

 Gippsland is an area of Victoria east of the state capital Melbourne.  It is the site of several coal-burning power stations which burn the most polluting form of coal, brown coal (lignite).  But it has several advantages for renewables:

• Because of the coal power stations, there is an existing grid running through to where most demand is, i.e., the metropolis of greater Melbourne.
• The wind in Gippsland tends to be strong and reliable, and also has a low correlation with the wind in Eastern Victoria/South Australia.  Together, these two wind regions can produce less variable output.
• Even though it's not as sunny as the NW of the state and Western NSW, with solar panels here producing on average 11% less than in the north-west, that's still respectable, and wind and solar in this region have a small negative correlation, so that the output sent through to Melbourne is more stable, meaning that less output would have to be curtailed to prevent overloading the grid.

I have already talked about the Star of the South wind farm, which will provide 18% of Victoria's and 5% of the nation's electricity.

This report about a new wind farm is from Peter Gardner

A Scottish offshore wind company Flotation Energy has a project on the drawing board for Gippsland. It joins the Star of the South as the second major offshore project for the region. The company website notes that this “is a 1,500MW energy transition project. It will be located in the Bass Strait, off the Ninety Mile Beach coastline. The electricity will be exported to the Latrobe Valley, where there is a strong electricity grid, due to the presence of ageing coal power stations.”

Flotation Energy is a major offshore wind developer in the UK working on 9 projects around the globe promoting the advantages of offshore wind, and in particular floating offshore turbines. They note that “Floating offshore wind is a simple concept with a big future. It means that you can take wind turbines into deeper waters, where the winds are stronger and more reliable. Further offshore, the wind turbines have less environmental and visual impact. This means that floating wind is popular with politicians and local communities. It has a very big role to play if governments are to achieve their net zero targets. The global potential for floating wind is enormous.”

Their website emphasizes the need for climate action. “The threat of climate change is the biggest challenge facing our planet. Urgent action is required, from governments and business as well as from local communities and individuals. We have seen the growing extremes of climate change having a huge impact, with lives being lost and many communities threatened by worsening storms and floods, heat waves and droughts. The poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable often suffer the most. Now is the time for bold action.”

The company predicts the rapid expansion of offshore wind. “This rapid expansion has been driven by the increasing need for de-carbonisation to tackle climate change and achieve net zero targets. Energy security, job creation and economic growth potential are also major considerations. The cost of offshore wind has fallen dramatically, aided by stable energy policy, technology innovation including larger turbines, economies of scale and less expensive finance.”

With Star of the South they could replace two of the remaining Latrobe Valley coal fired generators. The ocean they would occupy would appears to be further east that the Star of the South and perhaps further offshore in deeper water. Both the construction phase and ongoing maintenance will be a huge boon to local economies.

Unfortunately neither our local members (State and Federal) or the media have little to say on these projects (see blog on delays here). The delay on these projects appears deliberate and due to the influence of the fossil fuel industry. Climate action now requires offshore wind enabling legislation in Federal parliament and for all governments to put these projects into fast forward mode.

Floating wind turbine (Flotation Energy)

A tale of two States

Victoria, run by Labor (leftish) and NSW, run by the 'Liberal' Party (right-wing).  

Victoria has been excoriated by the Murdoch  media as run by swivel-eyed leftist loons, NSW has been held up by the same media as running 'gold-standard' covid measures.  The Premier of NSW, known to both her friends as Saint Gladys, postponed introducing a snap lockdown to prevent a wave of covid infections, and has just removed the lockdown despite the number of cases still rising, while Victoria, under 'Dictator Dan', moved swiftly to impose a two weeks lockdown to break the infection transmission chain.  The results have been obvious:

Source: @Tofoafelix

Victoria backs clean energy

 

Wind farm at Codrington, SW Victoria

While Australia's federal government is backing a "gas-led" recovery, despite gas's much higher costs than renewables, State governments are for the most part backing renewables, including "Liberal" (=right-wing) ones.  Victoria's government is Labor.

From Melbourne's The Age newspaper.

Clean energy projects will receive a Victorian government funding boost in the hope of driving the state's battered economy out of the coronavirus downturn and avoiding a slump in wind and solar investment.

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio is preparing to brief 300 investors on Wednesday about the launch of a formal process to test interest in building 600 megawatts of renewable energy capacity statewide, which she said would drive down prices and create new jobs at a critical time.

It comes amid calls around the world for "green recoveries" – economic rescue packages targeting investments in clean energy that would tackle global warming as well as stimulate growth. Under the Victorian program, the government would award contracts to buy power from project developers at a fixed price, giving them the revenue certainty to secure debt and proceed with projects in a volatile market.

"It's a shot in the arm for the industry," said Kane Thornton of the Clean Energy Council, a group representing renewable energy firms.

"These sorts of auctions provide a lot of confidence and ultimately bring forward projects that wouldn't otherwise get off the ground because of uncertainty around the energy market."

The government tender process is the second under the Victorian Renewable Energy Target, which aims to lift renewable energy's share of the state's grid to 40 per cent by 2025.

The first tender, launched in 2017, had a target of 650 megawatts but was swamped by bidders and ended up delivering six wind and solar projects totalling 927 megawatts of renewable energy, the government said.

