Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Early data index

There are some time series which are released very quickly after the month end for the previous month.

In the US these are the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) and the PMI indices and the labour force data.  I have combined these into an (unweighted) index which will show in a single statistic, available within a few days of the previous month's end, whether the previous month was weak or strong.   As you can see, if anything the slope of the line is increasing, after a slower ascent in the previous couple of years.

The shaded periods show US recessions.

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