Global temperatures rising again

Despite three years of La Niña, global temperatures have started rising again.  This year, the world will experience an El Niño, and temperatures will rise as they always do during El Niños.  The chart shows the temperature anomaly relative to the 1901-2000 average.    The years from 1850 to 1900 were on average something like 0.2 degrees cooler, so a 1.5 degrees increase above pre-industrialisation temperatures would be reached when the red bars reach 1.3 degrees C on the chart.   Note the LOESS smoothing and its steady and inexorable rise.

The last El Niño peak was in 2016, with the anomaly reaching 1.14 degrees C.   Temperatures are rising by roughly 0.2 degrees C per decade, so a temporary El Niño peak of 1.3 degrees C above the 1901-2000 average in 2024 is plausible.   (The rise between the 1998 and 2016 El Niños was 0.44 degrees C).  And that would mean we would have (temporarily) breached the 1.5 degree guardrail for the first time in recorded history.

Temperatures won't stop rising until CO2 emissions fall to zero or close to that, though we might get a temporary respite if methane emissions are slashed.  However, both CO2 and CH4 emissions continue to rise.

Too little is being done to prevent catastrophe.

Source: NOAA

US Labour mkt in May

Traded markets (shares, bonds, commodities and currencies) tend to be moved by the latest data.  This is, in a way, logical, because new data can make you re-assess your positions.  Was the latest data point stronger than you expected.  Yes?  No?  The market adjusts its expectations, and so it increases or decreases its weightings allocated towards (long) or against (short) certain assets.

So, a stronger than expected rise in US payrolls employment in May suggested that the economy was strong, and so company profits would be better.  But, wait a bit, wouldn't a stronger economy make it more likely that the Fed would raise rates?   Except, the unemployment rate went up, so maybe that would make the Fed more cautious.  There was something for everyone in the jobs report.  The share market duly spiked up, the US dollar rose, as did bond yields and commodity prices.

I prefer to look at trends, rather than the latest monthly movements.  What are they?

• Employment growth continues to slow.  It's still positive, but the trend is clearly down
• The change in the unemployment rate over 6 months, which tracks the economy, except it is inverted (unemployment goes up when the economy goes down), is rising.  In fact, the little blip in unemployment over the last few months matches the mini bounce we've seen in the ISM and PMI indices.
• The 'jobs plentiful' subcomponent of the consumer confidence index has slid to new lows, after (surprise!) a mini-spike.
• Overtime hours didn't rise in the month, which would have been a sign of strength.  Indeed, the downward trend since February last year is still intact, though the trend levelled off during the "blip" we saw in the first few months of this year.

Conclusions:

• The latest monthly spike in payrolls is not a sign of a strengthening economy;
• The "blip" in the economy is starting to wane, but ... ;
• ... it is not yet in recession.
• Which means, given inflation still being higher than the Fed's target, that the Fed has prolly not stopped raising the Fed Funds rate.

A most interesting point in the current US business cycle.  

I show only two of the possible charts, the change in payrolls employment, which is positively correlated with the cycle, and the change in the unemployment rate, which is negatively correlated, and so has been plotted inverted.  If you are interested in the others, drop me a note in the comments.  As usual, because of some mysterious Blogger algorithm, the charts are fuzzy, and will be clearer if you click on them.

India to pause new coal plant construction

From Associated Press

The Indian government will not consider any proposals for new coal plants for the next five years and focus on growing its renewables sector, according to an updated national electricity plan released Wednesday evening.

The temporary pause in the growth of the dirty fuel was hailed by energy experts as a positive step for a country that is currently reliant on coal for around 75% of its electricity.

Updated every five years, the plan serves as a guideline for India’s priorities in its electricity sector.

India is the world’s third highest emitter and most populous country. It plans to reach net zero emissions by 2070, which would mean significantly slashing coal use and ramping up renewable energy.

In a draft of the plan released in September, the Central Electricity Authority, which is in charge of planning for India’s electricity needs, projected that nearly 8,000 megawatts of new coal capacity was required by 2027. But Wednesday’s strategy proposes the build out of more than 8,600 megawatts of battery energy storage systems instead.

