When Tesla reaches the magic 5000 Model 3 per week production target (July? August?), total EV sales will just from the Model 3 alone double from current levels. Add in the rebound in the Nissan Leaf as US production of the updated longer-range cheaper model picks up, plus reasonable increases in the Bolt and Volt and total EV/PHEVsales should more than double.
By end 2018, EV/PHEV sales will make up at least 3.2% of total car sales, and most likely close to 4%. Just 3 years ago, EV sales were only 0.6% of total car sales. A clear flexion point in the technology adoption S-curve.
World EV sales have slowed after a hectic 2017 (though that may be due to seasonal factors as we only have 4 years of data to estimate them--I'm revisiting the NBER's weights to see if I can improve my program)
I expect this is just a blip.
Year on year growth is still running at over 60% per annum.
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