This shows the costs of photovoltaic (solar) panels, in constant dollars, from Our World in Data. In 2024, PV panels cost just 0.2 per cent of what they cost in 1975, and 70% of what they cost in 2020, a compound annual rate of decline of 12%, despite the bounce during and after Covid. This trend is likely to continue.
Since battery costs are falling even faster than panel costs, solar is getting closer and closer to being able to provide baseload power, as increased storage capacity becomes affordable. In 2020, solar provided 3.2% of the world's electricity, in 2025 it reached 8.7%, and it seems likely that by 2030, it will be 23.6%, assuming the growth rate of the last 5 years continues. Given the impact of the Iran war on gas prices outside the US, even this jump may prove too conservative.
This is the first oil crisis where there is an alternative: solar plus storage, and EVs. Repeated oil crises have shown how unwise it is to rely on oil and gas. The great irony of Trump's war is that it will accelerate the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.
No comments:
Post a Comment