I've talked about the S-curve before. At first, the new technology has a tiny market share. But let's say it grows by 15% a year. The market share will rise four-fold in 10 years, and 66-fold in 30. At a 20% growth rate, market share will rise 6-fold in 10 years, 237-fold in 30 years. Naturally, as market share gets closer to 100%, growth rates slow. Hence the S-curve.
From The Electric Viking:
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