Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Japan to the stars

The Japanese recovery is strengthening.  The latest PMI (Purchasing managers index) is higher than it's been since the GFC began, and is trending strongly upward.  The new policy of the authorities in Japan, to encourage moderate price inflation instead of deflation, is working.  Output still hasn't recovered to the previous pre-GFC peak (you can see the GFC slump in 98, and then the downward spike because of the earthquake and tsunami in 2011, and since January last year a sustained recovery in both industrial production and the PMI.    There is finally a sustained recovery in developed economies.

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