Electric car "S" adoption curve

A nice chart from Zachary Shahan at CleanTechnica:

Update: 2 and a half years after I wrote this piece, EVs make up 75% of car sales in Norway.

The three factors slowing the adoption of EVs are:

• Cost.  Until a few months ago, EVs were more expensive than most cars.  But there are now EVs which cost the same as an average car, before tax incentives and subsidies, though they still cost more than cheap petrol/diesel cars (ICEVs).  The cost of EVs will keep on falling as battery costs decline.  Even though EVs are 80% cheaper to run than ICEVs, their "sticker price" needs to be lower than ICEVs to drive adoption rates up.
• Fast charger network.  Not having a decent charger network is no major problem for urban driving (you can charge at home overnight) but it makes long-distance driving difficult, and also, home charging won't work if you don't have a garage.  But firms won't build out a proper charger network until there are enough EVs to make it profitable, and sales of EVs are held back by the absence of a network of fast chargers . . . . .  Except of course for Tesla, which has a huge network of its own fast chargers plus an even bigger network of slower and sometimes more expensive "destination chargers" at hotels, motels and resorts.
• Familiarity. Many people have no idea EVs even exist.  One of the reasons EVs are now 35% of sales in Norway isn't just because of the incentives to encourage EV sales (other countries have generous incentives too) but because everybody knows about EVs.  In fact you get a special number plate in Norway if you have an EV/PHEV beginning with "E", giving you bragging rights. 

These three factors entwine and interact.  But in the end, the last two will resolve as EVs get cheaper.  Even though it would be ideal to have a network of fast chargers, many people living in houses with a garage will buy EVs even without a decent charging network as EVs get cheaper and cheaper (to buy and to run.)  When there are enough EV owners, companies will start building EV charge stations, which in turn will drive EV sales higher.  And when your neighbour or your friend buys an EV, you'll learn about them too, so that when your turn comes to buy a new car, you'll also choose an EV.

Meanwhile BHP, the world's largest mining house and a producer of oil, coal, copper, iron ore, zinc, nickel and potash reckons that the tipping point for EV sales is this year:

This year looks set to be the “tipping point” for electric cars, Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer at global miner BHP (BLT.L) said on Tuesday, with the impact for raw materials producers to be felt first in the metals market, and only later in oil.

“In September 2016 we published a blog and we set the question - could 2017 be the year of the electric vehicle revolution?” said Balhuizen, a company veteran who runs BHP’s commercial strategy, procurement and marketing from Singapore.

“The answer is yes...2017 is the revolution year we have been speaking about. And copper is the metal of the future.”

Electric cars are expected to soon cost the same as traditional vehicles - as early as next year by some estimates. But governments are also getting on board, with China’s subsidies leading the way and Britain becoming the latest country to announce its all-electric ambitions in July.

Balhuizen said he expected the electric vehicle boom would be felt - for producers - first in copper, where supply will struggle to match increased demand. The world’s top mines are aging and there have been no major discoveries in two decades.

[Read more here]