Coal price slides

 This is the coal price at Newcastle (Australia).  From the perspective of a "technical analyst"  or "chartist", i.e., one who looks at charts of price trends, this is a very significant downward break.  The thick red line is a 120 (working-) day moving average, and the thin red line is a 30 (working-) day moving average.  The 120-day moving average represents, if you like, the fundamental underlying trend; while the shorter moving average can be thought of as a "trading" trend.

If the price series is below its moving average, and the moving average is falling, that's a strong sell signal.  This is the case with both moving averages.  In addition, the most recent price is below recent lows.  This is called "breaking down" and is also bearish.  Notice, too, the rally since the beginning of this year.  It took the price back to the short-term moving average, and then fell to new lows.  This is another bearish sign.

Why is this happening?  Well, "chartists" say it doesn't matter.  To them, the fundamentals (supply/demand) don't matter.  To them, the price tells you everything you need to know: sell.

I no longer follow the supply/demand data, so I don't know for certain what is happening.  But I suspect that China's and Europe's roll-out of renewables is driving down demand.   Many observers confused the number of coal-fired power stations that China has built recently with increases in coal demand.  But they ignored the sustained downtrend in capacity factors in coal generation.  Chinese utilities, which are not driven by the same need to make profits as Western utilities, built coal pants as backup for their renewables, when drought (caused by global warming!) led to a plunge in hydroelectricity output and a nationwide power crisis.  The very rapid increase in wind and especially solar+battery roll-outs has meant that less and less coal is needed.

The behaviour of the coal price suggests that China's emissions have in fact peaked.   And from an investment perspective, coal is most definitely not a buy. 

This is the long-term (multi-year) chart:

Note how the long-term moving average got all the major cycles right
over the last 25 years, with only 4 "whipsaws".