Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Friday, March 16, 2012

Thoughts



My time series analysis programs are in pieces on the kitchen floor -- I'm rewriting them, and since they all use common subroutines and functions, they're pretty much all unusable right now.  So I can't extreme-adjust series, or seasonally adjust them or fit moving averages or calculate diffusion indices.  No matter, they'll be fixed soon (that's what I thought last week!)

So some thoughts on recent data releases (impressions because I need to inspect the data properly, and I can't just yet) :


  • US retail sales -- strong.  The US recovery is finally self-sustaining.
  • Europe data -- I had very pessimistic views on the euro area and in some cases numbers are a little better than I thought.  But not much.
  • Time for China to reflate.  They've started; they need to do more.  Longer-term, the Chinese need to do some work to re-engineer the growth engines of their economy.  They are, but that could make for a bumpy ride.
  • India starting to reflate (about time)
  • Brazil now at the low.  
  • The US market (i.e., the share market) punched straight through previous resistance -- it's heading for the all time high.  When it's gets there, I'll prolly be a seller.
  • The Ozzie All Ords has formed a wedge with a flat top and a rising bottom.  This kind of wedge usually breaks out on the upside.  Once again, I'll prolly sell when it reaches the highs of last year.
  • Commodity prices have resumed their uptrend.
Longer-term, we still have to deal with too much debt.  And that will take a decade or more, and maybe longer if European pollies are stupid about it.  And oil is going to be a major problem one of these days (more later on this)

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