EVs plus PHEVs now 28% of world new car sales

 From CleanTechnica

Plugin Vehicles Grew to a Record 1.84 Million Units in November!

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 32% in November 2024 compared to November 2023. There were 1.84 million registrations, which is a new record month, the 3rd in a row. EVs were up by 22% YoY (year over year), to a record 1.2 million units. Plugin hybrids did even better, jumping 55% YoY, its 6th record month in a row!

In the end, plugins represented 28% share of the overall auto market in November (18% BEV share alone).

Year to date, plugin electric vehicle market share was up to 21% (14% BEV), or 15.3 million units (of which 9.6 million were BEVs). Add in the 14% market share of plugless hybrids, and over one third of all car sales in the world have some kind of electrification!

Full electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 64% of plugin registrations in November, slightly above the year-to-date average (63%).

Taking a closer look, if we remove China from the November tally, plugin sales were up a more moderate 7% YoY, but instead of PHEVs pulling the numbers up, it’s pure electrics doing so. BEVs grew by 9% YoY outside of China, while plugin hybrids grew by just 2%.

So, when people say that “EV sales are falling” and “People don’t want EVs,” they are pushing a deceiving narrative, BUT …

It is true that, if we remove the Chinese market, and Chinese EV makers in general, from the picture, numbers are much more sluggish, especially on the PHEV side. So, maybe the reality is closer to this: while China is gaining scale in the EV game, the others are stalling. Most of the conquest/growth sales are going to Chinese EV makers, leaving legacy OEMs and Tesla behind.

Proof of this trend is the increasing share of EV sales happening in China. In November, that market represented over 70% of global sales.

The chart below is constructed from a variety of sources.  I have seasonally adjusted and smoothed the data.  The time series is plotted using a logarithmic scale, which shows a constant growth rate as a straight line.

My seasonal adjustment; smoothed using 13-term Henderson Curve.

Growth rates have slowed over the last year, in the US and Europe, but not in China.  European sales fell because Germany removed a sales incentive for EVs, and because of a protective import tax placed on imported EVs (Chinese EVs/PHEVs are the cheapest in the world.)  Import tariffs in the US had a similar effect.   In addition, in both markets Tesla sales were down, and since they have been such a large percentage of the total market, this pulled down total sales.

The chart below shows the YoY percentage change in smoothed sales.  There is some tentative sign that sales are picking up.

7 months ago, EVs & PHEVs made up just 18% of the global market.  At the current 33% per annum growth rate, the 28% EV/PHEV market share will reach 37% next year, and 50% the year after.  But that growth rate depends on falling prices in Europe and the USA, and given the ramped up protectionism, prices aren't likely to decline.  However, EV sales outside the US and Europe are booming.  For example, EV/PHEV sales were up 133% in Brazil in 2024, Colombia 159%.  And Europe's EV/PHEV sales do appear to be recovering from the price shock (see my next piece)

Calculated from my seasonally adjustment of CleanTechnica's data