In China, more than 1 in 2 cars sold is an EV

EV and PHEV sales in China continue to motor ahead.

The first chart shows EV and PHEV sales in absolute terms, seasonally adjusted (by me), and plotted on a log scale.   A log scale shows a time series with a constant growth rate as a straight line.  The line on the chart below has been gradually levelling off, implying that the growth rate trend is gradually slowing.

This is confirmed by the chart below.  There are wild swings over the covid period, but the trend growth rate has slipped to 30% per annum over the last 3 years.  That's still a high growth rate, which would lead to a doubling of EV sales every 3 years.

The growth rate of EVs remains much higher than the growth rate of petrol cars.  In fact, petrol car sales in China peaked in 2018/19, recovered partially after the Covid lockdowns, but have since resumed their decline.  The chart below shows EVs/PHEVs as a percentage of total car registrations.  It is not plotted on a log scale.  Note the occasional spikes, which occur when EV sales go up and total sales go down.  This happens when government incentive schemes change, or when Chinese New Year moves, or simply because of random swings in the time series--one zigging up and the other down in the same month.  (Seasonal adjustment of monthly time series in China is tricky because of the peripatetic new year.)  There is no fundamental reason for the spike in April, or for the decline in May and June, and I expect to see it reversed over the next few months.  EVs will continue to gain market share, because battery prices continue to decline fast, and even despite government attempts to reduce very competitive conditions, EV prices are likely to remain under pressure.

China produces ~1/3rd of the world's cars, and EVs/PHEVs make up more than half of them.  By the end of this year, that ratio will prolly be 60%.   It's worth remembering that in January 2014, only 0.2% of cars sold in China were EVs or PHEVs.  And notice the surge in the percentage of EV sales over the last five years, from 5% to 55%.  (Just a personal note:  most analysts got this acceleration completely wrong.  Prof Ray Wills and Tony Seba got it right.  And luckily, I believed them, so I did too.)  This is a classic S-curve, but it shows no signs of flexing over, yet, though as EV sales head towards 80 or 90% of total sales, that has to be imminent.

[Data sources:  José Pontes at CleanTechnica; Prof Ray Wills, China's NBS (National Bureau of Statistics); my seasonal adjustment (tweaked X-11 variant); my smoothing, using a 13-term Henderson curve.]