Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

First data points for September

In the US, we've got the two ISM surveys and the employment data.  I've updated my coinciding index for September.  Employment data for previous months were revised up, often an indication that the economy is strengthening.   Previous months' retail sales data were also revised higher.  The chart below suggests that though growth has slowed somewhat, the economy is not entering a "double dip".  

The picture for Europe is much less rosy, and a European credit crisis will see the US turn down again.   I'm waiting for an effective European policy response before I recommit to the market.

Click to enlarge

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