tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35878838583825325302024-03-18T20:48:03.125+11:00VolewicaFollow me on Mastodon: https://mstdn.social/@Nigel_PurchaseUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3982125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-31814099436247702112024-03-18T19:21:00.005+11:002024-03-18T19:21:58.005+11:00Why is the sea so hot?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG-PutGE1l_Ou4mlVowyiu8vgyQzTGMqeU3Zzs7PWrMntWkE5v2h80SP-KNxhyphenhyphenCoDE0p4UM7CiAiWBwFQPp2X4-4i0QPLFYft4ENy0emJulikrvDsn8nNIziRTZQeQDDtmvzgGR_HhRxuSjsIc-7jiZbde_gwIrRlZb6fsnb45k4hAPNt21nk2tgh6RISR/s1920/Kolbert-Ocean-Water.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1920" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG-PutGE1l_Ou4mlVowyiu8vgyQzTGMqeU3Zzs7PWrMntWkE5v2h80SP-KNxhyphenhyphenCoDE0p4UM7CiAiWBwFQPp2X4-4i0QPLFYft4ENy0emJulikrvDsn8nNIziRTZQeQDDtmvzgGR_HhRxuSjsIc-7jiZbde_gwIrRlZb6fsnb45k4hAPNt21nk2tgh6RISR/w640-h426/Kolbert-Ocean-Water.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photgraph by Marli Miller/UCG/Getty/The New Yorker</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /> From <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot">The New Yorker</a><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>In early 2023, climate scientists—and anyone else paying attention to the data—started to notice something strange. At the beginning of March, sea-surface temperatures began to rise. By April, they’d set a new record: the average temperature at the surface of the world’s oceans, excluding those at the poles, was just a shade under seventy degrees. Typically, the highest sea-surface temperatures of the year are observed in March, toward the end of the Southern Hemisphere’s summer. Last year, temperatures remained abnormally high through the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn and beyond, breaking the monthly records for May, June, July, and other months. The North Atlantic was particularly bathtub-like; in the words of Copernicus, an arm of the European Union’s space service, temperatures in the basin were “off the charts.”<br /><br />Since the start of 2024, sea-surface temperatures have continued to climb; in February, they set yet another record. In a warming world, ocean temperatures are expected to rise and keep on rising. But, for the last twelve months, the seas have been so feverish that scientists are starting to worry about not just the physical impacts of all that heat but the theoretical implications. Can the past year be explained by what’s already known about climate change, or are there forces at work that haven’t been accounted for? And, if it’s the latter, does this mean that projections of warming, already decidedly grim, are underestimating the dangers?<br /><br />“We don’t really know what’s going on,” Gavin Schmidt, the director of nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told me. “And we haven’t really known what’s going on since about March of last year.” He called the situation “disquieting.”<br /><br />Last winter, before ocean temperatures began their record run, the world was in the cool—or La Niña—phase of a climate pattern that goes by the acronym enso. By summer, an El Niño—or warm phase—had begun. Since ocean temperatures started to climb before the start of El Niño, the shift, by itself, seems insufficient to account for what’s going on. Meanwhile, the margin by which records are being shattered exceeds what’s usually seen during El Niños.<br /><br />“It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said. “It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison’s sake, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules.<br /><br />A variety of circumstances and events have been cited as possible contributors to the past year’s anomalous warmth. One is the January, 2022, eruption of an underwater volcano in the South Pacific called Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai. Usually, volcanoes emit sulfur dioxide, which produces a temporary cooling effect, and water vapor, which does the opposite. Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai produced relatively little sulfur dioxide but a fantastic amount of water vapor, and its warming effects, it’s believed, are still being felt.<br /><br />Another factor is the current solar cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25. Solar activity is ramping up—it’s expected to peak this year or next—and this, too, may be producing an extra bit of warming.<br /><br />Yet another is a change in the composition of shipping fuel. Regulations that went into effect in 2020 reduced the amount of sulfur in the fuel used by supertankers. This reduction, in turn, has led to a decline in a type of air pollution that, through direct and indirect effects, reflects sunlight back to space. It’s thought that this change has led to an increase in the amount of energy being absorbed by the seas, though quantifying the effect is difficult.<br /><br />Can all of these factors together account for what’s going on? Climate scientists say it’s possible. There’s also a lot of noise in the climate system. “This could end up just being natural variability,” Susan Wijffels, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said.<br /><br />But, possibly, something else is going on—something that scientists haven’t yet accounted for. This spring, enso is expected to transition into what scientists call “neutral” conditions. If precedent holds, then when this occurs ocean temperatures should start to run more in line with long-term trends.<br /><br />“I think the real test will be what happens in the next twelve months,” Wijffels said. “If temperatures remain very high, then I would say more people in the community will be really alarmed and say ‘O.K., this is outside of what we can explain.’ ”<br /><br />In 2023, which was by far the warmest year on record on land, as well as in the oceans, many countries experienced record-breaking heat waves or record-breaking wildfires or record-breaking rainstorms or some combination of these. (Last year, in the United States, there were twenty-eight weather-related disasters that caused more than a billion dollars’ worth of damage—another record.) If the climate projections are accurate, then the year was a preview of things to come, which is scary enough. But, if the projections are missing something, that’s potentially even more terrifying, though scientists tend to use more measured terms.<br /><br />“The other thing that this could all be is, we are starting to see shifts in how the system responds,” Schmidt observed. “All of these statistics that we’re talking about, they’re taken from the prior data. But nothing in the prior data looked like 2023. Does that mean that the prior data are no longer predictive because the system has changed? I can’t rule that out, and that would obviously be very concerning.”</b></span></blockquote> <br />[Read more <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot" target="_blank">here</a>]Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-6979390424697830122024-03-15T11:57:00.002+11:002024-03-15T11:57:12.830+11:00The New York Times newsroom in January 2025<p> <a href="https://tomdbug.wpcomstaging.com/the-inner-hive/" target="_blank">Tom The Dancing Bug by Ruben Bolling</a></p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXcF-IteyhYU6lYEa1iFf2mxd4VR8wIer_X8Kt9m42wT92ffCcNV1KUGsHia3KBDTIuiBVjdSOXrjcOfmP3N6oV-DzkYflw4TrHDhBvIs2C_Q6AQ2xcCm4_q_jGMmm7BrZ9rgvcRr7XG5CnK3gzDvm5kW9IxhyiIPhz_gjzCqNfKCNN8YuqIE8EBQ1-dC/s1272/the%20new%20york%20times%20newsroom%20in%20january%202025.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1272" data-original-width="970" height="839" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXcF-IteyhYU6lYEa1iFf2mxd4VR8wIer_X8Kt9m42wT92ffCcNV1KUGsHia3KBDTIuiBVjdSOXrjcOfmP3N6oV-DzkYflw4TrHDhBvIs2C_Q6AQ2xcCm4_q_jGMmm7BrZ9rgvcRr7XG5CnK3gzDvm5kW9IxhyiIPhz_gjzCqNfKCNN8YuqIE8EBQ1-dC/w488-h640/the%20new%20york%20times%20newsroom%20in%20january%202025.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-57190531181673092052024-03-15T11:45:00.005+11:002024-03-15T11:45:54.788+11:00AI religious Trump<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7LiTDgBES2QkTHtWhD9RWF-DW9GEES8ug92knvAkz8zeTpQZc3vJLzTrAoZSTNmyrxNSiSrI0zgqdQ74TZyOqzYwJfqCfXOcGh13h7XYJYT06ZYMl07uK2u2XlTLLBmpYTZmTQkfJiWzOgqjkQNBtSreGlyWNfWBdlMN6hnDPv5FSTznjpN7SuK6oYczB/s1351/religious%20ai%20trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1351" data-original-width="1080" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7LiTDgBES2QkTHtWhD9RWF-DW9GEES8ug92knvAkz8zeTpQZc3vJLzTrAoZSTNmyrxNSiSrI0zgqdQ74TZyOqzYwJfqCfXOcGh13h7XYJYT06ZYMl07uK2u2XlTLLBmpYTZmTQkfJiWzOgqjkQNBtSreGlyWNfWBdlMN6hnDPv5FSTznjpN7SuK6oYczB/w512-h640/religious%20ai%20trump.jpg" width="512" /></a></div><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-56299521903291369862024-03-14T23:09:00.002+11:002024-03-14T23:09:04.538+11:00Australia's biggest smelter's massive wind & solar tender<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg606W6NxofEuAux0N1ToWtqgbkZS8urGkqGech0h02IrG_AX2r9_BG92oJCHei5X3xpBDqblhgBkx9mF9QTuTMYxbX76fcVl1hvxcpEZy8UViX7wn2eojhP-yHdOrLL6ZGx0ygg4NMTbzxx0E1ZVQAj89ve-5WiueNlDVAZ9T5L9lLcpjbi08RfRcgVK75/s950/tomago%20aluminium%20smelter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="950" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg606W6NxofEuAux0N1ToWtqgbkZS8urGkqGech0h02IrG_AX2r9_BG92oJCHei5X3xpBDqblhgBkx9mF9QTuTMYxbX76fcVl1hvxcpEZy8UViX7wn2eojhP-yHdOrLL6ZGx0ygg4NMTbzxx0E1ZVQAj89ve-5WiueNlDVAZ9T5L9lLcpjbi08RfRcgVK75/w640-h448/tomago%20aluminium%20smelter.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A small part of the Tomago aluminium smelter</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><br /> From Renew Economy<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>A massive tender for wind and solar projects is to be launched next week to help repower Australia’s biggest aluminium smelter Tomago, near Newcastle, with its majority owner saying nuclear is out of the question because it is too slow and too expensive.<br /><br />The tender will be a landmark event for the Australian renewable energy transition, because the Tomalgo smelter – with annual demand of more than 8 terawatt hours, is the biggest single energy consumer in the country,[about 4% of total annual electricity demand]<br /><br />Majority owner Rio Tinto this year has already announced two record-breaking contracts for wind and solar farms in Australia to provide power for its Boyne Island smelter in Gladstone, Queensland, and its two alumina refineries in the same port city.<br /><br />Those contracts included one for the first gigawatt scale solar project in Australia, t<a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/rio-tinto-signs-contract-for-australian-grids-first-gigawatt-scale-solar-project/">he 1.1 GW Upper Calliope solar </a>project in central Queensland, and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/rio-signs-australias-biggest-wind-energy-deal-to-help-power-giant-smelter-and-refineries/">the 1.4 GW Bungapan wind project t</a>o be developed by iron ore billionaire Andrew Forrest’s majority owned Windlab.<br /><br />In an interview on Renew Economy’s popular and weekly <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/energy-insiders-podcast-australias-biggest-smelters-flick-switch-to-wind-and-solar/">Energy Insiders podcast </a>this week, the head of Pacific Repowering in Rio Tinto’s energy and climate division, Vik Selvaraja, says the first steps towards a new tender will be launched next week.