Here is an independent survey by the Fed of lending practices by US banks. (Technically, "Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and Middle-Market Firms", shortened in my data banks to "USCREDTIGHT".)
When credit standards are tightening, it tends to precede a recession, when they are improving, vice versa. So in the chart below, tightening credit is plotted with a 3 quarter lag (the data are quarterly), and inverted, i.e., when credit is tightening, its line in the chart (cyan) is falling.
I don't use this series in my indicators because it is quarterly, rather than monthly, but it provides useful corroboration for my own leading indices (for which I will provide an update tomorrow, since it is quite late now here in Eastern Oz now).
(Note how the relationship goes out of phase, briefly, during the Covid Crash)
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| Credit tightening plotted with a 3 qtr lag |
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