Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Monday, March 19, 2012

Tweaks



I mentioned here that the last month or so of data for some of the World Industrial Production (IP) series are estimates.
 
Recent IP data over the last couple of weeks have been marginally positive relative to my expectations, even in Europe.  China was a little worse, UK and Spain and Italy worse, Greece (surprisingly) better, the rest of Europe marginally better, Asia outside China better.


Notice the recent divergence between the "shape" of the charts for the US & Japan on the one hand, and Europe on the other.  The authorities in Europe haven't exactly covered themselves with glory, have they?

One thing seems very clear:  the US mid-cycle correction is over.  And with the Fed promising not to raise the cash rate until the end of 2014, more or less whatever happens to inflation, growth (there) is set to continue.

But my overall world IP diffusion index (not shown), which measures just how much of the world economy is rising, is still at just 20% and hasn't started rising.  Previously, it has started to rise 3 to 6 months before the actual growth rate in world IP has turned up.  So it has to be a concern that it's not doing it now.  All the same, I'm convinced that the global recovery has resumed or is about to.  We'll see.

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