<br /><br />“Next week, we’re launching an RFP (request for proposals) for Tomago,” Selvaraja told the podcast.<br /><br />“And we are very, very keen to go down a very similar process of assessing what projects exist in New South Wales that we can partner with to bring to the market.”<br /><br />Further details were not released, but it is likely to be similar in scope to the 5 GW of new capacity required by Rio Tinto for its Gladstone smelters and refineries.<br /><br />Rio Tinto has locked in more than 2.2 GW of that wind and solar capacity, and is in talks with state and federal governments about assistance for the more costly storage and other dispatchable capacity before embarking on the rest of the tenders.<br /><br />Tomago has a need for nearly one gigawatt of flat load to power its pot lines and – like the Gladstone facilities – wants to switch from its current dependence on coal to renewables and flexible power by the end of the decade.<br /><br />The switch from fossil fuels to renewables for the country’s biggest consumers of energy makes a nonsense of the claims that such facilities can only prosper on so-called “base-load” power, a claim the federal Coalition uses to justify its plans to extend the life of coal fired generators and replace them with nuclear.<br /><br />Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien has been claiming that while nuclear is expensive to build, it is somehow cheap to consume. But that too is a nonsense claim, and only made possible in some countries by government ownership and massive subsidies.<br /><br />Asked about the nuclear option, Selvaraja said: “As far as we can see … all validated and independent data that exists on costs say that it (nuclear) is a very expensive source of energy. And I think in Australia, certainly, we’ve got low cost wind and solar, and we were going to run with that.”<br /><br />Rio Tinto, it should be noted, was once one of the major producers of uranium, but no more following the closure of the Ranger mine in the NT, owned by Energy Resources of Australia.</b></span></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-13815642945882011982024-03-14T22:44:00.002+11:002024-03-14T22:44:59.860+11:00Vitasoy Australia's biggest year yet<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhNjJ26-PokjA-iuf16dknFOv0aYSrYcuMHzFT0XtJMwogLZ_ElBs3eb3W7Js7V7A6NSRTBWcmiu_V6rdj0oYyIZma-s28yqCAJ04dZZzyuV5tho23eSx9d7IEOmfYUcluqHBGfSo-1EWvI7_JRMW0TEJL5mGNRlGtBzkYMl8MsNhCpU_2rUzdsguirb80R" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="456" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhNjJ26-PokjA-iuf16dknFOv0aYSrYcuMHzFT0XtJMwogLZ_ElBs3eb3W7Js7V7A6NSRTBWcmiu_V6rdj0oYyIZma-s28yqCAJ04dZZzyuV5tho23eSx9d7IEOmfYUcluqHBGfSo-1EWvI7_JRMW0TEJL5mGNRlGtBzkYMl8MsNhCpU_2rUzdsguirb80R=w589-h640" width="589" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The soy milk I drink, <br />which is the closest to the taste of cow's milk as I remember it.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><br /> From <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-11-07/vitasoy-australia-plant-based-milk-consumption-continues-to-grow/103060218">the ABC</a><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>A major Australian plant-based milk processor is forecasting its highest yearly production as consumers continue to embrace the dairy alternative.<br /><br />Vitasoy Australia is tipped to produce about 70 million litres of soy, almond, oat, rice, and coconut milks on top of a new line of soy and oat-based yoghurts this year.<br /><br />The factory, in Baranduda in north-east Victoria, opened in 2002 and at the time produced about 10 million litres a year. <br /><br />Vitasoy Australia chief executive David Tyack said the market was projected to keep growing.<br /><br />"In the past 10 years, there hasn't been a contraction in the market," Mr Tyack said.<br /><br />"It's gone from the hippy-alternative sold in health food shops to a mainstream product. Forty per cent of Australian households now have a plant-based milk in the fridge."<br /><br />According to the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21">Australian </a><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australians-buy-more-dairy-and-meat-substitutes-2020-21">Bureau of Statistics</a>, the amount of dairy substitutes purchased from supermarkets and other food retailers jumped another 14 per cent in 2020–21.<br /><br />Almond milk had shown an increase of 31 per cent in apparent consumption from 2020–22.<br /><br />Mr Tyack attributed the market's growth to a range of consumer behaviours including the "rise of veganism" and people wanting plant-based milk for health reasons.<br /><br />"There's a needs basis. People who can't have lactose, and for coeliacs the only way to engage with milk is through rice milk," he said.<br /><br />"Also, there are not many coffee shops that don't offer soy, almond, or oat milk."<br /><br />Vitasoy said its most popular product for the past five years had been almond milk, however Mr Tyack expected oat milk to soon become the number one plant-based milk.<br /><br /><br />"Oat has gone absolutely ballistic in the past four years," Mr Tyack said.<br /><br />"It's the most sustainable crop in the plant-based milk game, uses less water, less emissions and, in terms of taste, it's quite a neutral taste so it's a good gateway jump from dairy. It's creamy and in the coffee sense it makes coffee shine through."<br /><br />Although soy milk was less popular than oat and almond, Mr Tyack said it still had a place in the market.<br /><br />"The role that soy plays is that it's the closest to dairy milk in terms of protein calcium," he said.<br /><br />"Almond and oat don't come anywhere near to the delivery of benefits."<br /><br />Looking ahead, Mr Tyack said the future was bright for plant-based milks, however there was a limit to the growth.<br /><br />"On top of the current 40 per cent, we know from our research there's another 30 per cent of households that are open to having plant-based milk in their repertoire but that's probably the limit," he said.<br /><br />"The other 30 per cent of the market are dairy loyalists and won't consider a plant-based offer." [39 years ago, 90% of the public "wouldn't consider a plant-based offer". We've come a long way.]<br /><br />The plant-based milk market is still small compared to the dairy industry.<br /><br />According to Dairy Australia, more than 8 billion litres of milk was produced last year, however that was the lowest raw milk production in 30 years.</b></span></blockquote><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOrUuzrCQ6HoMYorSuaEWOcKsoF9gmOpM-ztuX5VWGc94CLpudtIt0cy2IvEkmMMh9AYsbE7hvvrREFRNT0QhdmTyy0L0TZKe8YZf7AKF2fATykz2UR-Pwts_OSJ7mgnIKZq3WWSD4pbu8DaTt4tJt-NUG1E3Uyesdk0hqptWZYN9CfFVPLMt1vjr2m3GQ/s1600/baranduda%20regiona;%20park.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1600" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOrUuzrCQ6HoMYorSuaEWOcKsoF9gmOpM-ztuX5VWGc94CLpudtIt0cy2IvEkmMMh9AYsbE7hvvrREFRNT0QhdmTyy0L0TZKe8YZf7AKF2fATykz2UR-Pwts_OSJ7mgnIKZq3WWSD4pbu8DaTt4tJt-NUG1E3Uyesdk0hqptWZYN9CfFVPLMt1vjr2m3GQ/w640-h320/baranduda%20regiona;%20park.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is a park in the area where the factory is located, <br />which is in the foothills of the Great Dividing Range.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-20630170514355862222024-03-14T21:03:00.008+11:002024-03-14T21:03:59.424+11:00Why the world cannot afford the rich<br /> From <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3">Nature</a><br /><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>As environmental, social and humanitarian crises escalate, the world can no longer afford two things: first, the costs of economic inequality; and second, the rich. Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s most affluent 1% of people captured nearly twice as much of the new global wealth created as did the other 99% of individuals put together<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR1">1</a>, and in 2019 they emitted as much carbon dioxide as the poorest two-thirds of humanity<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR2">2</a>. In the decade to 2022, the world’s billionaires more than doubled their wealth, to almost US$12 trillion.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01684-1">evidence gathered by social epidemiologists</a>, including us, shows that large differences in income are a powerful social stressor that is increasingly rendering societies dysfunctional. For example, bigger gaps between rich and poor are accompanied by higher rates of homicide and imprisonment. They also correspond to more infant mortality, obesity, drug abuse and <a href="https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-022-01647-6/index.html">COVID-19 deaths</a>, as well as higher rates of teenage pregnancy and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00210-9">lower levels of child well-being</a>, social mobility and public trust<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR3">3</a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR4">4</a>. The homicide rate in the United States — the most unequal Western democracy — is more than 11 times that in Norway (see <a href="http://go.nature.com/49fuujr">go.nature.com/49fuujr</a>). Imprisonment rates are ten times as high, and infant mortality and obesity rates twice as high.<br /><br />These problems don’t just hit the poorest individuals, although the poorest are most badly affected. Even affluent people would enjoy a better quality of life if they lived in a country with a more equal distribution of wealth, similar to a Scandinavian nation. They might see improvements in their mental health and have a reduced chance of becoming victims of violence; their children might do better at school and be less likely to take dangerous drugs.<br /><br />The costs of inequality are also excruciatingly high for governments. For example, the Equality Trust, a charity based in London (of which we are patrons and co-founders), estimated that the United Kingdom alone could save more than £100 billion ($126 billion) per year if it reduced its inequalities to the average of those in the five countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that have the smallest income differentials — Denmark, Finland, Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR5">5</a>. And that is considering just four areas: greater number of years lived in full health, better mental health, reduced homicide rates and lower imprisonment rates.<br /><br />Many commentators have drawn attention to the environmental need to limit economic growth and instead prioritize sustainability and well-being<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR6">6</a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR7">7</a>. Here we argue that tackling inequality is the foremost task of that transformation. Greater equality will reduce unhealthy and excess consumption, and will increase the solidarity and cohesion that are needed to make societies more adaptable in the face of climate and other emergencies.