Battery storage is crucial for round-the-clock use of renewable energy.

“This plan is a step in the right direction,” said Raghav Pachouri, an energy sector expert at Vasudha Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.

Pachouri said one reason the plans for new coal might have been scrapped is because there are already some coal plants under construction.

The country is also experiencing longer summers and hotter weather in part due to climate change, meaning greater electricity demand during the scorching day, making it easier to fulfill energy needs with renewables, said Pachouri.

“When you need energy during the day, solar power can provide for it,” he said.

India plans to install 500 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030, enough energy to power anywhere from 150 to 500 million homes depending on power use, but is not on course to meet that target, according to Aditya Lolla, an energy analyst at the think tank Ember.

“We’re installing only up to 17 gigawatts a year, this needs to increase to 40 to 45 gigawatts to meet targets,” said Lolla.

The new plan goes on to project that new coal power will be built after 2027, but Lolla says this should be taken with a pinch of salt.

“Traditionally, projections for the coming five years are more concrete and those for the subsequent years are essentially placeholders,” said Lolla. “India wants to move towards a cleaner power system. With every electricity plan, the coal pipeline is falling.”

Lolla predicts that with the current volatile global energy picture, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate change and pandemic recovery, India will take a call on its longer-term energy plan at a future date, depending on how things progress by 2027.

Workers install solar panels on the roof of a residential apartment in Kochi, southern Kerala state, India, March 22, 2023.  (AP Photo/R S Iyer, File)

There are only a few countries still building new coal power stations.   India was supposed to save world coal mines, but it seems likely that India's coal use is close to peaking, though India still has 28.5 GW of capacity in its coal power station pipeline.   This compares to China's 250 GW.    

How much clean energy has been added since 2017?

A lot.

From Canary Media

Renewable energy is being deployed at a fast clip around the globe — especially solar and especially in China. That’s the story behind new capacity figures from IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency.

At the end of 2022, global renewable generation capacity amounted to 3,372 gigawatts — although it’s time we start calling it 3.4 terawatts and accept that we’re in the terawatt age.

While hydropower accounts for the largest share of the new global total, solar is the real star of the show. Solar energy from photovoltaic panels has led the world’s renewables capacity expansion, with 192 gigawatts added from 2021 to 2022, a gaudy 22 percent increase.

Global solar capacity now exceeds 1,000 gigawatts, compared to just 100 gigawatts in 2012 [a 25% per annum growth rate]. It’s an astounding leap and a testament to the power of learning curves on product price and quality. These same learning curves are now working their magic on lithium-ion batteries and might soon apply to electrolyzers for cleaner hydrogen production.

China is leading global solar expansion, followed distantly by the United States, India, Brazil, the Netherlands and Germany, in that order. China deployed nearly half of all renewable energy capacity added in 2022, a jaw-dropping 141 gigawatts of the 295 gigawatts installed globally.

Renewables continue to gain in overall share of total generation capacity, rising from 38.3 percent in 2021 to 40.2 percent in 2022.

The dire, just-released synthesis report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sounds the tocsin for a radical acceleration in the deployment of renewable energy in order to keep the planet from overheating. The global solar and wind industries are demonstrating that this type of acceleration is not only possible but actually starting to happen.

Source: Canary Media

The number of democracies

 From Visual Capitalist

El Niño may push heating past 1.5 C ....

..... but urgent action could still avert catastrophe.

From The Guardian

For several years, the world has been in the grip of La Niña, a weather system in the Pacific that tends to bring cooler temperatures around the world.

Despite that, there has continued to be strong rises in global surface temperatures, with some of the hottest years on record. This year, the oscillating Pacific weather system will probably turn to its opposite, the warming El Niño. That is likely to turbocharge temperatures, and within the next five years we can expect to see new records set, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The previous highest global annual average temperature above pre-industrial levels was 1.28C, but there is now a roughly two-thirds likelihood that surface temperatures will breach 1.5C for at least one of the next five years.

But the rise in temperatures could be temporary, the WMO said. While the trend marches upward, some years are still likely to be slightly cooler, and when the El Niño weather system eventually wanes again and re-enters the opposing, cooling La Niña phase, that could bring down levels from their peaks.

