Soggy

We're having a double dip in the US.  But it looks very much as if we'll avoid a new recession.  The two ISM surveys for October confirm that the economy isn't going into meltdown.  Both the services and the manufacturing ISMs were up on the month.  Just in case, the Fed announced QE2 last night, which will prevent a new recession, despite the problems caused by far too much debt.  But getting a "normal" recovery will be much harder.

For the world as a whole, things look a lot better.  World GDP growth is 4% plus, because strong growth in the BRIC countries and in Asia outside Japan is compensating for the soggy US economy.

 

(As ever, click on the chart itself to see it full size)