Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

World IP

World IP (Industrial Production) continues to show divergent trends in developed and emerging markets.  The decline in growth in the BRIC countries looks as if it has stopped, but the OECD countries (most of which, with the key exceptions of Mexico and Turkey, are developed countries) are still dragging along at around 1 percent.  That includes Germany which is still strong.  Not exactly boom conditions for the rest.




However, the world IP diffusion index suggests growth is accelerating again.  A diffusion index will tend to lead changes in the underlying data.  Notice how the diffusion index suggested a renewed acceleration in world growth early this year but turned down after the Japanese earthquake and US mid-west floods.  If -- a big if -- Europe manages to avoid recession, my guess is that the world recovery will accelerate.  In my view, to avoid a European relapse into recession, the ECB will have to cut rates.  Which they prolly won't.  Still, they might.  So we keep watching.



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