IEA's useless renewables forecasts

The IEA (International Energy Agency) was founded in 1974 after the first oil crisis, and its initial remit was to help Western economies respond to oil shortages.  Whether its initial focus on fossil fuels is an explanation of its incredibly poor forecasts for the take-up of wind and solar, I don't know.  Unfortunately its forecasts have real world consequences.  Its continuous underestimation of just how much renewables would grow meant that it made the task of de-carbonising the world economy seem futile and encouraged policy makers to place their faith in nuclear.  The IEA has been spectacularly wrong, again and again.  The graphs below, from BNEF, show just how much. 

New technologies tend to exponential ("S"-curve) take-up rates.  And in my opinion we are far from the upper flex point in the "S" curve with both these technologies.  Costs will continue to decline, leading to ongoing acceleration in demand, as renewables get steadily cheaper than their competitors.

So I think the IEA's forecasts will continue to be wrong.  Which is why I'm more inclined to believe BNEF's forecasts (last chart below) than the IEA's.