<br /><br />The underlying reasons for inequality having such profound and wide-ranging impacts are psychosocial. By accentuating differences in status and social class — for example, through the type of car someone drives, their clothing or where they live — inequality increases feelings of superiority and of inferiority. The view that some people are worth more than others can undermine people’s confidence and feelings of self-worth<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR8">8</a>. And, as studies of cortisol responses show, worry about how others see us is a powerful stressor<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR9">9</a>.<br /><br />Rates of ‘status anxiety’ have been found to be increased in all income groups in more-unequal societies<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR10">10</a>. Chronic stress has well-documented effects on mortality — it can double death rates<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR11">11</a>. Health-related behaviours are also affected by stress. Diet, exercise and smoking all show social gradients, but people are least likely to adopt healthy lifestyles when they feel stressed.<br /><br />Violence and bullying are also linked to competition for social status. Aggression is frequently triggered by disrespect, humiliation and loss of face. Bullying among schoolchildren is around six times as common in more-unequal countries<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR12">12</a>. In the United States, homicide rates were five times as high in states with higher levels of inequality as in those with a more even distribution of wealth<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR13">13</a>.<br /><br />Inequality also increases consumerism. Perceived links between wealth and self-worth drive people to buy goods associated with high social status and thus enhance how they appear to others — as US economist Thorstein Veblen set out more than a century ago in his book The Theory of the Leisure Class (1899). Studies show that people who live in more-unequal societies spend more on status goods<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR14">14</a>.<br /><br />Our work has shown that the amount spent on advertising as a proportion of gross domestic product is higher in countries with greater inequality. The well-publicized lifestyles of the rich promote standards and ways of living that others seek to emulate, triggering cascades of expenditure for holiday homes, swimming pools, travel, clothes and expensive cars.<br /><br />Oxfam reports that, on average, each of the richest 1% of people in the world produces 100 times the emissions of the average person in the poorest half of the world’s population<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR15">15</a>. That is the scale of the injustice. As poorer countries raise their material standards, the rich will have to lower theirs.<br /><br />Inequality also makes it harder to implement environmental policies. Changes are resisted if people feel that the burden is not being shared fairly. For example, in 2018, the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) protests erupted across France in response to President Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to implement an ‘eco-tax’ on fuel by adding a few percentage points to pump prices. The proposed tax was seen widely as unfair — particularly for the rural poor, for whom diesel and petrol are necessities. By 2019, the government had dropped the idea. Similarly, Brazilian truck drivers protested against rises in fuel tax in 2018, disrupting roads and supply chains.<br /><br />Do unequal societies perform worse when it comes to the environment, then? Yes. For rich, developed countries for which data were available, we found a strong correlation between levels of equality and a score on an index we created of performance in five environmental areas: air pollution; recycling of waste materials; the carbon emissions of the rich; progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals; and international cooperation (UN treaties ratified and avoidance of unilateral coercive measures).<br /><br />That correlation clearly holds when social and health problems are also factored in (see ‘Unequal outcomes’). To show this, we combined our environmental performance index with another that we developed previously that considers ten health and social problems: infant mortality, life expectancy, mental illness, obesity, educational attainment, teenage births, homicides, imprisonment, social mobility and trust. There’s a clear trend, with more-unequal societies having worse scores. </b></span></blockquote><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIC8a52xrXsXyn2ZZPIOPhcJd_ZvbwTxNPVsgauu33VTWSUCUr6L5Ekcb3cPCVKBD_rsI89k_eRNIbcMPeFUI-lyTEHg3NqGQ3jIPdaUDfgKKvqg7M_ZZgyQWCDVarQT4-0_h39KyyxWfiFaHyEqhI-5CQ9kowJB_FTdLBrwKFIkW6kO5V0YU15Zx_4Kxh"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIC8a52xrXsXyn2ZZPIOPhcJd_ZvbwTxNPVsgauu33VTWSUCUr6L5Ekcb3cPCVKBD_rsI89k_eRNIbcMPeFUI-lyTEHg3NqGQ3jIPdaUDfgKKvqg7M_ZZgyQWCDVarQT4-0_h39KyyxWfiFaHyEqhI-5CQ9kowJB_FTdLBrwKFIkW6kO5V0YU15Zx_4Kxh=w640-h539" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b> Other studies have also shown that more-equal societies are more cohesive, with higher levels of trust and participation in local groups<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR16">16</a>. And, compared with less-equal rich countries, another 10–20% of the populations of more-equal countries think that environmental protection should be prioritized over economic growth<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3#ref-CR17">17</a>. More-equal societies also perform better on the Global Peace Index (which ranks states on their levels of peacefulness), and provide more foreign aid. The UN target is for countries to spend 0.7% of their gross national income (GNI) on foreign aid; Sweden and Norway each give around 1% of their GNI, whereas the United Kingdom gives 0.5% and the United States only 0.2%.<br /><br />The scientific evidence is stark that reducing inequality is a fundamental precondition for addressing the environmental, health and social crises the world is facing. It’s essential that policymakers act quickly to reverse decades of rising inequality and curb the highest incomes.<br /><br />First, governments should choose progressive forms of taxation, which shift economic burdens from people with low incomes to those with high earnings, to reduce inequality and to pay for the infrastructure that the world needs to transition to carbon neutrality and sustainability. Although governments might baulk at this suggestion, there’s plenty of headroom. For example, tax rates on the highest incomes in the United States were well above 70% for about half of the twentieth century — much higher than today’s top rate of 37%. To shore up public support, governments need to make a strong case that the whole of society should contribute to funding the clean energy transition and good health.<br /><br />International agreements to close tax havens and loopholes must be made. Corporate tax avoidance is estimated to cost poor countries $100 billion per year — enough to educate an extra 124 million children and prevent perhaps 8 million maternal and infant deaths annually. OECD member countries are responsible for more than two-thirds of these tax losses, according to the Tax Justice Network, an advocacy group in Bristol, UK. The OECD estimates that low- or middle-income countries lose three times as much to tax havens as they receive in foreign aid.<br /><br />Although not yet tried, the merits of a consumption tax — calculated on the basis of personal income minus savings — to restrain consumption should also be considered. Unlike value-added and sales taxes, such a tax could be made very progressive. Bans on advertising tobacco, alcohol, gambling and prescription drugs are common internationally, but taxes to restrict advertising more generally would help to reduce consumption. Energy costs might also be made progressive by charging more per unit at higher levels of consumption.<br /><br />Legislation and incentives will also be needed to ensure that large companies — which dominate the global economy — are run more fairly. For example, business practices such as employee ownership, representation on company boards and share ownership, as well as mutuals and cooperatives, tend to reduce the scale of income and wealth inequality. In contrast to the 200:1 ratio reported by one analyst for the top to the bottom pay rates among the 100 largest-worth companies listed on the FTSE 100 stock-market index (see <a href="http://go.nature.com/3p9cdbv">go.nature.com/3p9cdbv</a>), the Mondragon group of Spanish cooperatives has an agreed maximum ratio of 9:1. And such companies perform well in ethical and sustainability terms. The Mondragon group came 11th in Fortune magazine’s 2020 ‘Change the World’ list, which recognizes companies for implementing innovative business strategies with a positive global impact.<br /><br />Reducing economic inequality is not a panacea for health, social and environmental problems, but it is central to solving them all. Greater equality confers the same benefits on a society however it is achieved. Countries that adopt multifaceted approaches will go furthest and fastest.<br /><br />Nature 627, 268-270 (2024)<br /><br />doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00723-3</b></span></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>Neo-liberalism has failed. It has created huge inequalities in societies, it has worsened the environmental crisis, and it has made our politics more vicious and rabid. Time for a change.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-65072150338700872622024-03-14T12:25:00.006+11:002024-03-14T22:58:11.673+11:00Covid death rates and the GQP<br /> From a <a href="https://mstdn.social/@LiamOMaraIV@mastodon.social/112091247193223387">toot by Liam O'Mara</a><br /><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Seems there is a pretty clear correlation between support for <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Trumpism">#Trumpism</a> and a lack of basic scientific literacy. Whodathunkit?</b></span></blockquote><br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpKfWb12NF1TYSVA-CQ_lakcKSBWI3-2lZH_WLfgPkLlri13JlHh19DNmZZqnu74Dj5wJHqJFHOGxsZNxYUDfFLdXvVCqp6W8EcTRKvORID86eLrtGpGrJkZps_42wAd_tprUrZ9bHQFoKEQuemiRemmkBfNBdAqhYZhxBd0Pz0N6F1KV6mmmJ6pkmBwfJ/s480/covid%20death%20rates%20vs%20GQP.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="480" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpKfWb12NF1TYSVA-CQ_lakcKSBWI3-2lZH_WLfgPkLlri13JlHh19DNmZZqnu74Dj5wJHqJFHOGxsZNxYUDfFLdXvVCqp6W8EcTRKvORID86eLrtGpGrJkZps_42wAd_tprUrZ9bHQFoKEQuemiRemmkBfNBdAqhYZhxBd0Pz0N6F1KV6mmmJ6pkmBwfJ/w640-h640/covid%20death%20rates%20vs%20GQP.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-59630118721122434652024-03-12T19:02:00.003+11:002024-03-12T19:02:16.553+11:00Australian air fares halved when three carriers fly a route<br /> From <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/30/australian-air-fares-halved-when-three-carriers-rather-than-one-fly-route-data-reveals" target="_blank">The Guardian<br /></a><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Ticket prices are halved when three airlines fly a route compared with a monopoly situation and fares fall further as more rivals are added, according to new findings designed to inform Australia’s competition and merger laws.<br /><br />The assistant competition minister, Andrew Leigh, will tell a Melbourne audience on Tuesday there are worrying signs that competition intensity has weakened over recent decades, with evidence of increased market concentration and profit markups in several industries.