My "medium"-leading US leading index now confirms my judgement that there will be a recession in 2023.
My US longer-leading index, which leads the cycle by 2 years, does not have as close a fit as the index shown above. In the chart, it has been plotted with a 24-month lag. It points towards a deep and prolonged recession. Will that happen? I've spent many years constructing these indices, and learning from forecasting mistakes, and I'm reasonably confident that the US will have a deep recession next year. We shall see!
Meanwhile, ALL my leading indices point down. My shorter-leading index, which leads by just a few months, suggests that short-term, the economic data are going to continue to deteriorate.
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