EV = electric vehicle
PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
A very interesting article from CleanTechnica. The author looks at developments in China, Europe, the US and India.
China:
In the world’s largest auto market, China, total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales declined in 2018 relative to 2017. This was the first year-on-year drop since 1992. Yet, in this shrinking overall auto market, EV sales (including BEVs and PHEVs) almost doubled in volume to 1.1 million, from 600,000 in 2017.
According to China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), total LDV sales in 2018 were down to 28.08 million from 28.88 million in 2017, a drop of 800,000 units, or 2.76%. However, since EV sales increased by some 500,000 units year on year, we can conclude that fossil fuelled LDV sales fell by 1.3 million units, down an even more significant 4.6%.
We can very likely expect China’s EV sales volume to again almost double in 2019, and approach 2 million units. Depending on what happens to combustion vehicle sales, EVs will likely take at least 7–8% market share. It’s very easy to steal market share when your nemesis is declining in absolute terms.
Europe:
The European auto manufacturers’ association reports a very similar picture (here we are counting the EU plus the European Free Trade Area). Although total LDV sales very slightly increased in 2018 (17.75 million) over 2017 (17.68 million), more than 100% of that increase was from EVs, which had 408,000 sales in 2018, up from 307,000 in 2017 (figures from EV Volumes).
Stated differently, combustion LDV sales decreased from 17.37 million in 2017 to 17.34 million in 2018.
With the 2019 arrival of Tesla’s Model 3 in Europe (that’s just started this past week), other brands still trying to stay in the EV race, and new PHEVs arriving later in the year with much higher all-electric range, EV sales will grow even more strongly in 2019, likely to approaching 600,000 units. It’s almost inevitable that combustion vehicle sales will decline further still.
The USA:
Total sales of light vehicles in the USA in 2017 were 17.230 million, and increased fractionally in 2018 to 17.274 million (figures from marklines). EV Volumes estimates 360,000 EV sales in 2018, up from 200,000 in 2017. That means that — taken on their own — combustion vehicle sales fell from 17.03 million in 2017 to 16.91 million in 2018.
Since USA total light vehicle sales have been essentially flat or slightly declining over the past four years, and EVs are now coming online in ever-increasing volumes, it’s hard to see gas vehicle sales going in any direction but south from now on. The total light vehicle market’s marginal growth in 2018 was only made possible by the arrival of the Tesla Model 3 in high volumes.
India:
India will grow to be a significant auto market in the middle of the next decade, but this will be too late to save the combustion engine. India’s LDV sales were some 3.2 million in 2017, growing around 9% from 2016. Both combustion sales and EV sales will continue to grow in India, but any short-term growth in combustion vehicles will be far outpaced by their decline in the 3 largest markets above (almost 20× the volume of India). India’s LDV buying middle class is really starting to buy vehicles at just the time when EVs are taking over from gassers. With many larger Indian cities having serious air quality problems to deal with, regulations will also be pushing in the direction of EVs, and away from polluting gassers. And before the middle of the next decade, EVs will be the less expensive option, even just on sticker price (they already are in many cases on total cost of ownership)
[Read more here]
My take on this:
In this post, I show that EV/PHEV sales made up 3.25% of global light vehicle and truck sales in December 2018, and estimate that at current growth rates (+-65% p.a.) they will reach 5.4% by December 2019. Now assume total (ICEV+EV) global car/light truck sales are constant in 2019 (and my guess is that they will fall, because global growth is slowing) then ICEV sales have to fall, by roughly 2.2%, as EVs take market share from ICEVs. Again, in 2020, assume total car sales are flat (though they will prolly rise if they fell in 2019), with EV/PHEV sales rising to 8.8% of total sales, then ICEV sales must fall by roughly 3.8%. And every year after that it just gets worse, with the percentage decline in ICEV sales getting rapidly larger.
ICEV sales have peaked. Fantastic news for polluted cities, and for a rapidly-warming global climate. Bad news for slowly-adapting legacy car manufacturers; for oil companies; and for oil-producing countries.
Do we understand why sales in China are down? Their economy is growing.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that official data are "massaged" I'm working on some sort of "substitute GDP" as an alternative to the official GDP data. I suspect in fact that Chinese growth has slowed sharply, certainly to way below even recent averages. Trouble is, I am blind without data, and it's obvious that some of the big picture headline data are a bit suss.
DeleteThat is tricky. Parts we should be able to track from the outside, building activity, night lights, exports and imports. Could be a market for such a product.
DeleteIf a tree falls in the forest and nobody saw it, did it happen?
If a recession happens in China, but nearly no one knows, does it still have the same impact? Is that an interesting question for an economist or just BS from an ignorant.
It's a significant part of the world economy. Trouble is, we're not quite sure just *how* significant, because of the data fuzziness. Very significant prolly. Roughly 1/3rd of world car production and consumption. Largest consumer of raw materials by far. Largest installer or wind and solar by far. And so on.
DeleteI must get my arse into action. An understanding of China really is vital to understanding the world.