<br /><br />The airline industry, led by Qantas, is among those sectors where subdued competition leads to elevated prices for customers with limited flight options, according to an advance copy of Leigh’s speech.<br /><br />“For example, for a resident of Darwin, it is often cheaper to fly from Darwin to Singapore than it is to fly from Darwin to Sydney – even though the international flight is longer than the domestic one,” Leigh will tell the Chifley Research Centre event.<br /><br />The government’s newly formed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/23/cost-of-living-crisis-what-is-albanese-government-doing-taskforce-expert-panel-competition-review-inflation-prices-economy">competition taskforce</a> has found that when one airline services a route, air fares average 39.6c per kilometre. The price is more than halved to 19.2c when three competitors fly a route.<br /><br />With four or five competitors, the price drops further, according to analysis of the top 200 routes by passenger traffic.<br /><br />Qantas has previously cited high jet fuel prices and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/30/why-australians-are-paying-50-more-for-air-fares-than-pre-pandemic-even-as-jet-fuel-costs-drop">disruptions to supply chains</a> for high air fares, while noting ticket prices were moderating.<br /><br />The speech comes amid renewed political scrutiny of tightly held industries that could be leading to higher-than-necessary prices for consumers during a cost-of-living crisis.<br /><br />The government announced last week that supermarkets will be targeted in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/25/anthony-albanese-announces-year-long-investigation-into-supermarket-prices-by-accc?CMP=soc_568">price investigation</a> by the competition watchdog.<br /><br />Australia’s food retailing sector is dominated by Coles and Woolworths, which over many years acquired dozens of competitors, including McIlwraiths, Bi-Lo and Flemings, and pushed out rivals such as Selfridges and Franklins to become the dominant players.</b></span></blockquote><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgIeHWj1Aq_608VYYuxrU_6LrLEJhGg8lm-lr-_JCB4Qpzf9iGPTASo7NpjBpS3y594rLOPB79uzyEX3FWQpe_aEkHyhGhIjmmAoqU2oZlbWGZ821E2-kZfPJmzAKo2WCLZXWBYvEfpC3ytaGu0u2_cuO8ItCV6bHIL9c0h-qXQX6aCxbtQeQ6EgEJA0AnT"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgIeHWj1Aq_608VYYuxrU_6LrLEJhGg8lm-lr-_JCB4Qpzf9iGPTASo7NpjBpS3y594rLOPB79uzyEX3FWQpe_aEkHyhGhIjmmAoqU2oZlbWGZ821E2-kZfPJmzAKo2WCLZXWBYvEfpC3ytaGu0u2_cuO8ItCV6bHIL9c0h-qXQX6aCxbtQeQ6EgEJA0AnT=w640-h485" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Competition works. Good governments would make sure there was lots of it, instead of bowing down to monopolists. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-26142760689407952122024-03-12T17:59:00.004+11:002024-03-12T17:59:39.518+11:00Clever off-grid EV charger<br /><a href="https://www.pairedpower.com/pairtree" target="_blank">Paired Power</a> has come up with an off-grid EV charger powered by solar panels, which can be erected in just 4 hours. <br /><br />Getting EV chargers attached to the grid can be difficult. Often the grid operator will need to build a new substation, with new cabling to connect the charge station to the grid. This makes building out new chargers both time-consuming (as agreement between the charger service and the electricity utility is reached, and then the new infrastructure is installed) and expensive. <div><br /></div><div>But to add new solar panels to your roof is also tricky. The utility will want to prevent solar power at midday coming from all the houses in the street burning out the "poles and wires" that make up a suburban grid. And utility-scale solar farms face similar limitations, with output possibly having to be curtailed to prevent too much electricity entering the grid.<br /><br />Paired Power's solar EV charging system is designed to avoid both limitations.<div> <br /></div><blockquote><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>PairTree, the world’s first pop-up solar canopy, offers freedom from costly construction and infrastructure upgrades required by traditional solar canopy installation. <br /><br />Single-day installation gets you up and running quickly with 100% renewable energy.<br /><br />PairTree can be equipped with EV chargers and an integrated battery storage system.<br /><br />PairTree’s modular design is available in 5 kW units that capture more energy with bifacial solar panels. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>PairTree is designed to optimize charge rates to deliver 75 miles of average daily range to an EV, well above the U.S. national daily commuter average of 30 miles. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>For greater resiliency and reliability, PairTree also supports up to a 42.4 kWh battery storage system, extending the potential daily range delivered up to 230 miles.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Advantages:</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: courier;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Fast deployment and installation</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Lowest cost, no utility bill</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Emergency resilient power during grid outages</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>24/7 EV charging</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Eligible for incentives [40% under the IRA]</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Optional grid connection</b></span></li></ul><div></div></div></blockquote><div><div>Depending on how big a battery you choose to install, the product provides between ~125 and ~380 km of range, and can operate between -7 and +49 C. Cost ranges between US$28,000 and $78,000 depending on battery size and the number of chargers (2 max).</div><div><br /></div><div>There's a time-lapse video <a href="https://www.pairedpower.com/pairtree" target="_blank">on the firm's website</a> which shows the combined solar canopy and charger being installed in 4 hours.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2yjcvkROIvOkpPHQ7o6-c5cPdU3XLJOa8F3ExiQv4SNAjfNtK2zx_BGU3WbhggnnqIEPixL_hzmmb7YW-8ZzF4mWy95grep844vuod44ksFdDvuEyqHkTGDUUGDn5VVDMxYGsjHcdE7qZT0-6zMZ1VDkuVT0D-TC9-gDU0XD9c6M9Rma04BPZ2Vr0TRZl/s1707/pairtree%20solar%20ev%20charger.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="1707" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2yjcvkROIvOkpPHQ7o6-c5cPdU3XLJOa8F3ExiQv4SNAjfNtK2zx_BGU3WbhggnnqIEPixL_hzmmb7YW-8ZzF4mWy95grep844vuod44ksFdDvuEyqHkTGDUUGDn5VVDMxYGsjHcdE7qZT0-6zMZ1VDkuVT0D-TC9-gDU0XD9c6M9Rma04BPZ2Vr0TRZl/w640-h330/pairtree%20solar%20ev%20charger.webp" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-75014699245925774792024-03-11T23:15:00.004+11:002024-03-11T23:15:46.126+11:00US employment data remain strong<p>There are random fluctuations in any time series, which can cloud one's perception of the current status quo. The old "signal-to-noise" problem. </p><p>It seems to me, though, that the change in <i>employment</i> is accelerating, while the change in <i>unemployment</i> (inverted because it is inversely related to economic activity) is still improving, despite February's jump in the unemployment rate (which, remember, is shown as a fall because it's plotted inverted). </p><p>Overtime hours (very sensitive to the cycle) are rising, in line with the QCI (my monthly GDP proxy). </p><p>Latest datum for each time series is February, except for the QCI which is January.</p><p>My conclusion: despite the fall in the ISM in February, the other "early indicators" (including the PMI) all point up. </p><p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_VO8A_f2g4mBY1PCaxi0I5BCh4J5-YlXA2Pkbbs1UjAX0aVqUjFrheIjc_5cFGK19yOCzAr47HePkzG0FRUbA-dbsfdHxIgkeI2m8k5s8kk7n4GRIVqdjjJQCv0ohJ1riI1BvPJ69tPQ5hG_LvJ4zAyhy2yq5_ZZTGQ34Ej3wW64XhqWYV1VbRG4GcJex" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="861" data-original-width="788" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_VO8A_f2g4mBY1PCaxi0I5BCh4J5-YlXA2Pkbbs1UjAX0aVqUjFrheIjc_5cFGK19yOCzAr47HePkzG0FRUbA-dbsfdHxIgkeI2m8k5s8kk7n4GRIVqdjjJQCv0ohJ1riI1BvPJ69tPQ5hG_LvJ4zAyhy2yq5_ZZTGQ34Ej3wW64XhqWYV1VbRG4GcJex=w587-h640" width="587" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAG6ivQIxcvlestXcaAT4elKzXSA9RAhKskFdzaKwlX5UTIG33_F98yFPf4q5YkWR37sFTemo5-gpqfrk-Pa4YjM2liLDQFj6kqpSggd02XKlIjSahVnqDCR8vaYJBRLJKDXMdVmTH4he1lsuAJ0OwYz5rwANuv87YUpX3aI3acXaeLk2nTt8NPzTgZS-v" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="787" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAG6ivQIxcvlestXcaAT4elKzXSA9RAhKskFdzaKwlX5UTIG33_F98yFPf4q5YkWR37sFTemo5-gpqfrk-Pa4YjM2liLDQFj6kqpSggd02XKlIjSahVnqDCR8vaYJBRLJKDXMdVmTH4he1lsuAJ0OwYz5rwANuv87YUpX3aI3acXaeLk2nTt8NPzTgZS-v=w587-h640" width="587" /></a></div><p><br /></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHbv1S3g31td4AyhUQ7_Y1juITzVfhrithp16ZKZhyncLqAIf1q86pUB1gaNHdJsjj3B1JkhfC2PPJC-qAq_muv2V715a-vPLowvBPOCKxz6HBkb0XINP4Kj4F8-49s-LIB2n-AoiRamK33piNKdOFQwrPotB4RAil6Ahsg3HjxGFRiVDrD-SUomn1PTbr" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="1457" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHbv1S3g31td4AyhUQ7_Y1juITzVfhrithp16ZKZhyncLqAIf1q86pUB1gaNHdJsjj3B1JkhfC2PPJC-qAq_muv2V715a-vPLowvBPOCKxz6HBkb0XINP4Kj4F8-49s-LIB2n-AoiRamK33piNKdOFQwrPotB4RAil6Ahsg3HjxGFRiVDrD-SUomn1PTbr=w640-h402" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-24024032499560551052024-03-11T10:23:00.005+11:002024-03-11T10:23:57.052+11:00Clean energy top driver of China’s growth in 2023<br /> From <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-was-top-driver-of-chinas-economic-growth-in-2023/" target="_blank">Carbon Brief</a><br /><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Clean energy contributed a record 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to China’s economy in 2023, accounting for all of the growth in investment and a larger share of economic growth than any other sector.<br /><br />The new sector-by-sector analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, illustrates the huge surge in investment in Chinese clean energy last year – in particular, the so-called “<a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/business/new-three-china-solar-cell-lithium-battery-ev/">new three</a>” industries of solar power, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.<br /><br />Solar power, along with manufacturing capacity for solar panels, EVs and batteries, were the main focus of China’s clean-energy investments in 2023, the analysis shows.<br /><br />(For this analysis, we used a broad definition of “clean energy” sectors, including renewables, nuclear power, electricity grids, energy storage, EVs and railways. These are technologies and infrastructure needed to decarbonise China’s production and use of energy.)<br /><br />Other key findings of the analysis include:</b></span><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Clean-energy investment rose 40% year-on-year to 6.3tn yuan ($890bn), with the growth accounting for all of the investment growth across the Chinese economy in 2023.</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>China’s $890bn investment in clean-energy sectors is almost as large as total <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023">global investments</a> in fossil fuel supply in 2023 – and similar to the GDP of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2022&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=2022&view=bar">Switzerland or Turkey</a>.