Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Mid-Cycle Slowdown Ending

US labour market stats suggest that the fairly typical mid-cycle correction will be over soon.  Employment rose, though the unemployment rate was unchanged as was the very sensitive (and reliable) overtime hours series.  More recent weekly data confirm this improvement.

But don't expect a runaway boom.  Unless QE works flawlessly, which it won't.  More of that in another post.

BTW, notice how there was a small double-dip in 2003.  They happen.  What's different this time is not the minor cycles but the huge drag imposed by excessive debt and falling house prices.

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