Brazil ready to start growing again

The chart below shows the central bank discount rate and the year-on-year change in industrial production for Brazil.  The bank rate is plotted on an inverted scale, so a fall on the chart means that interest rates are rising.  As you'd expect changes in the bank rate are followed with a lag by changes in industrial production.

My guess is that the Brazilian economy is bottoming right now, an impression confirmed by the recent rises in the HSBC/Markit PMI indices.  Meanwhile, US employment data are out overnight.  So far, the numbers have been better than expected and previous data have been revised better.  Usually a good sign.

Just as well, as Europe looks very sick (more on that later).