</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Including the value of production, clean-energy sectors contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to the Chinese economy in 2023, up 30% year-on-year.</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Clean-energy sectors, as a result, were the largest driver of China’ economic growth overall, accounting for 40% of the expansion of GDP in 2023.</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Without the growth from clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have missed the government’s growth target of “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-gdp-economy-recovery-uneven-69b0f33cbff392d9e1e2cac08f751c1d">around 5%</a>”, rising by only 3.0% instead of <a href="https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202401/content_6926714.htm">5.2%</a>.</b></span></li></ul></div></blockquote><p><br /></p><p> As usual with Carbon Brief, the article has a detailed analysis. You can read more <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-was-top-driver-of-chinas-economic-growth-in-2023/" target="_blank">here</a>. The table and the charts below are from the report.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgYkquUvERbeViLEFIl_hgFUA5hGjvUygIaRwUJw46k6y85D5QhteJGd5tBoPaeo-SkEN9e0B2vBAxSgIghOT9stdl--Mw8kve49hPe1ATtKzDEKjveZjex98VS7Chz9W3Kl3wvw4ujvO42t6dZAEfyKSjx22O6RU0gkLUeFKBQL2GG27KGC6iRtfO6LWqw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="713" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgYkquUvERbeViLEFIl_hgFUA5hGjvUygIaRwUJw46k6y85D5QhteJGd5tBoPaeo-SkEN9e0B2vBAxSgIghOT9stdl--Mw8kve49hPe1ATtKzDEKjveZjex98VS7Chz9W3Kl3wvw4ujvO42t6dZAEfyKSjx22O6RU0gkLUeFKBQL2GG27KGC6iRtfO6LWqw=w576-h640" width="576" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwrnbFFkWYhKkk32FIk2CGuNtFI9DO9xxv1I5qhx3QzsVpxZUG2S-aSuyLhPt1pjQBjCudO14lYhk3nuSCq7mconlPZ9i2YarkImKDvxoaUC-TXgIemsjFZ73B0qb2S-5YLazJqAImJ5POB05Pql66bYBkmEWEPRuOFjzjdVyjXP2QCyqEgoLrlJ2ZfduD" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="753" data-original-width="1030" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwrnbFFkWYhKkk32FIk2CGuNtFI9DO9xxv1I5qhx3QzsVpxZUG2S-aSuyLhPt1pjQBjCudO14lYhk3nuSCq7mconlPZ9i2YarkImKDvxoaUC-TXgIemsjFZ73B0qb2S-5YLazJqAImJ5POB05Pql66bYBkmEWEPRuOFjzjdVyjXP2QCyqEgoLrlJ2ZfduD=w640-h468" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEipwEZfb9QAoBR9ijnra-gwnye7f5530vBzBcIbIedoTRcI0pdlFRtpe0L4OY7BWPxBaOnTJrTm-CnEUNuNA1txP_EWyr8exGhtX0Si2HnMeBCzkkFYZrFNAhBDdVjz00zLnXs-lfrh8LVh1ROuZkxGGnh_QzAkIkZcMsJmP_XPvmnsuHnb27W3B08y4y4u" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="976" height="505" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEipwEZfb9QAoBR9ijnra-gwnye7f5530vBzBcIbIedoTRcI0pdlFRtpe0L4OY7BWPxBaOnTJrTm-CnEUNuNA1txP_EWyr8exGhtX0Si2HnMeBCzkkFYZrFNAhBDdVjz00zLnXs-lfrh8LVh1ROuZkxGGnh_QzAkIkZcMsJmP_XPvmnsuHnb27W3B08y4y4u=w640-h505" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSV6nbiGVYECFAP_hZ40VBYoReil4VpBo_6-lMoAxa2JzFXwuxwFALFB8WGOGCVl6cKV8bd4FrKpNehXZ-LVEBA4K4VOkLGBEIk4zdq-Cot56VLee7hHgAeMG-Z873B_wXhjrX3xKTcfXm0Jkk7MjF6ASi49zBH0Yz0Pily8ANUfKBn6jrDamfnm-mQpA6" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1029" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSV6nbiGVYECFAP_hZ40VBYoReil4VpBo_6-lMoAxa2JzFXwuxwFALFB8WGOGCVl6cKV8bd4FrKpNehXZ-LVEBA4K4VOkLGBEIk4zdq-Cot56VLee7hHgAeMG-Z873B_wXhjrX3xKTcfXm0Jkk7MjF6ASi49zBH0Yz0Pily8ANUfKBn6jrDamfnm-mQpA6=w640-h396" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8jXsoLkM9ZA9UyIDv6-fMlWQjZw72wKp1bozQnJooBEOqLk3h9XsetyRjRL1_P7LeMcrBhHtDwUDfmF1YUiqfaZVcSJpa8Yy7wQZ5I1TFNSqt1S5J87M72PjnFHiRiANNjeMEYi0Ij2ujqEtxDF10KuU5WoOTA3hxzpnGNcbVcdlD5ewUGKez5IMJunHV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="945" height="483" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8jXsoLkM9ZA9UyIDv6-fMlWQjZw72wKp1bozQnJooBEOqLk3h9XsetyRjRL1_P7LeMcrBhHtDwUDfmF1YUiqfaZVcSJpa8Yy7wQZ5I1TFNSqt1S5J87M72PjnFHiRiANNjeMEYi0Ij2ujqEtxDF10KuU5WoOTA3hxzpnGNcbVcdlD5ewUGKez5IMJunHV=w640-h483" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br />The next time somebody complains that China isn't doing its bit to cut emissions, refer them to the charts above, and also that renewables are making a huge positive impact on China's growth. This is a lesson the rabid right has yet to learn.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-9809920608523618712024-03-11T09:04:00.000+11:002024-03-11T09:04:02.546+11:00Sea temperatures literally off the scale<p> From <a href="https://mstdn.social/@rustoleumlove@mastodon.online/112073353808151089" target="_blank">a toot by 'Anne Ominous'</a>.</p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: courier;"><b></b></span></p><blockquote><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>After sustained record sea surface temperatures, Climate Reanalyzer has again adjusted the scale of their Y axis on the SST graph to a maximum of 21.5ºC (it was recently a max of 21.2ºC)</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Average SST is now at an all-time record high - on March 9, 2024 = 21.2ºC</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>(this is also happening even as El Niño is getting weaker)</b></span></p></blockquote><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: courier;"><b></b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: mastodon-font-sans-serif, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: mastodon-font-sans-serif, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-IqgWiEd6jS9vVrfRtv8elADkIMrbHvTHGvSD1MDeM_bROR6oHFEzOQgl-ya7_30PihjicGtxU5b9Dpv8RzTiP0kf8cum9-bnUrU_h0uhEO9DMg2jTIrou4huooJeDf676sw5lMaxGfzfJcwuePPKYDKUdTBZDdytK_I9IyLnG1gxmOHEjZpAShXxorXE/s942/daily%20sea%20surface%20temperature.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="715" data-original-width="942" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-IqgWiEd6jS9vVrfRtv8elADkIMrbHvTHGvSD1MDeM_bROR6oHFEzOQgl-ya7_30PihjicGtxU5b9Dpv8RzTiP0kf8cum9-bnUrU_h0uhEO9DMg2jTIrou4huooJeDf676sw5lMaxGfzfJcwuePPKYDKUdTBZDdytK_I9IyLnG1gxmOHEjZpAShXxorXE/w640-h486/daily%20sea%20surface%20temperature.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Solid black line = this year's temperatures<br />Orange line = last year's<br />Dotted line = 1982 2011 average<br />Dashed line = = or minus 2 sigma</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: mastodon-font-sans-serif, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yet still we dither and phaff. <b>WE ARE NOT DOING ENOUGH TO SLASH EMISSIONS</b>. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How many more warnings must we get before we act decisively?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: mastodon-font-sans-serif, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: mastodon-font-sans-serif, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; unicode-bidi: plaintext; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-66981381007788561212024-03-10T17:37:00.003+11:002024-03-10T17:37:33.382+11:00More than 50% of world PMI indices are now rising<p> These two apparently similar charts show different things. </p><p>The first shows my world manufacturing PMI index (green) with a diffusion index of the 53 component countries' PMIs (orange). A diffusion index measures how many of the selected time series are rising, and how many falling. At 0, all are falling, at 100, all are rising, and at 50 --- well you get the picture.</p><p>What this chart shows is that 70% of the PMIs I monitor are rising. It <i>doesn't</i> mean that they are above the 50% recession line. For example, Austria's PMI has risen from 38.8 in July to 43 in February. So Austria's economy is still deteriorating, just more slowly. A diffusion index tends to lead the underlying data, as you can see in the chart. The rising diffusion index suggests that the PMI will keep on rising, for now, which means it will soon cross the 50% "recession line".</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFLWwb2WRp1V_amGKq-yg22xYHIvwxWoF25YZWcwj0sWl3BGpyhyG7DvKqbDu0bERq9ciTyAtYgn5CY8DPzMHzOB9vJON5-znVbrh6DMcPQoY2tfkUf5ZZDW9aeQ9OjCGG7SDcaL8G6t6zPeixElc2994sV9hoxcCrOxPgtZu5f34dW4SCsu3azwK-_pk8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="862" data-original-width="640" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFLWwb2WRp1V_amGKq-yg22xYHIvwxWoF25YZWcwj0sWl3BGpyhyG7DvKqbDu0bERq9ciTyAtYgn5CY8DPzMHzOB9vJON5-znVbrh6DMcPQoY2tfkUf5ZZDW9aeQ9OjCGG7SDcaL8G6t6zPeixElc2994sV9hoxcCrOxPgtZu5f34dW4SCsu3azwK-_pk8=w475-h640" width="475" /></a></div><br />This chart shows the percentage of monitored PMIs which are above 50%. Note that this <i>coincides</i> with my world PMI index. More than half the countries I monitor have PMIs below 50%, which means that more than half still have weakening economies, even if they're declining more slowly.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMqK7ZQAYJyfjkbQ-veDmBCMztLU3Kv7yXM0sGDAO59atRbV2Uh9PiJV4qHMFRQBKmcmJ784vTaaCqhR_MrlApGLq0GE1PYmioQdjoB99LNLI9WrikQvyhFKRMC7n1i0UqZzcD1PJi5vp7zWPm5MGX6jmMvcekUXxSZ-NmcJD4od3ccWktZsnzWv_GpLbJ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="865" data-original-width="635" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMqK7ZQAYJyfjkbQ-veDmBCMztLU3Kv7yXM0sGDAO59atRbV2Uh9PiJV4qHMFRQBKmcmJ784vTaaCqhR_MrlApGLq0GE1PYmioQdjoB99LNLI9WrikQvyhFKRMC7n1i0UqZzcD1PJi5vp7zWPm5MGX6jmMvcekUXxSZ-NmcJD4od3ccWktZsnzWv_GpLbJ=w469-h640" width="469" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>For non-initiates, this can be a bit confusing. After all, the PMI indices (and most business confidence indices) are themselves diffusion indices! So, jumping to the conclusions:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>PMI surveys tend to lead the economic cycle.</li><li>when they rise above 50%, they show that their economy is growing</li><li>the majority of PMI indices are rising, and the trends shown in chart 1 suggest that will continue</li><li>but the majority of PMIs are also still below the 50% "recession line", showing that the world economy is not yet accelerating.</li></ul><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-50719772268135184492024-03-10T12:17:00.007+11:002024-03-10T15:21:47.893+11:00World GDP growth about to turn up<p>February PMI indices have been released for all the economies for which I keep PMI data, so I have been able to calculate world PMI.</p><p>The chart below shows my calculation of the world PMI index compared with my calculation of the year-on-year percentage change in world real GDP. For both time series, I have used PPP (purchasing power parity) GDP to estimate country weights.</p><p>World GDP growth has been higher than I expected, for two reasons. The first is massive fiscal stimulus in the USA, the second is "revenge spending" on services after Covid lockdowns stopped holidays, eating out, social gatherings, etc. As the impacts of both slowly tail off, the acceleration in world GDP might not be as pronounced as the turn up in world PMI suggests.