Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Europe in recession

A combination of fiscal tightening; a (bizarre!) rise in the ECB's discount rate; and ongoing excessive debt have pushed Europe into recession.  I expect it it to be deep.

Euro currency area, France & Germany:

Spain, Italy, UK (not part of the Euro currency area):

ECB: epic fail.  Epic.

[N.B.  data for the latest month are in some cases projections.  My experience over many years suggests my estimations are good except, occasionally at turning points. ( Isn't that always the case?)  So when actual data come out over the next week or two, I could be proved to have been too pessimistic.  On verra.  I'll keep you posted.]

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