Inside an oven: sweltering heat in SE Asia

From The Guardian

Extreme heat has gripped much of south and south-east Asia over recent weeks, killing dozens of people, forcing millions of students to miss school and destroying crops.

Both the Philippines and Bangladesh shut schools due to the unbearable heat last month, while governments across the region have issued health warnings. In Thailand, at least 30 people have died from heatstroke since the start of the year.


The extreme weather has seen durian fruit burst on trees in Thailand, destroyed rice crops and caused eggs to shrink, according to local media. The heat has even been cited as a factor that led to an ammunition blast in Cambodia that killed 20 soldiers at an army base last weekend.

Records have been broken across the region. Bangladesh experienced its hottest April ever recorded, with daily maximum temperatures between 2C and 8C hotter than the 33.2C average daily high for the month. In Myanmar, 48.2C was reached in the town of Chauk, in central Magway region – the hottest April temperature since records began.

In Vietnam, 102 weather stations reported record highs in April. Northern and central areas of the country experienced temperatures up to 4C higher than the same period last year, while seven stations recorded temperatures above 43C on Tuesday last week. Kolkata, in India, also reached 43C, the city’s hottest April day since 1954.

Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said: “The frequency, intensity, duration and the area covered by these heatwaves are increasing over time. We are on a rollercoaster ride in terms of temperature, which is not going to come down any time soon. It’s going to be worse, which means we need to be prepared.”

Koll added that there was a need for governments to adapt – by developing policies to decide, for example, when schools should be shut or how to protect workers.

KC Libre, 15, is a student at Manuel Roxas high school in Manila, but she is currently studying at home after the school suspended in-person classes last week. “This is the first time that our classes have been suspended because of the hot weather,” she said. “We have 47 students in our class. Even with electric fans, it’s still hot, and usually there are only two electric fans switched on because ceiling fans in some of the rooms are broken.

“I feel irritated and can’t focus when it’s hot. The rooms are on the fourth floor, and so especially when I go up and down [the stairs], it’s really difficult … I won’t have even started writing yet but I’m already sweating.

“Even in our home it’s so hot. We don’t have aircon because we are not well-off. I do my school work at night because it’s less hot. In the morning, it’s as if extreme heat is blowing into you.

“The air coming from the electric fans is so hot … The heat inside of the oven … that’s what it feels like.”

Sae Klomkamnerd, 63, a farmer in Phichit province in Thailand, was forced to sell his 5,200 ducks as the extreme heat stopped them from laying eggs. “During the day, we would draw more groundwater to fill our pond, so the ducks can go in the water to cool down,” he said.

“But it’s still too hot; after 9 or 10 in the morning, the water becomes hot and they don’t want to get in any more. They just go in the shade and hide under the trees.

“In normal weather, 80-90% of the young ducks will lay eggs, but right now, when it’s so hot, it’s down to 60% or even down to 50%. In the case of the older ducks, the number of eggs is even down to 30%.”

He said the eggs the ducks did manage to lay were smaller than usual, meaning each tray of eggs weighed less and therefore fetched a lower price when sold. “I could only get 75 baht [£1.60] for those trays; in a good year, we could sell them for 100-105 baht per tray. This year is really awful, it’s really hard.”

Lay Samrach, 44, a construction worker in Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s capital, said: “I have never experienced this kind of heat. Other years were hot but this year it’s even hotter. When it’s too hot I can’t breathe.”

“Last year, we only took one break in the afternoon, but now we have up to three breaks in the afternoon because of the heat. I have to leave all my equipment in the shade. If I don’t do so it will break down my materials. Last year, I could leave my shovel out, but this year I can’t leave it out because I can’t use it if it’s so hot.”

Of course, the wealthy in these countries live in air-conditioned homes, drive in air-conditioned cars to air-conditioned shopping centres or air-conditioned offices.  They don't care about the lethal temperatures that ordinary people must face.  And they're also the people who are financing the new coal power stations that these countries are all still building, causing CO2 emissions from all the countries to just keep on rising.

Emissions in SE Asia:

Source: Our World in Data

And of course, the giant emitter in the region, India, which is however still outdone by the rest of Asia:

When I've previously pointed out how large and how fast India's emissions have been and are rising, I've been told off.  India, these people point out, is not responsible for the historic emissions produced by developed countries, who now have comfortable lifestyles, whereas Indians do not.  Which is true.  But irrelevant.  The climate does not care about history--all that matters is that now the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising: and Asia, including India, China and the rest of Asia, is now the key contributor.  Emissions in developed countries (for which the OECD is a good proxy) have been falling since 2007, though admittedly by a measly 1.2% per annum compound:

Source: Our World in Data

And in any case, if all new electricity generation came from renewables sources, emissions in these countries would grow much more slowly.   These countries are all sunbelt countries, they could all, for example, get their electricity in daytime from solar, and at night from coal, more than halving their emissions from electricity.  Building new solar farms instead of new coal power stations would be cheaper than new coal power stations.  

