Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, January 20, 2014

More on US early release indicator

Here I've plotted the data  (the "early release index" and real GDP) relative to their moving trend (the OECD method).  Once again, no signs of an imminent slowdown.  Mind you, the trend for the last few years has been much slower than in the past, so that needs to be borne in mind when you interpret the chart.  Note how the early indicator leads on both downturns and upturns, though at lower turning points it's only a couple of months' lead.

Still, most intriguing.  As usual, clicking on the chart will give you a full sized version, which is much easier to read.

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