Fed survey average still falling

 There are 5 regional Federal Reserve Bank surveys, from the Fed branches in Kansas, Richmond, Philadelphia, Dallas and New York.  The simple average of these surveys is well correlated with overall US GDP, and also national surveys such as the one from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global's PMI survey, even though the 8 states covered by the San Francisco Fed are not included (that Fed branch doesn't do a survey).  There is a Chicago ISM from the same ppl who do the national ISM, but it isn't published early, so it gives us no hint of the national ISM's trends.  It correlates very well with the national ISM.

Conclusion:  the US economy continues to slide into recession, though the rate of descent may have slowed.

YOY GDP likely to be negative in Q1.
As usual, clicking on the charts will produce a clearer image.
Don't ask me why.  I know not.

"Flash' PMI increase in March likely to be a blip.