Thursday, April 5, 2018

EV sales soar in the US

Thanks mostly to the exponential growth in Model 3 production, but also with big increases from the new Nissan Leaf and GM's Bolt EV and Volt PHEV, electric car sales in the US are growing very fast.  (As ever, source of basic EV data is InsideEVs; my seasonal adjustment, my chart package)

When Tesla reaches the magic 5000 Model 3 per week production target (July?  August?), total EV sales will just from the Model 3 alone double from current levels.  Add in the rebound in the Nissan Leaf as US production of the updated longer-range cheaper model picks up, plus reasonable increases in the Bolt and Volt and total EV/PHEVsales should more than double.


By end 2018, EV/PHEV sales will make up at least 3.2% of total car sales, and most likely close to 4%.  Just 3 years ago, EV sales were only 0.6% of total car sales.  A clear flexion point in the technology adoption S-curve. 



World EV sales have slowed after a hectic 2017  (though that may be due to seasonal factors as we only have 4 years of data to estimate them--I'm revisiting the NBER's weights to see if I can improve my program) 

I expect this is just a blip. 



Year on year growth is still running at over 60% per annum.


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