Off the charts

I have had to increase the tops of the scales of this chart several times in the last two weeks.  Bond yields still going up.

I reiterate: credit is tightening.  Dodgy loans (private credit, for example) will have ballooning yields.  The banks are supposedly safe (they've learnt their lesson after the GFC, of course they have!) but loans are hidden in special purpose vehicles, that is, specific legal entities for every questionable loan, so that they can be kept off balance sheet.   The AI boom depends upon cheap credit from gullible investors.  That is drying up.   

The Iran war is not over.   The Iranian regime understands Trump and his parade of half-witted clowns much better than they understand Iran.   They want the Republican regime to implode.  And that means that the oil price is not going to fall.  Plus there is no point in signing a peace treaty with a regime which continually breaks its word.

Central Banks believe that inflation is too high, and that it is rising.   And they're right.  They do not want high inflation to become embedded in expectations.  They will go on raising discount rates until the elastic snaps.  Which will puncture the AI bubble, and bring on a recession.  I leave it to you to imagine what might happen to share prices if this happens.