Economic importance of Asia keeps on rising

 Industrial production of Asia continues to grow faster than the industrial production of the world.  Different countries have led the way over the years: Japan, then SE Asia, then China.  But on the whole (there are one or two exceptions, these days including Japan) most economies in this region have higher growth rates than Europe or America.  

This is to be expected:  as economies move from undeveloped to developed, trend growth rates fall, eventually reaching the long-term limits set by technological advance and population growth.  So Japan, which grew by 10-15% a year in the 1950s, now manages just 1-2% a year.  Chinese trend growth has already started to slow, and over the next decade, Asian growth as a whole will continue to trend lower.  

As the chart is plotted on a log scale, you can see how the relative growth rate is slowing as the slope of the line diminishes.

Note the impact of the 1998/99 Asian crisis.  

The data shown are from my calculations.

Electric 2- & 3-wheelers disrupting oil

From Teslarati:

The world’s oil companies are taking a hit due to electric modes of transportation and their increasing popularity in today’s world. Studies from BloombergNEF indicated that EVs are taking around one million barrels of oil consumption away from the world. Although this figure is only 1% of the 100 million barrels per day consumption rate from 2019, it is still something.

It must be highlighted that most of the impact of oil consumption is coming from something other than electric cars. In fact, two and three-wheeled vehicles powered by electric batteries are affecting commercial oil use on a larger scale more than any different mode of sustainable transportation currently.

Bloomberg’s Nathaniel Bullard stated that electric bikes, trikes, and scooters are disrupting global oil consumption on a massive scale. In 2020, this category of transportation has accounted for around 60% of avoided oil consumption. According to further estimates from BloombergNEF, it will continue to lead in oil consumption until 2030.

Interestingly enough, scooters and other small-scale forms of transportation are displacing more oil and contributing to positive environmental awareness on a larger scale than luxury electric cars.

In previous analyses, BNEF highlighted that electric 2- and 3-wheelers already have sticker prices close to or equal to their petrol equivalents.  This is because they are much lighter than cars, and so new much smaller batteries than EVs.  Also they need less range.  They aren't designed for long-distance travel.  Like the Microlino in Europe.

Many of these 2- and 3-wheelers are produced and sold in Asia.  India is the world's largest producer and exporter of 3-wheelers.  I got these images from Walk Through India.

Bajaj Auto, India (and the world's) largest manufacturer of 3-wheelers

Piaggio Ape (= bee).  Italian name but Indian manufacturer.

Emissions flat in 2019

From the IEA:

Global energy-related CO2 emissions flattened in 2019 at around 33 gigatonnes (Gt), following two years of increases. This resulted mainly from a sharp decline in CO2 emissions from the power sector in advanced economies, thanks to the expanding role of renewable sources (mainly wind and solar PV), fuel switching from coal to natural gas, and higher nuclear power output.

Global CO2 emissions from coal use declined by almost 200 million tonnes (Mt), or 1.3%, from 2018 levels, offsetting increases in emissions from oil and natural gas. Advanced economies saw their emissions decline by over 370 Mt (or 3.2%), with the power sector responsible for 85% of the drop. Milder weather in many large economies compared with 2018 had an important effect on the trends, reducing emissions by around 150 Mt. Weaker global economic growth also played a role, moderating the increase in emissions in major emerging economies such as India.

Emissions trends for 2019 suggest clean energy transitions are underway, led by the power sector. Global power sector emissions declined by some 170 Mt, or 1.2%, with the biggest falls taking place in advanced economies where CO2 emissions are now at levels not seen since the late 1980s (when electricity demand was one-third lower).

Economic growth in advanced economies averaged 1.7% in 2019, but total energy-related CO2 emissions fell by 3.2%. The power sector led the decline and now accounts for 36% of energy-related emissions across advanced economies, down from a high of 42% in 2012. The average CO2 emissions intensity of electricity generation declined by nearly 6.5% in 2019, a rate three times faster than the average over the past decade. In absolute terms, an average emissions intensity of 340 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour in 2019 is lower than all but the most efficient gas-fired power plants.

Generation from coal-fired plants in advanced economies declined by nearly 15% as a result of continued growth of renewables, coal-to-gas fuel switching, a rise in nuclear power and weaker electricity demand. The growth of renewables in electricity generation in advanced economies delivered 130 Mt of CO2 emissions savings in 2019. Wind accounted for the biggest share of the increase, with output expanding 12% from 2018 levels. Solar PV saw the fastest growth amongst renewable sources, helping to push renewables’ share of total electricity generation close to 28%. Coal-to-gas fuel switching for power generation avoided 100 Mt of CO2 in advanced economies and was particularly strong in the United States due to record low natural gas prices. Higher nuclear power generation in advanced economies, particularly in Japan and Korea, avoided over 50 Mt of CO2.