"We know Victorians are doing it tough and affordable reliable power is more important than ever," Ms D'Ambrosio said. "This will help to deliver that as well as creating jobs and stimulating the economy."

This is a clever way to expand fixed investment, because it involves no capital spending by the government.  However, the NW of the state is where solar resources are best, and stronger high-voltage grid connections are required to allow solar farms to expand.  This might well involve State government expenditure.

Coal-fired pollution killing 800 a year in Oz

 From The Brisbane Times

Air pollution from Australia’s ageing coal-fired power stations kills around 800 people each year and spreads hundreds of kilometres from regional plants into major cities, new research finds.

This national death toll is twice as high as the number of smoke inhalation deaths in the recent catastrophic bushfire season, and eight times greater than the average annual casualties from all natural disasters, according to a new report from Greenpeace Australia.

This is the first time the national health impacts of burning coal for electricity have been scientifically assessed, its authors say.

Some of these symptoms come from cross-state pollution, with about 20 percent of cases occurring in states and territories that are not home to the power station that is the source of the emissions.

The Greenpeace study modelled how much pollution from coal power stations could be expected in certain areas, based on observed meteorological conditions, reported pollutant emissions and electricity generation.

Existing health studies were then used to calculate how many additional deaths occur with this increased pollution. For mortality, this included deaths due to heart disease, cardiopulmonary disease, lung cancer, lower respiratory infections and stroke.

Report co-author Professor Hilary Bambrick, an environmental epidemiologist, said power plant air pollution had caused Australians to die and suffer from preventable diseases for decades: "Governments must come up with a plan to replace our ageing and unreliable coal burning power stations with clean energy solutions as quickly as possible."

New research recently published in the Medical Journal of Australia found unborn babies whose mothers were exposed to smoke from the Hazelwood coal mine fire are at greater risk of respiratory infections in early childhood, despite not directly inhaling the pollution.

Naturally, electricity generators have pooh-poohed this conclusion.  I live near (30 kms away) from one of Victoria's brown-coal power stations and I have to tell you when the wind is from the power station, the pollution is indescribable.  The estimate of 800 deaths compares with 1,145 deaths on the road in 2018.

East coast pollution with an easterly wind

Victorian pollution with a westerly wind

New big battery 60% cheaper

Since you're prolly sick of seeing pictures of batteries and wind turbines,
here's an image of Geelong's waterfront.

From PV Magazine

The Australian city of Geelong, Victoria, has unveiled plans for a AUD 300 million ($185.5 million) battery system. French renewables developer Neoen submitted the application for a planning permit for the project, which has dubbed [it] the “Victorian big battery.” 

The 600 MW battery storage facility will provide fast frequency response services to the National Electricity Market (NEM) and serve as reserve to augment power supplies in Victoria, while also providing improved grid reliability, the company said in its application.

“Such energy storage facilities can reduce spot price volatility and protect the grid from network disturbances thus improving reliability and potentially reducing power costs,” the company added.

As the developer of the world’s largest operating battery – the 100MW/129MWh Tesla big battery in South Australia, known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve – Neoen has enjoyed a significant surge in revenues. Frequency control ancillary services (FCAS) provided by the Tesla Big Battery, which is now set for a 50% expansion, contributed most of the 56% jump in revenue banked by Neoen in the final quarter of last year.

In its first year of operation, the Tesla Big Battery saved almost AUD 40 million in grid-stabilization costs. But perhaps the project’s most significant contribution is that it has raised the profile of energy storage and has demonstrated its unique capabilities.  

[Read more here]

The first "big battery" in South Australia—built less than three years ago cost at least US$50 million for 129 MWh of storage.  This one will cost US$185 million for 400 Tesla Megapacks, each of which can store up to 3 MWh of power.  At 3 MWh each, that is nearly 10 times as much storage for 3.7 times the price.  To put it another way, the first big battery cost (at least) $387K per MWh, the new one will cost $154K/MWh, or 60% less.  A 60% cost decline in less than three years!  And it seems very likely that this decline will be matched over the next three years. This should send shivers up the spine of every coal executive. 

Victoria's average electricity demand is roughly 5000 MW.  So this battery could provide for 12% of demand for two hours.  This is phenomenal.  In another 3 years, we'll be able to add an even bigger big battery, allowing us to go to 90% renewables in Victoria.  The naysayers have been adamant that storage will be too expensive for us to use it to "firm" variable renewable supply.  They have been wrong.

Renewables output grows fast in Oz

Generation from renewables now exceeds generation from brown coal (lignite).  This is good news—lignite is the most polluting fossil fuel relative to the electricity it generates.  In all charts, the dark yellow/tan represents rooftop solar.  Utility-scale solar has only started to pick up in recent years.

 Renewables output substantially exceeds output from gas power stations.  The argument from opponents of renewables is that we'll need lots of gas backup to allow for the variability of wind and solar output.  Doesn't seem to be the case, though, does it?

Black coal remains strong.  This is partly because NSW, Oz's most populous state, has been run by conservatives, who have a demented coal fetish, whereas Victoria (which is powered by brown coal) has been rapidly rolling out renewables. 

The charts come from Dylan McConnell.