China's oil demand has peaked

 A nice summary by The Electric Viking.

China has been the major driver of global oil demand over the last one or two decades.  But thanks to the explosive growth in EV sales, it looks as if total demand for oil in China has peaked--though not yet for petrochemicals or aviation fuel.  EVs have achieved price parity in China, with battery prices halving this year.   It seems plausible that nearly 100% of sales will be EVs/PHEVs by 2030.

What about coal demand?  Still growing slowly, it seems. Chinese utilities have been building coal power stations as backup to renewables.  Cost doesn't seem to be a major consideration--reliability is everything, and the drought a couple of years ago, which affected hydro output, and caused electricity shortages, produced a coal power station building boom.  But the plunge in the cost of batteries means that from now on, even longer-duration storage (8 plus hours) is now cost-effective.  I suspect China's coal imports will continue to fall.

In addition, the traditional building boom, which the Chinese authorities have engineered every time there is an economic slowdown, is not happening now.  So emissions from cement production have prolly peaked as well.  China's cement production peaked in 2020 and has fallen roughly 25% since then, due to the building/housing recession, and may well recover in any economic recovery, but, in my judgement, given the demographic situation, the previous peak will not be exceeded.

Which means China's emissions have peaked.  The fall initially will be small, but it will accelerate as the vehicle and the generation fleets transition.