Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Early data index

There are some time series which are released very quickly after the month end for the previous month.

In the US these are the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) and the PMI indices and the labour force data.  I have combined these into an (unweighted) index which will show in a single statistic, available within a few days of the previous month's end, whether the previous month was weak or strong.   As you can see, if anything the slope of the line is increasing, after a slower ascent in the previous couple of years.

The shaded periods show US recessions.

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