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZUUeDleAur_Z-YBAfjjKycDbUEu3mC3uXbeC_0zxu3zOhJvcLHBWFXxru1D7X23UgSg2M-u8uS3fuhoSRvkcsVl-W3xZFk2RjYKhXm4fAiubZAuAfsYVK7DUNibWhTQgs_DToJQorhHJeixXBIY3peYyKVYiGXnGbe2KutFxm0vornWTMl10Qb9pwNLrU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="747" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZUUeDleAur_Z-YBAfjjKycDbUEu3mC3uXbeC_0zxu3zOhJvcLHBWFXxru1D7X23UgSg2M-u8uS3fuhoSRvkcsVl-W3xZFk2RjYKhXm4fAiubZAuAfsYVK7DUNibWhTQgs_DToJQorhHJeixXBIY3peYyKVYiGXnGbe2KutFxm0vornWTMl10Qb9pwNLrU=w557-h640" width="557" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-40269010169369819882024-03-10T10:43:00.005+11:002024-03-10T10:43:37.951+11:002 million hectares of Queensland forest destroyed<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1EPnRrY4R8u_pj9wW3vrYMdpaX9TCroEEtJvPDjjFI8IUrljlMA9B5uyzghcR-6vskSR9zo0wyIKRP1QbX-rJFvxi4xQU0IElzppKBGt3V284JIfo6ajNjiEOZlDv2j0mOUeLoE8YIL2cZI41x0O-M-qOyYBLzcDIr1-5J4KHQbYX2jzwwAvct7cmOZJ4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="536" data-original-width="807" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh1EPnRrY4R8u_pj9wW3vrYMdpaX9TCroEEtJvPDjjFI8IUrljlMA9B5uyzghcR-6vskSR9zo0wyIKRP1QbX-rJFvxi4xQU0IElzppKBGt3V284JIfo6ajNjiEOZlDv2j0mOUeLoE8YIL2cZI41x0O-M-qOyYBLzcDIr1-5J4KHQbYX2jzwwAvct7cmOZJ4=w640-h426" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p> From <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/06/queensland-land-clearing-deforestation-data-analysis" target="_blank">The Guardian</a></p><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>More than 2m hectares (4.94m acres) of bushland in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/queensland">Queensland</a> that included large swathes of possible koala habitat has been cleared over a five-year period, new analysis shows.<br /><br />The research, commissioned by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/greenpeace">Greenpeace</a> and conducted by the University of Queensland academic Martin Taylor, found almost all land clearing that occurred in the state between 2016 and 2021 was in areas where threatened species habitat was “likely to occur”.<br /><br />Almost two-thirds of the cleared area, or 1.3m hectares, was marked by the Queensland government as “category x”, meaning it was exempt from state vegetation laws that regulate land clearing. Some 500,000 hectares of that land was koala habitat, the report said.<br /><br />Taylor, an adjunct professor at the University of Queensland and former WWF-Australia conservation scientist, conducted the analysis by comparing state government land clearing data to federally mapped areas of environmental significance.<br /><br />The majority of recorded land clearing occurred in regrowth forest that was more than 15 years old, which Taylor said made it capable of providing rich habitat for native animals.<br /><br />“Industry voices like to say this is just controlling knee-high regrowth, so it’s just vegetation management,” he said. “[But] a 15-year-old eucalypt forest can be at least 10 to 15 metres high – they are forests.”<br /><br />Taylor said that while laws in Queensland allow for regrowth forests to be reclassified as remnant once they mature, the requirements to do so are unclear.<br /><br />“A lot of regrowth 15 years and older could have already become what they define as remnant, making it more difficult to clear,” he said.<br /><br />Gemma Plesman, a senior campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said the report documented deforestation on a “frightening” scale. She said the state’s annual <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/land/management/mapping/statewide-monitoring/slats/slats-reports/2019-20-slats-report/key-findings">statewide land cover and tree study</a> (Slats) shows land clearing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/16/calls-for-tougher-regulations-as-queensland-records-highest-rate-of-land-clearing-in-country#:~:text=1%20year%20old-,Calls%20for%20tougher%20regulations%20as%20Queensland%20records,of%20land%20clearing%20in%20country&text=Queensland%20continues%20to%20record%20the,according%20to%20new%20government%20data.">was driven by beef production</a>.<br /><br />According to the beef industry, more than 10m cattle graze on Queensland pastures, making it the biggest beef producing state in the country.<br /><br />“Fast food chains and retailers should be aware that the beef they are selling could come from properties that have bulldozed koala habitat with no government oversight,” Plesman said.<br /><br />Plesman said <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/22/new-australian-environment-laws-would-not-stop-widespread-deforestation-organisations-say">environmental law reforms being developed by the federal government</a> needed to address concerns around deforestation in Queensland to be effective.<br /><br />“This shocking data should be a wake-up call,” she said. “They must address what has made Australia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/13/australia-the-only-developed-nation-on-world-list-of-deforestation-hotspots">a global hotspot for deforestation</a>.”<br /><br />The Wilderness Society Queensland campaign manager, Hannah Schuch, said deforestation in Queensland was driving biodiversity loss.<br /><br />“It’s having an impact on iconic native species like the koala, the greater glider, the red goshawk, it’s tearing down their homes and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/18/road-to-extinction-koalas-could-soon-be-listed-an-endangered-in-swathes-of-eastern-australia">pushing them towards extinction</a>,” she said.<br /><br />“We know that erosion and sediment runoff from deforestation is another threat to the already at-risk Great Barrier Reef,” she said.<br /><br />A spokesperson for the federal environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, said the government was in the consultation process to develop new national environment laws. However, three organisations familiar with the draft laws say they would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/22/new-australian-environment-laws-would-not-stop-widespread-deforestation-organisations-say">continue to allow widespread deforestation</a>.<br /><br />Michael Guerin, the chief executive of Queensland farming body AgForce, questioned the accuracy of the Slats data which was used in Taylor’s analysis. He said deforestation rates were overstated. [Of course he did]<br /><br />He suggested there should be an on-the-ground survey to confirm deforestation rates. [which is much more expensive and not necessarily more accurate. In fact aerial surveys often miss small areas of clearing, meaning the real total could be higher.]<br /><br />“Let’s come out and ground truth it,” Guerin said. “Let’s get out on the landscape and spend the money and time so we’re confident about what’s happening. The industry and community is up for that.” [yeah, right]</b></span></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>Australia's "decline" in emissions is solely due to LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) There have already been questions and accusations that the data are dodgy. One claim is that partially cleared land is not picked up by the satellites; only fully cleared land is. This latest analysis simply adds to the evidence. </p><p>Oh, and I beg you: <a href="https://volewica.blogspot.com/search?q=beef" target="_blank">stop eating beef</a>. </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-52529410581303367092024-03-05T09:27:00.000+11:002024-03-05T09:27:31.375+11:00US upturn gathers pace<p> To disentangle the signal from the noise, I have first extreme-adjusted the individual time series (the ISM and the PMI survey data time series) and then I have averaged them. Extreme-adjustment is an algorithm which removes or reduces the impact of extreme events. In particular, over this period, it reduces the impact of the Covid Crash in early 2020. In addition, averaging two statistically independent series reduces the random fluctuation (error term) in the resulting index. Both these techniques reduce the "spikiness" of the time series, making the chart easier to read.</p><p>Right now, the PMI is giving a more robust picture of the US economy, and the ISM survey a slightly weaker view. This pattern has been the other way around in the past, for example in 2017/18. But the line to watch remains the thick green one. It points to a renewed upturn, as the economy shakes off the impact of the Fed's policy tightening, as government spending and private investment on the back of IRA tax incentives push the economy forward.</p><p>Good news for Biden's re-election. But it also means that the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates, until it gets evidence that inflation is continuing to decline.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgciDjoXvpkxQd3WOASHsQrdx61JkMbyydXHxKvwMW623u60Sut6VC1ay_SgeytvNAmM-_SIgNpn4EieINE9ge9hMBEe95HXfHH5qyDuwkptx8O5D3DRS3R3RcSJD9mFwXzBpEVgGZ-GMSLJWDc0GTOc3wDH8X0IYDv7hIWzXQbmvAIvBDRMs4vaw-iJP2q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="851" data-original-width="816" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgciDjoXvpkxQd3WOASHsQrdx61JkMbyydXHxKvwMW623u60Sut6VC1ay_SgeytvNAmM-_SIgNpn4EieINE9ge9hMBEe95HXfHH5qyDuwkptx8O5D3DRS3R3RcSJD9mFwXzBpEVgGZ-GMSLJWDc0GTOc3wDH8X0IYDv7hIWzXQbmvAIvBDRMs4vaw-iJP2q=w613-h640" width="613" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-14740621895899076432024-03-05T08:22:00.003+11:002024-03-05T08:22:18.588+11:00MAGA Supreme Court rules Trump can't be removed from the ballot<p> The US Supreme Court, by this decision, loses all credibility. The US is turning into a failed state.</p><p><br /></p><h1 class="dcr-1m6z4y2" style="--source-text-decoration-thickness: 4px; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #121212; font-family: "GH Guardian Headline", "Guardian Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 2.125rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.15; margin: 0px; padding: 4px 0px 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/04/trump-scotus-colorado-ruling" target="_blank">Trump was wrongly removed from Colorado ballot, US supreme court rules</a></h1><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Cartoon by Dave Granlund</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkj8pVzsMa3aNEocVxt61on5FK_StGXIHouqcCPBmlcYQQ3v5GPdOUOLC2IlrJOcnTFf3dblN2Uu437Y7G_OX2-Mw1oZyLdfentVrnQOlnmWmovHJ8YUyWhrc3KQ_ZOec316EHxwNJvhCuplM9UUz8afFQU8BBThPrSGR2Y_FxKvzYVarMZYT6tIb-Ek-C/s562/campaign%20HQ%20dave%20granlund.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="562" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkj8pVzsMa3aNEocVxt61on5FK_StGXIHouqcCPBmlcYQQ3v5GPdOUOLC2IlrJOcnTFf3dblN2Uu437Y7G_OX2-Mw1oZyLdfentVrnQOlnmWmovHJ8YUyWhrc3KQ_ZOec316EHxwNJvhCuplM9UUz8afFQU8BBThPrSGR2Y_FxKvzYVarMZYT6tIb-Ek-C/w640-h466/campaign%20HQ%20dave%20granlund.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-32579788016711689912024-03-05T00:15:00.000+11:002024-03-05T00:15:05.611+11:00World economic upturn strengthens <p> The Big 8 (US, UK, Euro zone, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, India) average manufacturing PMI rose again in February. It is till below, just, the 50% "recession line", but its rise is nevertheless clear. I expect it to cross 50% this month, which will signal the beginning of the global manufacturing business cycle. (Services are already rising, but we won't have the final services PMIs for another few days)</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-AK3sT47fxDMVrYRO8uHeCKRs2LZuw6aVGj8tqL7U5Gxn9hf-svBuBTcEHf8GrLFuDa2ZVRgfGl5CLC8gnCYN0Nr8HukyUosTE5CXzqFS_v99OMGuVMgFtOaICKDb1Vx_ynOftSuYsurDHDfNAjteq2Ljn66NOg_Lg30pXnK46gORFGq92zywhOkp7GHa" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1116" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-AK3sT47fxDMVrYRO8uHeCKRs2LZuw6aVGj8tqL7U5Gxn9hf-svBuBTcEHf8GrLFuDa2ZVRgfGl5CLC8gnCYN0Nr8HukyUosTE5CXzqFS_v99OMGuVMgFtOaICKDb1Vx_ynOftSuYsurDHDfNAjteq2Ljn66NOg_Lg30pXnK46gORFGq92zywhOkp7GHa=w640-h478" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-49556731197510901642024-03-04T10:19:00.002+11:002024-03-04T10:19:21.127+11:00Satan and Trump <p> <a href="https://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/2024/03/03" target="_blank">Doonesbury (Garry Trudeau)</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6DDKNtnOuqxlObK6IuC9xE9GcBagJ3Z9ODXM37L0I855mlOPAs1gqpyqhAmnGKGz6N6XblL4lb6hM3EYv2wNjaOttWxdmZiPJQHG9YNwEmApcPO9eqxgrssOlAAChV9HzWANtCb7QZ4B68WlbhrJbsAyL5uhv5rIcuCYhL60oBkr-SIBpx-jBVA80sYx-/s1200/trump%20and%20satan%20doonesbury.