The chart shows the year on year % change in world real (inflation-adjusted) GDP (grey bars) compared with and index of world PMI (purchasing manager index) survey. The PMIs are revealed quicker than world GDP, so they are a useful guide to what's happening right now, whereas GDP data are only released quarterly and with delays. Even though the US is still strong, world growth is starting to slow as rising US short and long rates start to bite. A trade war would take world growth sharply lower.
➥ The composites for both series are my calculations using country contributions to GDP. Latest Q1 Russian GDP is estimated. Countries included make up 90% of world GDP. The PMI indices come from Markit Economics.
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