My private sector index looks ..... terrible

I've updated my composite index of private sector data sources.  They now are (equal weights):

1. The whole-economy ISM index
2. The whole-economy PMI index
3. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
4. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index
5. The LMI logistics index
6. ADP's monthly job change
7. Challenger's monthly job losses
8. "Jobs easy to fill", from the NFIB survey (data only through September; October values out this week)
9. "Jobs are plentiful" from the Conference Board survey

I've plotted the resulting index after extreme-adjusting it, mainly to remove the massive down-spike during the Covid Crash. 

It looks more bearish than my previous index.  In fact, it looks terrible.

[Here is my first piece about my private sector data index]

For the data nerds among you, here's the chart of the index before and after extreme-adjustment:

US small business optimism index slides to new lows

 The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) small business optimism index fell to a new 10-year low in April.  As you can see from the chart, the NFIB optimism index leads the business cycle (as represented here by the QCI, shown as a deviation from its moving trend) by many months at the peak of the cycle, but by only a few months at the trough.  Note though that the NFIB index rebounded a little in 2022, leading the rebound we've seen in the PMI and ISM, but has resumed its decline.  We're not yet at its GFC lows, but we're getting there.

click on chart to see clearer image