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="865" height="887" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6DDKNtnOuqxlObK6IuC9xE9GcBagJ3Z9ODXM37L0I855mlOPAs1gqpyqhAmnGKGz6N6XblL4lb6hM3EYv2wNjaOttWxdmZiPJQHG9YNwEmApcPO9eqxgrssOlAAChV9HzWANtCb7QZ4B68WlbhrJbsAyL5uhv5rIcuCYhL60oBkr-SIBpx-jBVA80sYx-/w462-h640/trump%20and%20satan%20doonesbury.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-29066898784191782972024-03-04T10:00:00.009+11:002024-03-04T10:00:51.270+11:00Dominos<p>By <a href="https://www.facebook.com/AndrePcote/" target="_blank">André-Philippe Côté</a>, a Canadian cartoonist.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB4zqP-IZcxpDoeITEUhPRxmDazx5kRRY5gNAfdfp37EDQJzZ0Wc8DnpMp3neYRO0jG5AQB8FIzEnQfT4LRsddcFE15UQqu0Vg5gCTAxvajJlNEqUYumC8V5lxY3zmYV6u-M9xxy1UUT5gw11ivCJ1wRm-Ri3Paulh5WQVFNH6YpFH8ewlRLJtySEpsfIf/s517/dominos%20cote.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="517" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB4zqP-IZcxpDoeITEUhPRxmDazx5kRRY5gNAfdfp37EDQJzZ0Wc8DnpMp3neYRO0jG5AQB8FIzEnQfT4LRsddcFE15UQqu0Vg5gCTAxvajJlNEqUYumC8V5lxY3zmYV6u-M9xxy1UUT5gw11ivCJ1wRm-Ri3Paulh5WQVFNH6YpFH8ewlRLJtySEpsfIf/w640-h550/dominos%20cote.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-53653029484580349982024-02-26T00:20:00.006+11:002024-02-26T00:28:08.947+11:00US import volumes recovering<p> The old saying is, "when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold". What they mean by this is that if the US economy slows, the rest of the world does too, often by more. And, conversely, if the US economy picks up, it transmits its new strength to the rest of the world, too. </p><p>Import volumes into the US closely follow its economic cycle. Imports by the US are picking up, transmitting its recovery to the rest of the world.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIsbqLM0wjwmTxaTY2X-iuXksnREDNAg48pcHbUnlc1wkWGF4R3-UuIiqbhbdovpUYC4YDpV3C5ITjBaWVg4mjK4eXCNh4GpnwU6G1vFfGMsdBCQJESujMH8PpcGh8P7nqk8gdy2gNAfGKJG4TghS6nZ6lrPyQVSaymsYuYdIwG7nYjyg1llwhB-OdlWJk" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="1339" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIsbqLM0wjwmTxaTY2X-iuXksnREDNAg48pcHbUnlc1wkWGF4R3-UuIiqbhbdovpUYC4YDpV3C5ITjBaWVg4mjK4eXCNh4GpnwU6G1vFfGMsdBCQJESujMH8PpcGh8P7nqk8gdy2gNAfGKJG4TghS6nZ6lrPyQVSaymsYuYdIwG7nYjyg1llwhB-OdlWJk=w640-h438" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Both the ISM and import volumes are extreme-adjusted.<br />Import volumes are shown as a year-on-year % change.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Of course, because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, when the US tightens monetary, it slows the world economy. Other countries have to tighten policy too, or their currencies will fall. A strengthening US dollar has a negative impact on world growth. The US dollar strengthened by ~25% between January 2021 and October 2022, and has only fallen by 10% since then. With a few exceptions (India, Turkey, Russia and China*), the US is on the whole growing faster than most other G20 economies, and its indicators are turning up. (You can see the most recent growth rates in <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate" target="_blank">this handy interactive table</a> published by Trading Economics.)<p></p><p><br /></p><p>* China's official GDP growth tends to be overstated.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-1325611012282837082024-02-25T23:52:00.001+11:002024-02-25T23:52:23.260+11:00US consumers feeling more confident<p> Two time series in the chart below: consumer sentiment (from a survey by the University of Michigan) and consumer confidence (From the Conference Board).</p><p>They don't move in lockstep, but there are often periods when they move in line with each other. Both are now rising, consistent with the beginning of a new recovery.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjB5LRCZ0U62DNvRBlhMUCIikfVa4A29Hp8ap88svHLvhx3050A3lX2rkVmhD9d7UAtnSola2ix42SKe0If4tMwFEyWbpYFIDWipdGf6ZU8iPmHvteqW57jgHDudfBXtylzdAO4KNf9R68Fu7F9cugtDmHnpwF2ov6uTvJI-vPmn610GNUtiE8hkKHLHeb" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="918" data-original-width="1338" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjB5LRCZ0U62DNvRBlhMUCIikfVa4A29Hp8ap88svHLvhx3050A3lX2rkVmhD9d7UAtnSola2ix42SKe0If4tMwFEyWbpYFIDWipdGf6ZU8iPmHvteqW57jgHDudfBXtylzdAO4KNf9R68Fu7F9cugtDmHnpwF2ov6uTvJI-vPmn610GNUtiE8hkKHLHeb=w640-h440" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-11580876750366494282024-02-23T19:06:00.001+11:002024-02-23T19:06:46.197+11:00Why aren't we panicking?<p> I ended <a href="https://volewica.blogspot.com/2024/02/terrifying-acceleration-in-global.html" target="_blank">this post</a> by asking why we weren't panicking.</p><p>There is clear evidence that the rate at which global temperatures have been rising is speeding up. This massively reduces the time we have left to slash emissions before we are hit by catastrophic changes in the climate. Already average temperatures have risen 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial times, defined as 1850-1900. In the Paris Climate Accord, signed in December 2015, the world agreed to try to limit the rise in temperatures to 1.5 degrees. We are already there. Yes, I know, it's an El Niño year, and will be followed by La Niña years. So temperatures will cool, somewhat. But the trend, excluding the effects of El Niño/ La Niña oscillation (ENSO), volcanos, and the sunspot cycle, shows that temperatures are <i>clearly</i> accelerating: </p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvMLbxLXYhXokRASKmVzhMY2iaKhA8MeutOSbKhbNutbfdqlacfCaPjetaloBllMrQwoy7HYOgtiNJQmRMYl1GxFbEgsp4QhTLUA2PZjSc-dAZh5cqtow-U0MvNeuzLf_KN5SpycmDzwc4_EKoBmZh2GkXm3trk-GxyR_fUeZiC-WiLeUtZ1HNEL0CjWgD/s829/adjusted%20global%20data.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="829" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvMLbxLXYhXokRASKmVzhMY2iaKhA8MeutOSbKhbNutbfdqlacfCaPjetaloBllMrQwoy7HYOgtiNJQmRMYl1GxFbEgsp4QhTLUA2PZjSc-dAZh5cqtow-U0MvNeuzLf_KN5SpycmDzwc4_EKoBmZh2GkXm3trk-GxyR_fUeZiC-WiLeUtZ1HNEL0CjWgD/w640-h426/adjusted%20global%20data.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/adjusted-global-temperature-data/" target="_blank">Open Mind</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>It is possible that China's carbon emissions have peaked, given the extraordinary rapidity of its roll-out of renewables and the rapid expansion of EV sales. China emits 25% of the world's CO2, and while the USA's and Europe's emissions have been falling for decades (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA~OWID_EU27&Gas+or+Warming=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Territorial&Fuel+or+Land+Use+Change=All+fossil+emissions&Count=Per+country" target="_blank">the EU's peaked in 1979, and the USA's in 2005</a>), China's have nearly tripled over the last 20 years. If China's emissions <i>have</i> passed a structural peak, that will be very significant, and will mean that global emissions will have also peaked. </p><p>The problem is, however, that it's not enough for emissions to start falling for temperatures to stop rising. The <i>rise</i> in temperatures is proportional to the <i>level</i> of emissions. In other words, to stop temperatures rising, we will have to cut emissions to zero, or as near as dammit. (Note that "net-zero" involves using dodgy offsets to "remove" CO2 from the atmosphere. Even if it worked, it's not going to happen on the scale we need to avoid temperatures rising.) If we halved emissions over the next decade, yes, temperatures would rise more slowly. Perhaps we might cut the rise in temperatures by half, to 0.15 degrees C per decade. But they would still rise. And halving the level of emissions over the next decade would require a 7% per annum compound cut in emissions. That's not going to happen unless we go all out.</p><p>The public seems to be resigned to this catastrophe. Where is the fear? Where is the anger? Why aren't we nagging the soulcase out of our elected representatives to enact measures which will slash emissions? Why aren't we voting climate denialists out of office? My theory is that people are in despair. We know that disaster awaits, we feel powerless to help it, and it's too depressing to consider just how ghastly the world will be. So we avoid the topic. We get angry or irritable if others bring it up. We prefer to look at pictures of kittens or obsess about Taylor Swift rather than face up to the facts. </p><p>Suppose we did panic, and decided to take real action? What would we do?</p><p><br /></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li> We would set a target for 80% of electricity generation to be produced from renewables by 2030. Why not 100%? Because we're still not certain whether we can produce all the electricity we need from 100% renewables. We may, for example, need peaking gas to back up a wind and solar grid for a few weeks a year. Countries in high latitudes might need nuclear. When we get to 80% then we can reassess. This will cut emissions by 24%.</li><li>We would <i>immediately</i> ban the sale of new petrol-only cars and trucks. Hybrids use 40% less petrol than petrol-only cars in urban driving. Plug-in hybrids use 80% less. And obviously, EVs produce no direct tailpipe emissions. Second-hand petrol-only cars will still be sellable, but as they age they'll be scrapped, and the average emissions of the car/truck fleet would fall. After 5 years, we'd ban hybrids, leaving just plug-ins for sale. This will cut emissions over 20 years by 20%.</li><li>We would dramatically improve public transport. Instead of giant diesel buses coming every hour, we'd have small electric mini-buses coming every 5 or 10 minutes. It'll take a long time to build out new electric long distance high-speed and short-distance commuter lines, but we'd start now, and move as fast as we can.</li><li>All air travel below a certain distance would be banned---unless the planes were electric. Yes, flying from Sydney to Melbourne would involve three "legs" instead of a single jet-flight, but, hey, we've been here before. And we could ban long-distance air travel too. When I was a lightie, we didn't travel long distance by air, but by sea or train. To spare climate catastrophe, we may have to go there again.</li><li>All steel will have to be produced without coal, using green hydrogen or methane. (Cut emissions by 8%) </li><li>We will have to ration red meat. ~30% of emissions come from agriculture (including land clearing and methane from cows' burps and farts), and most of that comes from beef and mutton.</li><li>We would impose taxes on imports from countries who aren't also being serious about cutting emissions. </li></ol><div>Of course, none of this will happen. People will go on thinking that all they need to do is to recycle their rubbish. Give up beef? Are you out of your mind? Stop selling petrol cars? Communism! Give up my annual holiday in the Seychelles? Good grief, is a person to have no fun at all?