The United States saw the largest decline in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019 on a country basis – a fall of 140 Mt, or 2.9%, to 4.8 Gt. US emissions are now down almost 1 Gt from their peak in the year 2000, the largest absolute decline by any country over that period. A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019. Coal-fired power plants faced even stronger competition from natural gas-fired generation, with benchmark gas prices an average of 45% lower than 2018 levels. As a result, gas increased its share in electricity generation to a record high of 37%. Overall electricity demand declined because demand for air-conditioning and heating was lower as a result of milder summer and winter weather.

Energy-related CO2 emissions in the European Union, including the United Kingdom, dropped by 160 Mt, or 5%, to reach 2.9 Gt. The power sector drove the trend, with a decline of 120 Mt of CO2, or 12%, resulting from increasing renewables and switching from coal to gas. Output from the European Union’s coal-fired power plants dropped by more than 25% in 2019, while gas-fired generation increased by close to 15% to overtake coal for the first time.

Germany spearheaded the decline in emissions in the European Union. Its emissions fell by 8% to 620 Mt of CO2, a level not seen since the 1950s, when the German economy was around 10 times smaller. The country’s coal-fired power fleet saw a drop in output of more than 25% year on year as electricity demand declined and generation from renewables, especially wind (+11%), increased. With a share of over 40%, renewables for the very first time generated more electricity in 2019 than Germany’s coal-fired power stations.

The United Kingdom continued its strong progress with decarbonisation as output from coal-fired power plants fell to only 2% of total electricity generation. Rapid expansion of output from offshore wind, as additional projects came online in the North Sea, was a driving factor behind this decline. Renewables provided about 40% of electricity supply in the United Kingdom, with gas supplying a similar amount. The share of renewables became even higher in the later part of the year, with wind, solar PV and other sources generating more electricity than all fossil fuels combined during the third quarter.

Emissions outside advanced economies grew by close to 400 Mt in 2019, with almost 80% of the increase coming from Asia. In this region, coal demand continued to expand, accounting for over 50% of energy use, and is responsible for around 10 Gt of emissions. In China, emissions rose but were tempered by slower economic growth and higher output from low-carbon sources of electricity. Renewables continued to expand in China, and 2019 was also the first full year of operation for seven large-scale nuclear reactors in the country.

Emissions growth in India was moderate in 2019, with CO2 emissions from the power sector declining slightly as electricity demand was broadly stable and strong renewables growth prompted coal-fired electricity generation to fall for the first time since 1973. Continued growth in fossil-fuel demand in other sectors of the Indian economy, notably transport, offset the decline in the power sector. Emissions grew strongly in Southeast Asia, lifted by robust coal demand.

It's clear that the energy transition in developed countries has started.   The growth in renewable generation is now enough to cut emissions from electricity.  If, for example, renewables make up 40% of generation, a 10% rise in renewables output will more than offset the rise in electricity demand.  And this is where most developed countries now sit.  Over the next few years, the rise in sales of cars with an electric engine will start eating into emissions from transport.  So emissions in developed countries should start to fall by respectable amounts, though still not fast enough.

The problem is China and SE Asia.  And here, the issue is diplomatic as much as economic.  Yes, the costs of renewables are falling, to the extent that renewables are as cheap as or cheaper than coal.  But costs are also affected by things like getting permits, policy uncertainty (which raises loan costs and required rates of return) and government support for fossil fuels, especially via subsidies.  It is critical that no more coal power stations be built, yet in SE Asia and China they still are.  This has to stop.  Somehow these countries must be persuaded to stop building coal power stations.  Because it's not enough for emissions to stabilise to stop global temperatures from rising.  They must fall to zero, as soon as possible.

The last redoubt of coal

Europe's been dumping coal.  And the US has.  India is building less new coal generation capacity than it's shuttering.  Even in China, once the great hope of coal miners, only  5 MW of new coal generation was given permits in 2018.  Japan is. Even Pakistan is turning away from coal. But there are still new coal power stations being planned and constructed in SE Asia—Vietnam and Indonesia being among the worst offenders. 

Some good news.

First, OCBC (Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, and no, it's not a Chinese State-owned bank), SE Asia's second largest lender, has said it will stop all new lending for coal power stations.

From Bloomberg:

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. said two Vietnamese coal-fired power plants will be the last it finances as it increases funding for renewable projects.

