From The Electric Viking
My comment on this video:
Assuming that cars and light trucks in China stay on the road for 12 years, that means that each year, 1/12, or 8%, get replaced. Since EVs and PHEVs now make up 55% of new car/light truck sales, that means that oil demand for this sector of the market in China should be declining by 4% a year, with the decline accelerating as the percentage of EVs in new sales rises. Between 2000 and 2023, China accounted for 50% (!) of the growth in world oil demand, or an average of 518,000 barrels per day. This is now expected by the IEA, and other analysts, to be just 100,000-180,000 barrels per day this year, and even less next year. I'll be doing a piece on this tomorrow.
A faint glimmer of hope. China has been the biggest (though far from the only) contributor to rising emissions over the last 20 years. If China's emissions have peaked, through EVs and the constantly rising (20% per annum) installation of renewables, then maybe, just maybe, global emissions have peaked. If we add the sustained slowdown in property in China, which will prolly continue even after the recent stimulus measures, cement production will stop growing too.
All those who have been saying, why should we cut our emissions, when China isn't cutting hers?, will have to find a new excuse not to act.
No comments:
Post a Comment