The chart below shows the year-on-year change in Brazilian IP (industrial production) on the left hand scale compared with the level of interest rates (on the right) as represented by the central bank discount rate ('SELIC'). The interest rates are plotted inverted, because as interest rates rise, the economy slows, as they fall, it sets up the economy for recovery. Interest rates have been rising for nearly a year now, and IP has started to fall. But interest rates lead the real economy. Even if rates stop rising now, the economy will keep on slowing for at least another six months. And by the looks of it, I'd say Brazil is headed for quite a deep recession if rates go on rising.
Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.