Mark Maslin, a professor of Earth system science at University College London, said: “Within the next five years the extra warming that comes with El Niño events will temporally push the global climate over the 1.5C. It may then drop back below 1.5C, allowing climate change deniers to tell everyone the world is now cooling – as they always ignore the long-term trend.”

But he said any respite would be temporary. “Global [greenhouse gas] emissions have yet to drop, and emissions in 2022 were the highest in human history. Hence the long-term warming trend will continue, and without emission reductions we could pass 1.5C permanently in the next 10 years.”

Even if that does happen, the temperature goal in the Paris agreement is still worth fighting for, Maslin argues. “This does not mean we should give up on the 1.5C target – far from it. It was an ambitious and aspirational target set by all nations at the Paris climate conference in 2015 and at Cop28 we must re-enforce the global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.

“If we ultimately fail to keep global climate to below 1.5C, then we fight for 1.6C and then 1.7C and then 1.8C – because as scientists we know that every 10th of degree of warming will make a huge difference to the impacts of climate change. And the extreme weather events we have experienced over the last few years are just a warning shot to what is to come if we cannot switch to cleaner energy and lifestyles.”

Bob Ward, a policy director at Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, adds: “The 1.5C target refers to the trend in global average temperature, and not just a single year. While we may breach the threshold for a year in the near future, the main risks are associated with the trend reaching 1.5C within the next couple of decades, when most years will be 1.5C or warmer than the pre-industrial level.”

Some people have tried to argue that the 1.5C threshold is a political rather than a scientific target. There will be serious impacts on the climate at 1.4C of warming, and 1.6C, and so on, observes Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate at Imperial College London. But science shows that we should not regard 1.5C as without harm.

Otto said: “There will be more irreversible consequences at 1.6C than at 1.5C, but there will also be irreversible changes at 1.4C compared with 1.3C. But we should not say that 1.5C is a safe limit – we are already at 1.2C of heating and people are dying, ecosystems are dying as a result. So 1.5C is a political compromise, not a safe physical limit.”

Ward adds: “The 1.5C threshold is a political target, as identified in the Paris agreement, but it is based on science, particularly the assessment published in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It showed how the impacts increase significantly with warming beyond 1.5C, and the risks of crossing major thresholds also rise. The evidence that some impacts, such as intense heatwaves, are beginning to appear earlier than expected could be an indicator that the risks of breaching 1.5C have been underestimated.”

Scientists know there are “tipping points” within the climate system, when warming triggers a cascade of impacts – for instance, the melting of the ice caps, or the point at which a drying Amazon turns from rainforest to savannah. More of these tipping points are likely to be triggered, the higher temperature goes.

There are actions we could take to try to reduce global heating in the short term, chief among them reducing emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane. Produced by inefficient fossil fuel operations, and from animal agriculture and waste, methane is about 80 times more potent in warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, but it is relatively short-lived, breaking down into carbon dioxide within about two decades. Plugging the leaks in oil and gas wells and coalmines would go a long way to reducing methane emissions, and could even be profitable with today’s high gas prices, according to the International Energy Agency.

But any such measures must be accompanied by broader emissions reductions, as this is the only way to stop the upward march of temperatures.

Ward said: “Most analyses, including the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, show that it will now be very difficult, given where we currently are, to stop the trend in temperature exceeding 1.5C within the next few decades. In that sense, the battle to keep 1.5 alive has probably failed.

“The world has failed to recognise the scale of the risks clearly spelled out by the scientists, and has failed to mount an adequate response. But that does not mean we should abandon the target as we can still avoid many serious impacts if we can bring down global mean surface temperature so it is lower than the 1.5C target by the end of the century.”

Tokyo’s skyline is barely visible through the dusty air as Japan experiences its warmest spring on record. Photograph: Philip Fong/AFP/Getty

China still aggressively expanding coal power

From The South China Morning Post

China’s aggressive expansion of coal power projects last year set back global efforts to phase out existing plants, which is crucial in the fight against climate change, according to a new study.

