Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Europe in recession



A combination of fiscal tightening; a (bizarre!) rise in the ECB's discount rate; and ongoing excessive debt have pushed Europe into recession.  I expect it it to be deep.

Euro currency area, France & Germany:



Spain, Italy, UK (not part of the Euro currency area):


ECB: epic fail.  Epic.

[N.B.  data for the latest month are in some cases projections.  My experience over many years suggests my estimations are good except, occasionally at turning points. ( Isn't that always the case?)  So when actual data come out over the next week or two, I could be proved to have been too pessimistic.  On verra.  I'll keep you posted.]

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