Or is already in it, and it's deepening.
Just a few indicators.
1. Manufacturing only PMIs (the "recession line" is 50% -- below that, the economy is retreating.)
2. Whole economy PMI. Still above the 50% "recession line", but sliding.
3. Job ads are falling, both in absolute terms and year-on-year. Note that job ads lag the cycle, as you'd expect. My Oz coinciding index is a couple of months out of date.
4. Overall GDP growth is still, barely, positive. But GDP per capita has been falling for a while.
5. Real PCE (personal consumption expenditure). Note the plunge in services consumption during lockdowns, as cafés, etc, were closed, and interstate travel was forbidden. There were two major lockdowns, one in 2020, and another in 2021. Note that this is not adjusted for population growth.
And yet, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is thinking of raising interest rates! And the Labor government is deeply unwilling to initiate any fiscal stimulus -- afraid of being accused by the right-wing opposition of being cavalier with the exchequer. Instead, their popularity declines steadily as ordinary people struggle.
Over the last 5 years, the RBA hasn't covered itself with glory. Looks as if that's going to continue.
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