75% of Norwegian car sales electric

From InsideEVs.

With Audi e-tron in its best form and supported by Tesla Model 3 volume deliveries, three out of four new cars sold were plug-ins.  March was an exceptional month in Norwegian history as the passenger plug-in electric cars for the very first time reached a market share of 75% (75.2% to be precise)! [That doesn't include conventional hybrids at 6.7%]

The total number of registrations actually decreased by 26.7% year-over-year from the all-time high of 12,764 (when tons of Tesla Model 3 come out a year ago) to 9,358, but it's still the second-best month ever.

The unprecedented surge in market share is mostly the result of a 32.2% drop of overall passenger car registrations, caused mostly by COVID-19, we guess.

Plug-ins were simply significantly less affected as plug-in hybrids actually improved year-over-year:

• BEVs: 6,966 (down 35.1%, at 55.9% market share) + 267 ‘used’ + 184 vans (180 new and 4 used) + 0 FCVs

• PHEVs: 2,392 (up 17.5%, at 19.2% market share)

As the plug-ins surge to 75.2% of the market, one might wonder what about conventional internal combustion engine cars? Well:

• diesel is at 10.4%

• gasoline is at 7.7%

• and the total ICE (diesel + gasoline) is at a record low of 18.1% (first time below 20%).

• The remaining 6.7% are other types, like conventional hybrids.

It's important to note that the incentives to buy EVs, PHEVs, and Hybrids haven't changed, yet the percentage of EVs/PHEVs keeps on rising.  Some of this is due to cheaper batteries which the car makers have used to extend range.  But much of it must be due to a demonstration effect.   A neighbour gets an electric car, a relative gets one, and so it seems much less outlandish to get one yourself.  More EVs means more charge points.  Better sales mean a bigger range of models.  

In 2012, 8 years ago,  plug-ins made up just 3% of Norway's car sales.  Last year, they reached 56%.  In 2020, they have briefly reached 75%.  By 2022, plug-ins will likely make up 90% of car sales in Norway.  The incentives in Norway to buy plug-ins are larger than elsewhere, so the uptake elsewhere may ramp more slowly, though the plunging cost of batteries will now start making plug-ins cheaper, offsetting that.  It seems very likely that by 2030 at the latest, most car sales globally will be plug-ins.  ICE car manufacturers have a brief window to transition--or go bankrupt.

[See also: The EV sales S-curve]

Source: InsideEVs