86% of China's new generation capacity is renewable

From RenewEconomy

China has installed 210GW worth of renewable energy through the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 21 per cent on this period in 2023 and accounting for 86 per cent of all new power capacity added in the year.

Data published by China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) showed that new capacity installed through the first nine months was led by solar, which added 161GW of new capacity added.

A further 39.12GW worth of new wind power, 7.97GW of new hydropower, and 1.37GW of new biomass power rounds out the new capacity added so far in 2024.

At the end of the first three quarters, then, China’s renewable energy generating capacity had reached 1.73TW, a year-on-year increase of 25 per cent.

In terms of actual generation, the NEA figures showed that China’s renewable power generation reached 2.51 trillion kWh, an increase of 20.9 per cent over the same period in 2023, and equivalent to around 35.5 pct of total Chinese power generation through the first nine months of 2024.

These data suggest that China's emissions might peak shortly, if they haven't already.  

Over the last decade or so, China's electricity demand has risen by 5.9% per annum.  If the 35.5% renewable share rises by 21% again, then it will rise by 7.1%, which is more than the rise in total electricity demand.  Given also that EVs and PHEVs now make up more than 50% of car/light truck sales, and that EV sales are growing exponentially, total emissions could just fall over the next year.  I've been caught before forecasting this peak, so we'll see what actually happens.  If China's economy recovers sharply, electricity demand will grow by more than 5.9%.