Now, there's been no change in the incentives Norway provides to buyers of plug-ins since 2014. So what's changed? Awareness, the spread of chargers, familiarity--and the reduction of incentives to buy EVs starting in January 2018. Even if recent sales have been brought forward to take advantage of current generous incentives, it nevertheless still goes to show just how rapidly EVs and PHEVs will rise once the initial barriers of unfamiliarity and strangeness wear off.
Do not be misled by the low ratio of plug-ins to ICEVs (1.8%) in world car and light truck sales of today. In 2012, plug-ins in Norway were just 3% of total car sales. Now they make up nearly 50%. Yes, the incentives in Norway to buy plug-ins are substantial. But so was the cost differential between EVs/PHEVs and ICEVs when Norway started with its program to de-carbonise transport. And that cost differential is narrowing: within 5 or 6 years, EVs will cost pretty much the same as ICEVs.
There is every chance that world EV sales could rise very fast too. Not as rapidly, because Norway is a single jurisdiction, and it's a small country in population terms, so new technologies and new ideas spread fast. But California, already at 5%, could move very quickly (5 years) to 50%, even if the rest of the USA lags. Sweden is already at 5%. Other European countries are close to the flex point of the S curve, and plan future bans on ICEV sales. And as always, China, 1/3rd of world auto output and sales, is determined to replace ICEVs with plug-ins to reduce pollution, and simultaneously grab for itself an even bigger chunk of the global car market.
Ironically, in Norway itself, the growth rate is likely to slow, in a typical "S"-curve way, as incentives to buy EVs are gradually reduced, starting next year.
[Read more here and here and here]
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