Monday, October 7, 2024

World inflation back to pre-covid levels

The chart below shows the inflation rate for the "Big 8" economies, compared with the percentage of world economies (50 in total) where inflation is above 6%.  The "Big 8" economies are: the USA, the Euro Area, China, Japan, the UK, Brazil and India, which together make up ~70% of world GDP.

World inflation is more or less back at the 1997 to 2020 levels, as is the number of countries with inflation above 4%.  

However, the world discount rate (bank rate) is still way above the 1997-2020 average (lower chart).  The implication is that world interest rates are likely entering a period of sustained decline, which will drive up asset markets (shares and property), as well as sustain growth.  What will stop that decline is a renewed surge in inflation, which obviously can't be ruled out, but given anaemic global growth rates, that does seem unlikely.  At least over the next year or two, though for various reasons, the underlying inflation rate will be higher than it's been over the last 30 years, meaning that world discount rates won't get back down to the 2009-2022 position.








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