Coal-powered capacity in operation in developed and developing countries fell in 2022 as existing plants were retired and proposed projects were cancelled, except in China where new projects are coming up as local governments heed Beijing’s call to ensure energy security.

New coal capacity under development in China increased 38 per cent to 366 gigawatts (GW) last year, while it decreased 20 per cent elsewhere, which drove global projects under development to 537GW, up 12 per cent after hitting a record low in 2021, according to the annual survey released on Thursday by San Francisco-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and 12 other climate non-profit organisations.

Globally, 45.5GW of coal capacity was commissioned in 2022, with nearly 60 per cent coming from China, according to the report. And although 26GW of coal capacity was retired globally last year, the world’s coal-powered fleet grew by 19.5GW, an increase of less than 1 per cent compared with 2021.

“The more new coal projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future,” said Flora Champenois, lead author of the report and project manager for GEM’s global coal plant tracker. “At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos.”

The GEM report came as the United Nations’ climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warned in its latest report last month that current plans and pace of climate actions are insufficient to meet the Paris climate agreement of limiting global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century

China’s aggressive expansion of coal power projects last year set back global efforts to phase out existing plants, which is crucial in the fight against climate change, according to a new study.

Coal-powered capacity in operation in developed and developing countries fell in 2022 as existing plants were retired and proposed projects were cancelled, except in China where new projects are coming up as local governments heed Beijing’s call to ensure energy security.

New coal capacity under development in China increased 38 per cent to 366 gigawatts (GW) last year, while it decreased 20 per cent elsewhere, which drove global projects under development to 537GW, up 12 per cent after hitting a record low in 2021, according to the annual survey released on Thursday by San Francisco-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and 12 other climate non-profit organisations.

Globally, 45.5GW of coal capacity was commissioned in 2022, with nearly 60 per cent coming from China, according to the report. And although 26GW of coal capacity was retired globally last year, the world’s coal-powered fleet grew by 19.5GW, an increase of less than 1 per cent compared with 2021.

“The more new coal projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future,” said Flora Champenois, lead author of the report and project manager for GEM’s global coal plant tracker. “At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos.”

The GEM report came as the United Nations’ climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warned in its latest report last month that current plans and pace of climate actions are insufficient to meet the Paris climate agreement of limiting global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

In an “Acceleration Agenda” released along with the IPCC report, the UN urged that all existing coal plants must be retired by 2030 in the world’s richest countries, and by 2040 everywhere, and there is no room for any new coal plants.

To meet the UN’s requirement of phasing out coal power by 2040, the pace of retiring coal fleet needs to move four and half times faster than last year, which means retiring an average of 117GW per year, according to GEM.

OECD countries need to retire an average of 60GW of coal power each year to meet their 2030 phase-out deadline, and for non-OECD countries, 91GW each year for their 2040 deadline. For the 537GW of coal capacity under construction and consideration, the required pace of retirement would have to be even steeper, the report said.

The report also raised the alarm over China’s rapid coal power expansion, which could single-handedly reverse progress being made across the rest of the world on coal plant retirements.

China, the world’s largest coal producer and consumer, has embarked on a rapid expansion of its coal fleet since an initial wave of power outages closed factories and homes across half the country in 2021. A drought-induced power shortage in China’s hydro-rich regions such as Sichuan province last year further prompted officials in Beijing to order provincial authorities to ramp up coal production to ensure power security.

Although the country has committed to phase down coal use from 2026 to reach its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, coal is likely to remain at the core of China’s energy infrastructure to ensure stable power supply, former premier Li Keqiang signalled in a speech at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress last month.

China curbing the use of coal is crucial to the global fight against climate change, analysts said.

“Outside China, the response to the energy crisis was dominated by investments in clean energy. However, that progress urgently needs to be accelerated,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“China pulled in the opposite direction, sharply increasing planned coal power capacity, showing the need to deploy clean solutions and better enforcement of existing policies that should restrict new coal power projects,” he said.

Source: Statista
Global emissions continue to rise.  To have any chance of limiting the rise
in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees C,
emissions need to start falling.