My time series analysis programs are in pieces on the kitchen floor -- I'm rewriting them, and since they all use common subroutines and functions, they're pretty much all unusable right now. So I can't extreme-adjust series, or seasonally adjust them or fit moving averages or calculate diffusion indices. No matter, they'll be fixed soon (that's what I thought last week!)
So some thoughts on recent data releases (impressions because I need to inspect the data properly, and I can't just yet) :
- US retail sales -- strong. The US recovery is finally self-sustaining.
- Europe data -- I had very pessimistic views on the euro area and in some cases numbers are a little better than I thought. But not much.
- Time for China to reflate. They've started; they need to do more. Longer-term, the Chinese need to do some work to re-engineer the growth engines of their economy. They are, but that could make for a bumpy ride.
- India starting to reflate (about time)
- Brazil now at the low.
- The US market (i.e., the share market) punched straight through previous resistance -- it's heading for the all time high. When it's gets there, I'll prolly be a seller.
- The Ozzie All Ords has formed a wedge with a flat top and a rising bottom. This kind of wedge usually breaks out on the upside. Once again, I'll prolly sell when it reaches the highs of last year.
- Commodity prices have resumed their uptrend.
Longer-term, we still have to deal with too much debt. And that will take a decade or more, and maybe longer if European pollies are stupid about it. And oil is going to be a major problem one of these days (more later on this)