Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.
The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
World industrial production continues to slow. But the BRIC countries just go on growing while the OECD countries (as a whole), without even reaching the previous peak, have stagnated again. Look at the levels of BRIC IP and the OECD on the second chart. The world, adding together the BRIC countries and the OECD is still growing, just, but it's a close thing.
Quantitative easing in Europe, relaxed money in the US, and renewed stimulus in China, India and Brazil will lead to a recovery.
[By the way, you won't find a monthly world IP series anywhere else. There's a quarterly series from the UN, but it's quite out of date. I was the first to calculate a monthly IP series, back in 1992, and as far as I know, I'm the only one who does a world IP. The reason I did it then, and continue to do it, is because focussing on a single country makes you miss what's really happening. It would be easy now to believe that the world is collapsing, if you thought Europe was all. But it isn't. And China, India, Brazil and Russia (and other Eastern Europe) is doing OK.]
Posted by Nikolaos at 6:55 PM