Big 5 PMI drops in September

The extreme-adjusted GDP-weighted PMIs for the Big 5 economies (US, Euro zone, UK, India and Japan, accounting for 53% of world GDP) slid again in September.  These are "flash", i.e. provisional, data, but in the past, although PMIs for individual countries do get revised, the revisions to the flash data Big 5 and Big 8 totals are minor.

The green line represents the "whole-economy" PMI, which is roughly correlated with Big 5 GDP growth.  As you can see, this level of whole economy PMI is consistent with sluggish growth, but not a recession--in other words, a "soft landing".  Central Banks have already started the falling interest rate cycle (bottom chart), and though the economy takes time to respond to falling interest rates, we can expect that growth will pick up in 2025, though I do not expect a rapid recovery.

The purple line shows the GDP-weighted average of CB discount rates,
covering 72% of world GDP.