Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Brazil ready to start growing again

The chart below shows the central bank discount rate and the year-on-year change in industrial production for Brazil.  The bank rate is plotted on an inverted scale, so a fall on the chart means that interest rates are rising.  As you'd expect changes in the bank rate are followed with a lag by changes in industrial production.

My guess is that the Brazilian economy is bottoming right now, an impression confirmed by the recent rises in the HSBC/Markit PMI indices.  Meanwhile, US employment data are out overnight.  So far, the numbers have been better than expected and previous data have been revised better.  Usually a good sign.

Just as well, as Europe looks very sick (more on that later).

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