Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.
The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
We're having a double dip in the US. But it looks very much as if we'll avoid a new recession. The two ISM surveys for October confirm that the economy isn't going into meltdown. Both the services and the manufacturing ISMs were up on the month. Just in case, the Fed announced QE2 last night, which will prevent a new recession, despite the problems caused by far too much debt. But getting a "normal" recovery will be much harder.
For the world as a whole, things look a lot better. World GDP growth is 4% plus, because strong growth in the BRIC countries and in Asia outside Japan is compensating for the soggy US economy.
(As ever, click on the chart itself to see it full size)