</div><div><br /></div><div>So we will sleepwalk our way to catastrophe, because we are too fecking stupid to take the necessary steps to avoid it. It's not that we don't have the technology to slash emissions. It's that we don't have the will. We are too comatose, too dumb, too feeble to take meaningful action. </div><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>I have of late, (but wherefore I know not) lost all my mirth, forgone all custom of exercises; and indeed, it goes so heavily with my disposition; that this goodly frame the earth, seems to me a sterile promontory; this most excellent canopy the air, look you, this brave o'er hanging firmament, this majestical roof, fretted with golden fire: why, it appeareth no other thing to me, than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours. What a piece of work is a man, How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty, In form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an Angel, In apprehension how like a god, The beauty of the world, The paragon of animals. And yet to me, what is this quintessence of dust?</b></span></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-30020575580580089612024-02-23T17:21:00.004+11:002024-02-23T17:21:32.083+11:00Terrifying acceleration in global heating<p>Open Mind (Tamino) has <a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/adjusted-global-temperature-data/" target="_blank">again posted an analysis of global temperature data</a>, confirming that global temperatures are accelerating. I analysed <a href="https://volewica.blogspot.com/2024/02/global-warming-accelerates-to-03.html" target="_blank">his previous post here.</a></p><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Way back in 2011 I co-authored a paper with Stefan Rahmstorf (<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022/meta">Foster & Rahmstorf 2011</a>, hereafter FR11) in which we adjusted global temperature in order to remove (as best we could) the influence of factors we knew were only temporary, and not man-made. Specifically, these are volcanic eruptions (whose aerosols cool the planet), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which warms the world in its positive el Niño phase and cools in its negative la Niña phase), and solar variations (when the sun gets hotter or colder, so does the Earth). These exogenous factors make global temperature fluctuate, but don’t really get anywhere; removing their influence makes the global warming part clearer.<br /><br />I’ve updated my method for doing so, and extended the time span it covers, so I’d like to share some of the changes to methodology. But before I do I’ll cut right to the chase: doing so removes a lot of the fluctuation in global temperature, so that yearly averages since 1950, which look like this for five prominent global-temperature data sets:</b></span></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7y0XcWRnmuJYfk54keLSatIRBVYw-axkp01HGSzWjMiyFMBN8iwPyNKPHJx5mZX9-WIHF1936DeK3S65EbNl5pk1td8yBTwquUK5QxMWDUs2N71clzbzbarcRL5AYiti-UdBpZK8fFbtnVjEG0U16Gm6Esjp3vxkHp8Udhl-jUpAj8pgn9I2QRhGxpBZY/s829/raw%20global%20temp%20data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="829" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7y0XcWRnmuJYfk54keLSatIRBVYw-axkp01HGSzWjMiyFMBN8iwPyNKPHJx5mZX9-WIHF1936DeK3S65EbNl5pk1td8yBTwquUK5QxMWDUs2N71clzbzbarcRL5AYiti-UdBpZK8fFbtnVjEG0U16Gm6Esjp3vxkHp8Udhl-jUpAj8pgn9I2QRhGxpBZY/w640-h426/raw%20global%20temp%20data.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 14px;"></span></p><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>end up looking like this:</b></span></blockquote><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZs0UV4jdhkCe7hkaA4WbJF-nZhyphenhyphensBCKhc9HGuqlCS6S44tXI-NWdGqCHORLtqgiawRoWeievat46hLJrfVuzayJY976Cuk9V9RPRjG8-6fxuv18B4hhpe45vjQ4LZmsBH3d5KJTy6l8UFP7tByeSpxTFw_a_YK07LLWPMdODLtSyeSrTLQ-5hMLhUGEZl/s829/adjusted%20global%20data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="829" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZs0UV4jdhkCe7hkaA4WbJF-nZhyphenhyphensBCKhc9HGuqlCS6S44tXI-NWdGqCHORLtqgiawRoWeievat46hLJrfVuzayJY976Cuk9V9RPRjG8-6fxuv18B4hhpe45vjQ4LZmsBH3d5KJTy6l8UFP7tByeSpxTFw_a_YK07LLWPMdODLtSyeSrTLQ-5hMLhUGEZl/w640-h426/adjusted%20global%20data.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span><p></p><p>He then discusses his analytical technique in depth (read it <a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/adjusted-global-temperature-data/" target="_blank">here</a>). His conclusions are:</p><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>Perhaps the main result of FR11 was that the adjusted data showed no sign of acceleration or deceleration, contradicting ideas that global warming had stopped or even slowed; the evidence didn’t support that. But the new adjusted data do <i>not</i> contradict the recent acceleration which the raw data suggest, in fact they <i>confirm</i> it, mainly because the uncertainty in trend estimates is so greatly reduced that the rate change (acceleration) is easier to demonstrate statistically.<br /><br />Yes, it appears that the rate of global warming has increased.</b></span></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>We face catastrophe. You can clearly see how the slope of the (adjusted) temperature curve is steepening. It looks more like an exponential than a linear slope. In other words, <i>it could easily go on steepening</i>, with the decadal rise in temperature <i>accelerating</i> even further, from 0.3 to 0.4 or 0.5 degrees C over the next two decades. <i>Why aren't we panicking?</i></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587883858382532530.post-50699334302041739572024-02-22T23:54:00.001+11:002024-02-22T23:54:16.386+11:00The utter failure of Shell's massive carbon capture plant<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpGVDhlSKSanXgjm6A6IUMTfpYfhEjKBqZeiS1jE1z3F2syuhZYspxrBMBEu-sLoUTWhxh9eFOFbj2EwCur_o1lL2f46ZnWhaBIRJ8awuME2F_PxCexVstndYfXGqNgjRbwc42_jJISMiPzJ5U4ufU9LoW34o36MLnPdVxYEV_qw1tc9WEJMGo2PCR1rqD" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="871" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpGVDhlSKSanXgjm6A6IUMTfpYfhEjKBqZeiS1jE1z3F2syuhZYspxrBMBEu-sLoUTWhxh9eFOFbj2EwCur_o1lL2f46ZnWhaBIRJ8awuME2F_PxCexVstndYfXGqNgjRbwc42_jJISMiPzJ5U4ufU9LoW34o36MLnPdVxYEV_qw1tc9WEJMGo2PCR1rqD=w640-h380" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /></div> From <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kb43x/shell-quest-carbon-capture-plant-alberta" target="_blank">Vice</a><br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>A first-of-its-kind “green” Shell facility in Alberta is emitting more greenhouse gases than it’s capturing, throwing into question whether taxpayers should be funding it, a new report has found.<br /><br />Shell’s Quest carbon capture and storage facility captured 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the hydrogen produced at its Scotford complex between 2015 and 2019. Scotford refines oil from the Alberta tar sands.<br /><br />But a <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/shell-hydrogen-true-emissions">new report </a>from human rights organization Global Witness found the hydrogen plant emitted 7.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in the same timeframe—including methane, which has<a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-crucial-opportunity-climate-fight"> 80 times the warming power</a> of carbon during its first 20 years in the atmosphere, and accounts for about a quarter of man-made warming today. <br /><br />To put that in perspective, the “climate-forward” part of the Scotford plant alone has the same <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/88np3v/what-is-carbon-footprint-net-zero-greenwashing-emissions-guide">carbon footprint</a> per year as 1.2 million fuel-powered cars, Global Witness said. <br /><br />“We do think Shell is misleading the public in that sense and only giving us one side of the story,” said Dominic Eagleton, who wrote the report. He said industry’s been pushing for governments to subsidize the production of fossil hydrogen (hydrogen produced from natural gas) that’s supplemented with carbon capture technology as a “climate-friendly” way forward, but the new report shows that’s not the case. <br /><br />In an email, Shell said the facility was introduced to display the merits of carbon capture technology, but didn’t directly respond to the allegation that its hydrogen component emitted 7.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gases.<br /><br />“Quest was originally designed as a demonstration project to prove (carbon capture) technology and overall has met or exceeded our expectations,” said Shell Canada spokesperson Stephen Doolan. <br /><br />Doolan also said that as of today, Quest has captured 6 million tonnes of carbon, but Global Witness noted that as time passes and the facility captures more carbon, it will also emit more. <br /><br />Quest is the world's first commercial-scale carbon capture facility and one of few like it around the world today. But Global Witness’ findings throw into question whether carbon capture and storage technologies are as green as oil companies claim, or whether they amount to “greenwashing.” Lately, industry players have been saying that carbon capture technology is a key component in reaching net-zero.<br /><br />“Shell has described the carbon capture facility at its Alberta plant as showing that carbon capture technology is an effective way of reducing carbon emissions, whereas our investigation shows that’s clearly not the case,” Eagleton said. “This should be a wake-up call for governments, not just in Canada, but across the world.”<br /><br />Quest has already inspired a separate carbon capture project <a href="https://www.shell.no/presserom/nyhetsoversikt-artikler-og-nyhetsarkiv/2020/historisk-investeringsbeslutning-for-transport-og-lagring-av-co2.html#eng">in Norway</a>, and <a href="https://www.shell.ca/en_ca/media/news-and-media-releases/news-releases-2021/shell-proposes-large-scale-ccs-facility-in-alberta.html">another </a>large-scale project in the Alberta Scotford facility. Meanwhile, Germany<a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/2022/01/19/germanys-massive-boost-for-hydrogen-leaves-out-fossil-derived-blue-variety/"> announced this week </a>that even though it’s opting to subsidize clean hydrogen, it won’t foot the bill for “blue hydrogen,” which uses fossil fuels during production and then sequesters carbon emissions using carbon capture technology (the same type of hydrogen production at Shell’s Scotford plant). <br /><br />Global Witness’ report also notes that Canada’s federal and Alberta governments spent hundreds of millions of dollars of public funds—at least US$654 million—to pay for the billion-dollar Quest project.</b></span></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a scam. It's greenwashing. It's pretend. It doesn't actually reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. It's a nonsense. Shell can pretend to care about emissions while pocketing billions of our money.</p><p>The only CCS worth anything is the one where CO2 is turned into rock. And that costs so much we'll need a carbon price of at least $100 to make it work.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0