Saturday, February 1, 2025

World interest cycle has clearly peaked

Despite some contra movements (for example, Brazil is raising its Central Bank rate), world interest rates have broadly peaked.   The ECB has just cut the discount rate for the Euro Area (the countries which have the Euro as their currency), which has been followed by other European countries.  The Fed Funds rate (the US's equivalent of the discount rate or bank rate) will prob'ly not be cut again in the near term because of the inflationary impact of Trump's tariff and immigration policies.  However, other countries will prob'ly cut their interest rates even faster to reduce the impact on growth of Trump's trade wars.

In the chart shows the GDP-weighted average discount rate for 83% of the world.  The other shows the unweighted median interest rate, including many additional countries in the analysis (e.g, Angola, Kenya, Ukraine, Argentina, and others.) 





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