“We won’t do any new coal-fired power generation plants in any countries, except for the power projects that we are already in, or we have committed to,” Chief Executive Officer Samuel Tsien said in an interview at its Singapore headquarters Monday. “We hope that by doing this, we are encouraging the governments to do facilitating, arrangements for the countries to move from coal to renewable.”

At least 100 major lenders have put restrictions in the past five years on mines that produce coal and power plants that burn it, according to a February report from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. Their decisions reflect the rising recognition of coal’s role in climate change, and the potential for the fuel and facilities that rely on it to become obsolete before investments in them are paid off.

OCBC can’t backtrack from its earlier commitment to two projects in Vietnam, said Tsien, who declined to identify the developments. OCBC was among lenders for the 1.2 gigawatt Nghi Son 2 power station in Vietnam, the Straits Times reported in April last year. The lender also co-funds the Van Phong 1 project, according to Market Forces, a climate advocacy group.

The bank, which decided on the financing strategy this quarter, hasn’t engaged in discussions on coal-fired power plants over the last two years, according to Tsien.

Meanwhile, OCBC is stepping up efforts to finance renewable energy projects, an area the bank sees as a profitable business, Tsien said. It’s currently funding more than 20 solar farms in Malaysia, as well as wind projects in Australia and Taiwan.

Falling costs for renewable energy mean that building new solar plants may become cheaper than continuing to operate existing coal projects by 2027 in Vietnam, 2028 in Indonesia and 2029 in the Philippines, according to an October study by Carbon Tracker, a London-based non-profit think tank funded by several groups and charities, including Bloomberg Philanthropies. Renewable generation capacity will rise to about 100 gigawatts in Southeast Asia in 20 years from 8 gigawatts currently, consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd said in October.

Note this:

Falling costs for renewable energy mean that building new solar plants may become cheaper than continuing to operate existing coal projects by 2027 in Vietnam, 2028 in Indonesia and 2029 in the Philippines

This means that any coal power station built now (remember, they take 5 to 7 years to construct) will be immediately uneconomic even before they start operation.   And  existing coal power stations, which are built to last at least 30 years, will also be uneconomic.  That's  before depreciation and loan repayments.

Second, Vietnam has acknowledged that it has superb wind resources.

The sea from Quy Nhon to Ho Chi Minh City is considered one of the areas with the greatest potential for offshore wind power production in the world, with average wind speeds of 7-11 metres per second, experts have said.

The assessment was provided at a roundtable discussion on the development of offshore wind power in Vietnam with Dutch experience, held by the Dutch Embassy in Vietnam in collaboration with the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) in Hanoi on April 9.

Speaking at the event, Do Duc Quan, Deputy Head of the MoIT’s Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority, said that the demand for energy in Vietnam, especially electricity during 2020-2030, would be huge, as energy demand is increasing, while energy supply is and will be facing challenges, amidst traditional energy sources such as hydropower, coal, oil and gas that are gradually depleted and difficult to develop.

In such context, considering the exploitation of renewable energy sources, the Vietnamese government aims to produce 10.7% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. It targets that the total wind power capacity will reach about 1,000 MW by 2020 and 6,200 MW by 2030.

Currently, Vietnam’s total installed wind power capacity is about 190MW, with four wind farms onshore and near shore with a capacity of 6 MW to 100 MW each, while an additional of 263 MW of wind power is under construction and 412 MW is in the process of appraisal approval. Approximately 4,236 MW have been approved, raising the total registered wind power capacity to 10,729 MW.

With great advantages in wind power, especially the sea area from Quy Nhon city, in Binh Dinh province, to HCM City, offshore wind energy in Vietnam has yet been fully exploited. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is one of the top five countries in the world in research and development of offshore energy. The Dutch experience would be useful to Vietnam in selecting the optimal solution for the development of offshore wind power in the most appropriate way, Quan emphasised.

[Read more here]

Offshore wind is for obvious reasons more expensive than onshore wind.  But it compensates for this by being more regular and stronger.

Source: WindMinds

Vietnam also has reasonable solar resources.  According to the trusty NREL/PVWatts calculator, 5 kW of panels even in the north of the country (Hanoi) will produce 5679 kWh/year.  Further south, in Ho Chi Minh City, that same configuration would produce 7223 kWh/year.  For comparison, in Columbus, Ohio it would produce 6498 kWh/year, about the same as where I live, in Victoria.

Source: ResearchGate

SE Asia is made up of several fast-growing economies.  It's important that their high growth in electricity demand isn't filled by coal.  It looks as if renewables will help prevent that.  There is no question that coal is on its way out.  But avoiding 2 degrees C of warming requires that we stop building new coal power stations now, and then start closing them down as fast as we can.