Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Europe in recession
A combination of fiscal tightening; a (bizarre!) rise in the ECB's discount rate; and ongoing excessive debt have pushed Europe into recession. I expect it it to be deep.
Euro currency area, France & Germany:
Spain, Italy, UK (not part of the Euro currency area):
ECB: epic fail. Epic.
[N.B. data for the latest month are in some cases projections. My experience over many years suggests my estimations are good except, occasionally at turning points. ( Isn't that always the case?) So when actual data come out over the next week or two, I could be proved to have been too pessimistic. On verra. I'll keep you posted.]
Posted by Nikolaos at 7:17 AM